Ukraine Premier League: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv Match Prediction
Shakhtar Donetsk
Dynamo KyivMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.38 pending
Shakhtar Donetsk host Dynamo Kyiv at Arena Lviv in round 12 of the Ukraine Premier League. Shakhtar have 28 points from 11 games, level with leaders Polissya; Dynamo have 22 from 10 and can narrow the gap.
Shakhtar’s defensive edge and recent workload
Shakhtar have 9 league wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 22 goals and conceding 5. They have kept 7 clean sheets, conceding at a rate of 0.45 goals per game.
At home, they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with a 14:4 goal difference across 7 league games. Across all competitions, their last 5 matches brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. They scored in only 2 and conceded in 2.
Strengths, risks and available players
Shakhtar’s recent scoring blanks came against Zorya and Sporting, with another 0 in the Champions League defeat to Inter. Those results contrast with their home league scoring record.
- According to media reports, Kauan Elias, Pedrinho, Marlon and Eguinaldo will miss the match.
- Alisson Santana has 2 goals in 3 league appearances.
- Valeriy Bondar and Pedro Victor Delmino da Silva have contributed goals and assists in limited appearances.
- Sporting Clube de Portugalhome0:1
- Obolon Kyivhome2:0
- Dynamo Kyivhome3:0
- Zorya Luhanskhome0:0
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:1
Dynamo’s response after the cup defeat
Dynamo have 7 league wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 16 goals scored and 9 conceded. Away from home, they have 3 wins and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7 across 5 trips.
Their last 5 matches brought 3 wins and 2 defeats, with goals scored in 4 and conceded in 3. Their latest away game ended in a 2:0 win over Kryvbas.
Attacking options and absences
- Dynamo have kept 5 league clean sheets.
- Matvey Ponomarenko leads the listed scorers with 2 goals in 4 league appearances.
- Andriy Yarmolenko, Taras Mykhavko and Eduardo Guerrero are suspended, while Vladyslav Kabaev is injured.
According to media reports, Kostyantyn Vivcharenko, Bohdan Redushko and Vitaliy Buyalskyi have returned to group training.
- Kryvbasaway2:0
- Shakhtar Donetskaway0:3
- Kudrivkahome3:1
- Polissya Zhytomyraway1:3
- Karpaty Lvivhome1:0
Head-to-head pattern favors Shakhtar
Across 11 official meetings in the last 5 years, Shakhtar have won 6, Dynamo have won 1 and 4 ended level.
The latest cup meeting at Shakhtar’s home ground ended 3:0. The previous three league encounters finished 2:2, 3:1 and 2:1 from Shakhtar’s perspective.
- 27.10.2026Shakhtar Donetsk3:0Dynamo KyivUkraine Cup
- 03.05.2026Dynamo Kyiv1:2Shakhtar DonetskUkraine. Premier League
- 02.11.2025Shakhtar Donetsk3:1Dynamo KyivUkraine. Premier League
- 29.10.2025Dynamo Kyiv2:1Shakhtar DonetskUkraine Cup
- 14.05.2025Shakhtar Donetsk1:1Dynamo KyivUkraine Cup
Motivation, preparation and match context
The cup victory gives Arda Turan’s side a psychological advantage before another meeting with Dynamo. A league win would keep Shakhtar in direct contact with the leader after round 12.
Dynamo are seeking a response to that defeat. Coach Maciej Kędziorek said his team had controlled the game without the ball and closed free zones in the previous meeting. That approach suggests a compact structure, though suspensions and injury limit his options. The match can be attended by 4,196 supporters.
Line-ups
Shakhtar Donetsk
Starting XI: 2. Lacina Traore, 5. Valeriy Bondar, 6. Marlon Gomes, 13. Pedro Henrique, 17. Vinicius Tobias, 22. Mykola Matviyenko, 27. Oleg Ocheretko, 29. Egor Nazarina, 30. Alisson Santana, 31. Dmytro Riznyk, 77. Gleiker Mendoza
Substitutes: 8. Dmytro Kryskiv, 11. Newerton Martins da Silva, 14. Isaque Severino Silva, 16. Irakli Azarovi, 18. Alaa Ghram, 20. Oleksandr Karavayev, 23. Kiril Fesiun, 25. Gabriel Carvalho Teixeira, 28. Alan Matturro Romero, 37. Lucas dos Santos Ferreira, 49. Lucas Meirelles, 68. Prosper Obah
Coach: Arda Turan
Dynamo Kyiv
Starting XI: 1. Georgi Bushchan, 6. Brazhko, 8. Oleksandr Pikhalonok, 9. Nazar Voloshyn, 10. Mykola Shaparenko, 11. Matvey Ponomarenko, 16. Shola Ogundana, 18. Oleksandr Tymchyk, 44. Vladyslav Dubinchak, 66. Aliou Thiare, 94. Tomasz Kedziora
Substitutes: 2. Kostiantyn Vivcharenko, 5. Oleksiy Sych, 15. Valentyn Rubchynskyi, 21. Justin Lonwijk, 34. Vladyslav Zakharchenko, 35. Ruslan Neshcheret, 40. Bilovar, 42. Keasse Paul Henri Bah, 43. Illia Olkhovyi, 47. Gustavo Prado, 91. Mykola Mykhailenko, 99. Pierre Mounguengue
Coach: Maciej Kedziorek
Before the match
Shakhtar lost 0:1 to Sporting in the Champions League, while Dynamo Kyiv beat Kryvbas 2:0 away. Shakhtar are second with 28 points from 11 matches, level with leaders Polissya. Dynamo have 22 points from 10 games and need a result to reduce the gap. The match will be played at Arena Lviv, with attendance limited to 4,196 supporters.
Shakhtar will be without Кауан Элиас, Pedrinho, Marlon and Eguinaldo. Media reports attribute all four absences to injuries; Кауан Элиас faces surgery after fracturing the fifth metatarsal. Dynamo have returned Константин Вивчаренко, Богдан Редушко and Виталий Буяльский to full training. Андрей Ярмоленко, Тарас Михавко and Эдуард Герреро are suspended, while Vladyslav Kabaiev is injured. Dynamo’s 0:3 cup defeat adds motivation.
Our forecast
Our bet is W1 for 1.7. Shakhtar have won nine of 11 league matches, conceded five goals and kept seven clean sheets. At home, they have five wins from seven games, with 14 goals scored and four conceded. Dynamo have lost two of five league away matches and have a 7:7 goal balance on the road.
Shakhtar’s recent 3:0 cup win provides a direct tactical reference. In the last five years, they have six wins, four draws and one defeat in 11 official meetings with Dynamo. The market assigns the home side a 55.7% win probability, and the home-win line has shortened during the last 24 hours.
Conclusion
W1 for 1.7 is the selection. Shakhtar have the stronger defensive record, better home numbers and a clear recent advantage over Dynamo, whose away results and absences reduce their chances of an upset.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Sporting Clube de Portugalhome0:1
- Obolon Kyivhome2:0
- Dynamo Kyivhome3:0
- Zorya Luhanskhome0:0
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:1
- Kryvbasaway2:0
- Shakhtar Donetskaway0:3
- Kudrivkahome3:1
- Polissya Zhytomyraway1:3
- Karpaty Lvivhome1:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25:8 | 28 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:5 | 28 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | 22 |
| 4 | Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18:7 | 21 |
Head-to-head
- 27.10.2026Shakhtar Donetsk3:0Dynamo KyivUkraine Cup
- 03.05.2026Dynamo Kyiv1:2Shakhtar DonetskUkraine. Premier League
- 02.11.2025Shakhtar Donetsk3:1Dynamo KyivUkraine. Premier League
- 29.10.2025Dynamo Kyiv2:1Shakhtar DonetskUkraine Cup
- 14.05.2025Shakhtar Donetsk1:1Dynamo KyivUkraine Cup
About the match
- 8 November · 11:00 New York
- Venue: Arena Lviv (Lviv)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and goal-line balance
Shakhtar are the market favorites. The home-win line is moving toward them, while the draw and away-win lines are moving away from those outcomes.
The 1X2 probabilities are 56% for a home win, 24.8% for a draw and 19.2% for an away win. Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 are each assessed at 50%; BTTS Yes stands at 51.7%, against 48.3% for BTTS No.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.74
- Odds at prediction
- 1.7
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 56%
- Market estimate
- 57%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.74
- Potential win
- 74 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.66
- Status
- pending