Le Havre vs Lorient Prediction: Ligue 1 Match Analysis
Le Havre
LorientMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (0.5) 1.25 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.28 pending
Le Havre host Lorient at Oceane on 8 November in Ligue 1’s tenth round. The hosts sit last with 2 points; the visitors are 12th with 12 points. Le Havre are still seeking their first league victory.
Le Havre: home results deepen the pressure
Recent form and scoring pattern
Le Havre have lost four consecutive league games: against Lille, Auxerre, Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain. The 6:1 friendly win over Boulogne before that sequence should be kept separate from their league form. At home, their five league fixtures have produced one draw, four defeats and a combined score of 3:11.
Attacking returns versus defensive exposure
- They have scored 9 league goals, more than Lorient, but conceded 20 in nine matches.
- BTTS has occurred in six of nine fixtures: scoring has rarely been accompanied by defensive control.
- Five league games have featured Over 2.5 goals, with only one clean sheet.
Personnel and available contributors
Felix Mambimbi is out with an Achilles injury; Abdoulaye Toure and Ismael Bouneb are also unavailable through injury. Josh Maja leads the listed scorers with 2 goals in four appearances, while Rayan Fofana has a goal and an assist.
- Paris Saint-Germainhome1:5
- Olympique de Marseilleaway3:4
- Auxerrehome1:3
- Lille OSCaway0:1
- Boulognehome6:1
Lorient: defensive strength, limited output
A quieter run of matches
Lorient’s last five league results comprise a defeat at Le Mans, consecutive 1:0 wins over Paris and Monaco, a goalless draw at Angers and a 0:2 loss to Brest. Across four away league matches, they have one win, two draws and one defeat, with just 2 goals scored and 2 allowed.
Where the balance lies
- Five clean sheets in nine league matches are their clearest strength, although the sample remains small.
- Seven goals scored, averaging 0.78 per match, limit their ability to recover when behind.
- Only three fixtures have produced BTTS, and three have passed the 2.5-goal threshold.
One confirmed injury absence
Bandiougou Fadiga will miss the match with a hamstring injury. Gabin Bernardeau has one goal in four listed appearances, while Jean-Victor Makengo has one assist over the same number.
- Stade Brestois 29home0:2
- Angers SCOaway0:0
- AS Monacohome1:0
- Parishome1:0
- Le Mansaway1:2
Recent meetings favour the hosts
Le Havre are unbeaten in four official meetings over the past five years, with two wins and two draws. The latest encounter ended in a 2:0 away win for Le Havre in May 2026. That record contrasts with the clubs’ current league positions rather than explaining it away.
- 17.05.2026Lorient0:2Le HavreFrance. Ligue 1
- 21.09.2025Le Havre1:1LorientFrance. Ligue 1
- 27.07.2024Le Havre0:1LorientClub Friendlies
- 28.01.2024Lorient3:3Le HavreFrance. Ligue 1
- 03.09.2023Le Havre3:0LorientFrance. Ligue 1
Match-day context beyond the squads
No additional match-specific news or expert opinions are available. The forecast is dry at 12°C, with wind of 0.8 m/s and gusts up to 2.4 m/s, so the expected conditions offer little reason to anticipate weather-related disruption.
Line-ups
Le Havre
Starting XI: 5. Ahmed Touba, 6. Danny Mwanga, 9. Josh Maja, 16. Arno Bodart, 17. Мизута, 20. Djibril Ouziad, 23. Vincent Sasso, 25. Mbwana Samata, 26. Simon Ebonog, 27. Enzo Koffi Vinette, 38. Fofana
Substitutes: 7. Richardson, 21. Bodmer, 24. Guy Noel Zohouri, 33. Hakim Dongopandji, 34. Russo, 44. Ismail Bouneb, 78. Daren Mosengo, 93. Gauthier Gallon, 97. Lamine N'diaye
Coach: Jair Karam
Lorient
Starting XI: 3. Montassar Talbi, 8. Noah Cadiou, 15. Tosin Aiyegun, 17. Jean-Victor Makengo, 20. Sylla, 32. Nathaniel Adjei, 33. Gabin Bernardeau, 38. Yvon Mvogo, 43. Arsene Kouassi, 62. Arthur Avom Ebong, 95. Isaak Toure
Substitutes: 2. Alec Georgen, 10. Jensen, 11. Le Bris, 19. Souleymane Faye, 21. Bingourou Kamara, 30. Kuzmic, 42. Mamadou Kone, 55. Nosa Edward Obaretin, 72. Mbamba
Coach: Alexandre Dujeux
Our prediction
Le Havre host Lorient with the home side bottom of Ligue 1 after nine rounds and already 20 goals conceded. The defensive trend is especially relevant for this market: Le Havre have allowed 2.22 goals per league match, lost four in a row, and conceded in each of their last five games in all competitions. At Oceane, their league record is 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 11 goals conceded in those five fixtures.
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) 1.3. Lorient’s attacking numbers are modest, but the visitors face a defence that has conceded in every recent match and 11 times at home this season. Lorient have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches and remain unbeaten in 3 of 4 away league games, while Félix Mambimbi, Abdoulaye Touré and Ismaël Bouneb are unavailable for Le Havre due to injuries. Bandiougou Fadiga is unavailable for Lorient.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) 1.3 is the selection. Lorient need only one goal against a Le Havre side conceding regularly and carrying a 2.22-goal defensive average.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Paris Saint-Germainhome1:5
- Olympique de Marseilleaway3:4
- Auxerrehome1:3
- Lille OSCaway0:1
- Boulognehome6:1
- Stade Brestois 29home0:2
- Angers SCOaway0:0
- AS Monacohome1:0
- Parishome1:0
- Le Mansaway1:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 | Lorient | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13:24 | 10 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 | Troyes AC | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7:17 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Head-to-head
- 17.05.2026Lorient0:2Le HavreFrance. Ligue 1
- 21.09.2025Le Havre1:1LorientFrance. Ligue 1
- 27.07.2024Le Havre0:1LorientClub Friendlies
- 28.01.2024Lorient3:3Le HavreFrance. Ligue 1
- 03.09.2023Le Havre3:0LorientFrance. Ligue 1
About the match
- 8 November · 11:15 New York
- Venue: Oceane (Le Havre)
Odds
odds before kick-off
A narrow away lean in a balanced market
Lorient are marginal favourites in the 1X2 market: their margin-free probability is 37.3%, against 34.7% for Le Havre and 28% for the draw. The gap between the teams is small, despite their contrasting league positions. No notable movement has occurred over the past 24 hours.
Under 2.5 goals has a 52.5% market probability, while BTTS is priced as slightly more likely than not at 53.1%. Those assessments sit between Le Havre’s frequent high-concession games and Lorient’s lower-scoring fixtures. Both goal markets have also remained stable.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (0.5)
- Odds
- 1.3
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 73%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.3
- Potential win
- 30 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.3
- Status
- pending
