Villarreal — Getafe match prediction: La Liga analysis
Villarreal
GetafeMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.39 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.41 pending
Villarreal host Getafe at Ceramica in the twelfth round of La Liga. Both have 12 points from 11 matches and sit in the lower half, with a chance to move further clear of the relegation places. Villarreal enter after two consecutive defeats; Getafe have lost all five league away matches without scoring.
Villarreal: home advantage under pressure
Recent form and statistical profile
Villarreal’s last five matches brought two wins and three defeats. They won away at Valencia and CE Manacor, scoring five in the cup, before home defeats of 0:1 to Espanyol and 0:6 to Paris Saint-Germain. They scored in three of those five games and conceded in four.
Their league record is three wins, three draws and five defeats, with 15 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home, they have one win, one draw and three defeats, scoring six and conceding seven. Across all competitions, they have gone three home matches without a goal.
Villarreal’s league games have produced BTTS and Over 2.5 goals seven times each in eleven matches.
Strengths, weaknesses and available players
- Both teams have scored in seven of Villarreal’s eleven league matches.
- They have kept only one league clean sheet.
Alex Freeman and Georges Mikautadze have one league goal each; Alberto Moleiro has one assist. Ilias Akhomach, Gerard Moreno, Juan Foyth and Alassane Diatta are injured. Nathan Saliba has returned to full-team training, and Pape Gueye is available after suspension.
- Paris Saint-Germainhome0:6
- Espanyolhome0:1
- CE Manacoraway5:0
- Valenciaaway2:1
- Liverpoolaway3:4
Getafe: a severe split between home and away results
Recent matches and league position
Getafe have two wins and three defeats in their last five matches, beating UB Lebrijana and Sevilla while losing to Lugano, Athletic Bilbao and Brighton. They found the net in three games and conceded in all five.
They have the division’s second-worst attack, with 8 goals in 11 league matches, an average of 0.73 per game, and have conceded 16. Their away goal difference is 0:12. BTTS and Over 2.5 have each occurred in four of their eleven league games.
The 3:1 home win over Sevilla ended a three-match winless league run, but did not change their away record.
Squad situation and tactical balance
Martin Satriano leads Getafe’s league scoring with two goals and one assist. Enes Unal has one goal and one assist; Orel Mangala has one goal. Enes Unal and Eliot Mangala both scored on their recent return to the squad.
Dani Carvajal, Zaid Romero, Christantus Uche and Juanmi are injured; Ferdi Kadioglu and Pascal Struijk are doubtful. Mario Martin and Johan Mojica have returned.
- Brighton & Hove Albionhome0:1
- Sevillahome3:1
- UB Lebrijanaaway3:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:4
- Luganohome2:5
Head-to-head record favours the hosts
In nine official meetings over the last five years, Villarreal have four wins, four draws and one defeat.
Of the four draws in that eight-match sequence, all finished 0:0 or 1:1. Villarreal’s home wins were 2:1 and 2:0. Getafe’s only victory came at home in the latest meeting, 2:1.
- 14.02.2026Getafe2:1VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 06.12.2025Villarreal2:0GetafeSpain. La Liga
- 30.03.2025Getafe1:2VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 20.10.2024Villarreal1:1GetafeSpain. La Liga
- 16.02.2024Villarreal1:1GetafeSpain. La Liga
Team news, motivation and current mood
Villarreal coach Inigo Perez described Getafe as a very difficult opponent and called the match key. He acknowledged that the Paris Saint-Germain defeat had reduced the team’s enthusiasm. With the club seeking a response at home, he stressed adaptation and improvement rather than an immediate transformation.
Getafe arrive after a narrow defeat to Brighton. Unal and Mangala add experience, while the absences of Uche and Juanmi reduce attacking depth.
Line-ups
Villarreal
Starting XI: 2. Logan Costa, 9. Georges Mikautadze, 10. Alberto Moleiro, 12. Renato Veiga, 15. Santiago Mourino, 16. Carlos Macia Coves, 17. Tajon Buchanan, 18. Papa Gueye, 20. Carlos Romero, 21. Tani Oluwaseyi, 25. Peter Gulacsi
Substitutes: 1. Luiz Lucio Reis Junior, 3. Alex Freeman, 6. Pau Navarro, 13. Ruben Gomez, 14. Santi Comesana, 19. Nicolas Pepe, 22. Ayoze Perez, 23. Sergi Cardona Bermudez, 24. Nathan-Dylan Saliba, 27. Nizar El Jmili
Coach: Inigo Perez
Getafe
Starting XI: 2. Djene Dakonam, 6. Mario Martin Rielves, 8. Nemanja Gudelj, 10. Martin Satriano, 13. David Soria, 14. Dani Carvajal, 15. Juan Sebastian Boselli Graf, 19. Enes Unal, 21. Andres Garcia Robledo, 22. Johan Mojica, 23. Orel Mangala
Substitutes: 1. Jiri Letacek, 3. Davinchi, 4. Saba Sazonov, 5. Abdel Abqar, 11. Ramon Terrats, 16. Francho Serrano Gracia, 17. Francisco Femenia, 20. Ivan Azon Monzon, 26. Jean Ives Valou, 28. Alberto Risco, 35. Diego Ferrer Martinez, 36. Ibrahima Danfakha Keita
Coach: Jose Bordalas
Our forecast
Our bet is W1 1.5. Villarreal need a response at home after their 0:6 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, and the coach has called this match key. In the last five years, Villarreal have won four, drawn four and lost one of nine official meetings with Getafe. The last three meetings at Villarreal ended in two 1:1 draws and one 2:0 home win.
Getafe have lost all five league matches away from home, scoring 0 and conceding 12. Their attack has produced 8 goals in 11 league games, the second-lowest total in the division. Villarreal’s home record is 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, but they have scored 15 league goals and recently won away at Valencia and CE Manacor. Getafe will be without Daniel Carvajal, Zaïd Romero, Christantus Uche and Juanmi; Ferdi Kadioglu and Pascal Struijk remain doubtful. Villarreal will miss Gerard Moreno, Ilias Akhomach, Juan Foyth and Alassane Diatta, while Pape Gueye is available again. Expected score: 2:0 to Villarreal.
Conclusion
W1 1.5 is the recommended outcome, based on Villarreal’s head-to-head record and Getafe’s five away defeats without a goal.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Paris Saint-Germainhome0:6
- Espanyolhome0:1
- CE Manacoraway5:0
- Valenciaaway2:1
- Liverpoolaway3:4
- Brighton & Hove Albionhome0:1
- Sevillahome3:1
- UB Lebrijanaaway3:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:4
- Luganohome2:5
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Deportivo Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 12 | Celta | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 15 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:23 | 12 |
Head-to-head
- 14.02.2026Getafe2:1VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 06.12.2025Villarreal2:0GetafeSpain. La Liga
- 30.03.2025Getafe1:2VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 20.10.2024Villarreal1:1GetafeSpain. La Liga
- 16.02.2024Villarreal1:1GetafeSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 8 November · 12:30 New York
- Venue: Ceramica (Villarreal), Vilʹyarrealʹ
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and expected match script
Villarreal are the clear 1X2 favourites, with a home-win probability of 65.6%, against 21.1% for the draw and 13.3% for an away win. The line has shown no notable movement over the last 24 hours.
Over 2.5 is assessed at 52.8% and Under 2.5 at 47.2%. BTTS No has a narrow market edge at 52.3%, against 47.7% for BTTS Yes: Getafe’s away scoring record offsets Villarreal’s higher-scoring league pattern.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.57
- Odds at prediction
- 1.5
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 66%
- Market estimate
- 62%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.57
- Potential win
- 57 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.55
- Status
- pending
