Ascoli Calcio 1898 — Citta di Palermo Prediction in Serie B
Ascoli Calcio 1898
Citta di PalermoMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.27 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5) 1.33 pending
Ascoli host Serie B leaders Palermo at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca on November 6 in round 11. The hosts sit third, seven points behind their visitors: victory would narrow that gap, while Palermo are defending a six-point advantage over second-placed Modena.
Ascoli: defensive control under pressure
Recent results and home advantage
Ascoli’s last five matches produced two wins, three draws and a 9–2 aggregate score. The 6–1 victory at Catanzaro accounts for most of that attacking output; goalless away draws against Sudtirol and Arezzo show a less productive side. Their latest home results were 1–1 against Empoli and 2–0 against Sampdoria. Across all competitions, their unbeaten home run has reached 19 matches.
Where the hosts are strongest
- Five league home games have brought three wins, two draws and an 8–3 goal balance.
- Conceding 0.6 goals per league match makes defensive organisation their clearest strength.
- Four clean sheets in ten league fixtures underline their ability to keep opponents out.
- Only three of ten league games exceeded 2.5 goals; BTTS occurred in five.
Selection and attacking options
Defenders Manuel Alagna and Abdoul Guiebre are injured and unavailable. Samuele Damiani faces a late assessment for muscular fatigue. Matteo Brunori could start against his parent club, with the Ascoli president seeking more goals from him. Gabriele Gori has two goals and one assist in three appearances; Andrea Silipo has a goal and an assist in five. The defensive absences reduce Francesco Tomei’s options against the division’s leading attack.
- A.S.D. Atletico Arezzoaway0:0
- Sampdoriahome2:0
- Catanzaro 1929away6:1
- Empolihome1:1
- Sudtirolaway0:0
Palermo: scoring power with defensive exposure
A productive unbeaten sequence
Palermo have won four of their last five, drawing the other, with 14 goals scored and seven conceded. Away victories at Empoli and Mantova were followed by a home win over Carrarese, a 3–3 draw at Pisa and a 3–1 defeat of Vicenza. Their league record stands at eight wins and two draws, with 24 goals scored: their lead rests on sustained attacking production rather than frequent shutouts.
The visitors’ contrasting numbers
- Five away fixtures have yielded three wins, two draws and 13 goals.
- Eight goals conceded on those trips expose more space than Ascoli usually allow at home.
- BTTS has occurred in eight of ten league matches, with only two clean sheets.
- Seven of ten league fixtures have finished Over 2.5 goals.
Workload and key contributors
Dennis Johnsen and Dominic Vavassori each have four goals and one assist in five appearances. Fitness reports describe Tommaso Augello as tired after the previous match and Joel Pohjanpalo as exhausted, alongside a decline in his scoring. Those concerns put the visitors’ ability to sustain their attacking intensity under scrutiny.
- Vicenza Calciohome3:1
- Pisaaway3:3
- Carrarese Calciohome2:1
- Mantovaaway2:0
- Empoliaway4:2
Head-to-head
- 04.05.2019Ascoli Calcio 18981:2Citta di PalermoItaly. Serie B
- 30.09.2018Ascoli Calcio 18980:0Ascoli Calcio 1898Italy. Serie B
- 27.02.2018Citta di Palermo4:1Ascoli Calcio 1898Italy. Serie B
- 30.09.2017Ascoli Calcio 18980:0Citta di PalermoItaly. Serie B
- 13.05.2007Ascoli Calcio 18983:2Citta di PalermoItaly. Serie A
Preparation and coaching priorities
Tomei has stressed composure, the right mindset and Ascoli’s playing identity before facing the leaders. Palermo coach Filippo Inzaghi missed Wednesday’s training with tonsillitis, leaving assistant D’Angelo to lead the session.
Our Forecast
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.32. Palermo lead Serie B with 24 goals in 10 matches, averaging 2.4 per game, while their away record is even stronger: 13 goals in five fixtures, or 2.6 per match. They have scored in all five recent games, producing 14 goals, and exceeded one goal in all five of those matches. Johnsen and Vavassori have four league goals each, giving the visitors several reliable finishing options.
Ascoli’s defence has allowed only six goals in the tournament, but two starting-calibre defenders, Manuel Alagna and Abdul Giebre, are confirmed absentees, according to media reports. That weakens the unit against an attack that has scored three or more in three of its last five matches. Palermo’s defensive fatigue after a third game in nine days is a factor, yet it is less relevant to a market requiring the visitors to score at least twice. The expected score is 1:2.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (1) is supported by Palermo’s 2.6-goal away average, five-match scoring run and Ascoli’s defensive absences. Two Palermo goals are the most justified target for this matchup.
FAQ
When does Ascoli Calcio 1898 — Citta di Palermo kick off?
The match starts on 06.11.2026 at 14:30 (New York), Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca (Ascoli Piceno).
What is the prediction for Ascoli Calcio 1898 — Citta di Palermo?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.32.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Ascoli Calcio 1898 win — 33%, draw — 28%, Citta di Palermo win — 39%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- A.S.D. Atletico Arezzoaway0:0
- Sampdoriahome2:0
- Catanzaro 1929away6:1
- Empolihome1:1
- Sudtirolaway0:0
- Vicenza Calciohome3:1
- Pisaaway3:3
- Carrarese Calciohome2:1
- Mantovaaway2:0
- Empoliaway4:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citta di Palermo | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 24:12 | 26 |
| 2 | Modena | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | 20 |
| 3 | Ascoli Calcio 1898 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16:6 | 19 |
| 4 | Mantova | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15:11 | 18 |
Head-to-head
- 04.05.2019Ascoli Calcio 18981:2Citta di PalermoItaly. Serie B
- 30.09.2018Ascoli Calcio 18980:0Ascoli Calcio 1898Italy. Serie B
- 27.02.2018Citta di Palermo4:1Ascoli Calcio 1898Italy. Serie B
- 30.09.2017Ascoli Calcio 18980:0Citta di PalermoItaly. Serie B
- 13.05.2007Ascoli Calcio 18983:2Citta di PalermoItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 6 November · 14:30 New York
- Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca (Ascoli Piceno)
- Weather: 11° · precip. 18% · wind 0.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 09:10
Market confidence meets contrasting goal trends
Palermo are the 1X2 favourites with a margin-free market probability of 42.9%, against 29.8% for Ascoli and 27.3% for the draw. That is a qualified advantage rather than majority confidence in an away win. No notable movement has occurred over the past 24 hours.
The goals markets lean towards Over 2.5 at 58.8% and BTTS at 62.6%. Palermo’s scoring frequency supports that assessment, but Ascoli’s low concession rate and less open league matches provide a substantial counterweight. The central tactical question is whether the visitors can stretch the home defence without exposing the spaces already evident on their travels.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.32
- Odds at prediction
- 1.28
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 75%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.32
- Potential win
- 32 $
- Status
- pending