Uzbekistan — Russia prediction: Friendlies. National Teams
Uzbekistan
RussiaMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (3.5) 1.3 pending
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.46 pending
Uzbekistan host Russia at Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium in Tashkent in a national-team friendly. The match has no effect on the listed Group 3 standings, where Uzbekistan lead after two matches. The stakes are competitive level, squad assessment and preparation. Cool conditions of +5°C, no rain and light wind should not materially disrupt the technical game.
Uzbekistan: home response after an uneven autumn
Uzbekistan have won two of their last five matches and lost three, scoring eight. Their home form is much stronger than their away record: victories over Iran and Syria produced seven goals, while the three away fixtures in the sequence brought three defeats. The latest match was a 0:2 loss to South Korea, and Uzbekistan have conceded in all five games.
Strengths, weaknesses and available personnel
- Home attacking output is high: seven goals in two recent matches.
- The team scored in three of the last five fixtures, but failed to score in both latest away games.
- Defensive reliability is the main issue: eleven goals conceded across the five-match run.
- Abdukodir Khusanov is unavailable while recovering from injury, according to media reports.
Eldor Shomurodov missed the first days of camp for family reasons but joined the squad on 10 November and is ready. His presence restores a central attacking reference before a match against a side that has kept four clean sheets in its last five games. A confirmed starting lineup and tactical shape are not provided; no Uzbekistan suspensions are listed.
- South Koreaaway0:2
- Syriahome4:1
- Iranhome3:1
- DR Congoaway1:3
- Portugalaway0:5
Russia: stronger recent results, thinner defensive depth
Russia are unbeaten in their last five matches: four wins and one draw, with seventeen goals scored and three conceded. The sequence contains four home clean sheets against Burkina Faso, Trinidad and Tobago, Iran and Namibia. The latest 3:3 draw with Nigeria broke that defensive pattern, but Russia still scored in every match.
Attacking options and absences
- Lechii Sadulaev leads the listed tournament scorers with two goals in two matches.
- Kislyak has one goal and one assist in one appearance.
- Danil Prutsev has one goal in one match.
- Alexander Golovin and Maxim Osipenko will miss the game through injury, according to media reports.
Golovin’s absence removes a major creative option in midfield, while Osipenko’s departure reduces defensive alternatives. Russia’s likely starting eleven, formation and suspensions are not listed. Coach Valery Karpin has described Uzbekistan as a team that has improved since the previous meeting and may now be stronger than Slovakia; defender Viktor Melekhin expects a competitive fixture.
- Nigeriahome3:3
- Namibiahome6:0
- Iranhome2:0
- Trinidad and Tobagohome3:0
- Burkina Fasohome3:0
Previous meeting and comparative level
The teams have met once in the record: Uzbekistan and Russia drew 0:0 in Tashkent on 20 November 2022. That result offers little attacking evidence, but home advantage was already part of the context. Since then, the current form lines have separated: Uzbekistan have conceded in five straight matches, while Russia have scored in five consecutive fixtures.
Uzbekistan occupy first place in the listed Group 3 table with five points from two matches, four goals scored and one conceded. Russia are not listed in that table. Recent results and defensive records favour Russia, while Uzbekistan retain the benefit of playing in Tashkent.
- 20.11.2022Uzbekistan0:0RussiaFriendlies
Team news, motivation and public assessment
The central squad news is the availability of Shomurodov for Uzbekistan and the absence of Khusanov. Russia travel without Golovin and Osipenko, both ruled out by injury. No other injuries, suspensions or confirmed lineups are listed, so rotation beyond these names should not be assumed.
Motivation is framed around the quality of the opponent rather than standings pressure. Uzbek expert Jamol Akaev described the hosts as one of the leaders of Asian football and pointed to their progress. Former Uzbekistan coach Valery Nepomnyashchiy called the hosts the favourite for the friendly, while the Russian camp has stressed the value of facing a World Cup participant. Those views contrast with Russia’s more convincing recent results.
Our Pick
Uzbekistan host Russia in Tashkent in a friendly with no effect on the Group 3 standings, so the wager is focused on the visitors’ attacking output rather than the result. Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.45. Russia have scored at least two goals in each of their last five matches: 3, 3, 2, 6 and 3. That sequence produced 17 goals, including four victories with clean sheets.
Uzbekistan have conceded in five consecutive games. The home side can create chances—seven goals against Iran and Syria—but the absence of Abdukodir Khusanov weakens the defensive unit. Eldor Shomurodov has returned to the squad, while Russia will be without Aleksandr Golovin and Maksim Osipenko; those absences reduce the visitors’ depth but do not erase their current scoring trend. Russia’s three-goal draw with Nigeria also shows that their attacking level remains high even when the defence is tested. The projected score is 1:2.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.45 is supported by Russia’s minimum of two goals in five straight matches and Uzbekistan’s five-game conceding streak. The expected 1:2 scoreline clears the required team total.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- South Koreaaway0:2
- Syriahome4:1
- Iranhome3:1
- DR Congoaway1:3
- Portugalaway0:5
- Nigeriahome3:3
- Namibiahome6:0
- Iranhome2:0
- Trinidad and Tobagohome3:0
- Burkina Fasohome3:0
Standings · Group 3
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uzbekistan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 5 |
| 2 | Venezuela | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gabon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 4 | Trinidad and Tobago | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | 1 |
Head-to-head
- 20.11.2022Uzbekistan0:0RussiaFriendlies
About the match
- 12 November · 10:00 New York
- Venue: Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium (Tashkent)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view without a settled line move
The market makes Russia the favourite, assigning 48.9% to an away win, compared with 27.6% for a draw and 23.6% for a home win. Its confidence is moderate rather than overwhelming: the three-way probabilities leave meaningful space for both a draw and a home result. All listed 1X2 positions are unchanged over the last 24 hours.
The goals market leans toward Under 2.5 at 56.5%, while Over 2.5 stands at 43.5%. BTTS — No is marginally preferred at 52%, against 48% for Yes. That balance reflects Russia’s four clean sheets in five matches, but Uzbekistan’s two recent home wins produced seven goals, and their defence has conceded in every game of the recent sequence. The market therefore sees Russia as stronger while keeping the expected scoring level relatively controlled.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.38
- Odds at prediction
- 1.45
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 64%
- Market estimate
- 70%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.38
- Potential win
- 38 $
- Status
- pending