Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk: Belarus Premier League Match Prediction
Gomel
Arsenal DzerzhinskMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.47 lost
- Yellow cards: Total Under (3.5) 1.35 pending
Match result
Gomel 2:0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk (2:0, 0:0)
In the Belarus Premier League, Gomel secured a 2:0 home victory against Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. The home team built their winning advantage early, scoring two goals in the first half (2:0), while the second half remained goalless (0:0). With two goals scored by Gomel, our prediction for Individual Total 1 Over (1) won.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.26 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.47 — the bet lost.
Gomel host Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at Central Stadium on November 6 in round 28 of the Belarus Premier League. The hosts are seventh with 40 points; the visitors are 12th with 27. Gomel's European qualification hopes are over, while Arsenal are fighting to stay in the division.
Gomel: scoring regularly, conceding heavily
Recent results and home form
Gomel's last five league games brought one win, one draw and three defeats. Recent results include 1:5 against ML Vitebsk, 2:2 at Dinamo Brest, 1:2 against Dinamo Minsk and 1:2 at Dnepr Mogilev. At home this season, their record is six wins, two draws and five defeats, with 22 scored and 16 conceded.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Season scoring average: 1.41 goals per game, compared with 0.93 for Arsenal.
- Ten clean sheets in 27 rounds show a stronger defensive baseline than recent results suggest.
- BTTS occurred in 14 league games; only 11 went Over 2.5 goals.
Selection and individual incentives
Igor Zayats returns from suspension. Tsimafei Simanenka's pursuit of the scoring title supplies an individual incentive after the end of the top-four chase. The supplied player totals cover only four appearances for him and cannot establish his full-season tally.
- Dnepr Mogilevaway1:2
- Dinamo Minskhome1:2
- Dinamo Brestaway2:2
- ML Vitebskhome1:5
- Belshina Bobruiskhome1:0
Arsenal: tighter defence, limited attacking output
A narrow win changes the recent picture
Arsenal followed defeats to Dinamo Brest and Dinamo Minsk with a goalless draw against Dnepr and a 1:0 win over BATE, their first victory of the second half of the season. Their away record is three wins, five draws and five defeats, with a 13:24 goal balance.
Where the visitors remain vulnerable
- Twenty-five goals in 27 rounds leave little attacking margin when they fall behind.
- Forty-four goals conceded over 27 rounds.
- Seven league clean sheets; 11 games finished Over 2.5 goals.
Defensive absence and fitness concern
Centre-back Andrey Zaleski is suspended for accumulated yellow cards. Midfielder Nikolay Sotnikov is doubtful after a head wound suffered against Dnepr, the only reported medical concern. The recent return to their renovated stadium has helped morale, although this fixture takes Arsenal away from that setting.
- BATE Borisovhome1:0
- Dnepr Mogilevhome0:0
- Dinamo Minskaway0:2
- Dinamo Bresthome0:1
- Minskaway0:0
Recent meetings differ from the older scorelines
Gomel lead the seven official meetings over five years by three wins to two, with two draws and a combined goal balance of 12:6. Their early home victories included 4:1 and 5:0, but they are winless in the latest four encounters. Those four produced just five goals altogether; June's reverse fixture ended 1:1. The historical scoring average therefore masks a much quieter recent sequence.
- 26.06.2026Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1:1GomelBelarus. Premier League
- 28.02.2026Gomel4:0Arsenal DzerzhinskClub Friendlies
- 02.11.2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0:0GomelBelarus. Premier League
- 13.06.2025Gomel0:2Arsenal DzerzhinskBelarus. Premier League
- 30.11.2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1:0GomelBelarus. Premier League
Registration restrictions affect both clubs
The ABFF has indefinitely barred both clubs from registering new players because of overdue registration fees. This restricts recruitment rather than establishing any additional absence for this match. No specific expert assessment is supplied.
Line-ups
Gomel
Starting XI: 7. Raymond Olamilekan Adeola, 11. Tsimafei Simanenka, 16. Igor Zayats, 17. Vadim Martinkevich, 19. Daniil Silinsky, 23. Kirill Danilin, 33. Viktor Sotnikov, 43. Damir Shaikhtdinov, 44. Stanislav Kleschuk, 77. Vladislav Lazarev, 90. Georgiy Kukushkin
Substitutes: 3. Sergey Matvejchik, 4. Alyaksey Gavrilovich, 8. Yawhen Barsukow, 9. Kirill Leonovich, 13. Maksim Mardas, 14. Pavel Pashevich, 21. Denis Kovalevich, 22. Dmitri Emeljanov, 49. Artem Karatai, 66. Roman Shapovalov
Coach: Andrey Gorovtsov
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Starting XI: 4. Eduard Akunets, 11. Dzambolat Tsallagov, 13. Ivan Oreshkevich, 23. Denis Polyakov, 30. Artem Soroko, 33. Valeri Gorbachik, 41. Dmitry Lutik, 46. Vladislav Vassiljev, 71. Maksim Matveev, 77. Nikolay Sotnikov, 90. Dmitry Antilevski
Substitutes: 1. Ivan Sanko, 9. Ilya Vasin, 10. Sergey Sazonchik, 16. Artem Vashchenko, 19. Alexander Veretennikov, 26. Vadim Tkachenko, 79. Khetag Badoev
Coach: Igor Voronkov
Our Pick
Gomel host Arsenal Dzerzhinsk in Tour 28 with a clear attacking case for the home side. Gomel have scored in all five of their latest matches, and average 1.41 goals per league game this season. At Central Stadium, their 13 league matches have produced 22 goals.
Arsenal’s defensive profile is the key matchup factor: the visitors have conceded 44 goals in 27 rounds, including 24 in 13 away fixtures. Their main centre-back Andrei Zalesky will miss the match through suspension, while Nikolai Sotnikov remains a doubt after a head injury, according to media reports. Gomel also have Igor Zayats back after suspension, and Timofei Simanenka’s pursuit of the scoring title adds a clear individual incentive. The visitors are fighting for survival, but they have scored in only one of their last five matches. Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.26. A likely score is 2:0.
Conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.26 is supported by Gomel’s five-match scoring run, their 1.41-goal season average and Arsenal’s 44 goals conceded. The absence of Zalesky further weakens the visitors’ central defence.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Dnepr Mogilevaway1:2
- Dinamo Minskhome1:2
- Dinamo Brestaway2:2
- ML Vitebskhome1:5
- Belshina Bobruiskhome1:0
- BATE Borisovhome1:0
- Dnepr Mogilevhome0:0
- Dinamo Minskaway0:2
- Dinamo Bresthome0:1
- Minskaway0:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Vitebsk | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 30:26 | 40 |
| 7 | Gomel | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 38:29 | 40 |
| 8 | Torpedo-BelAZ | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:35 | 36 |
| 9 | Minsk | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 33:40 | 34 |
| 10 | Slavia-Mozyr | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34:38 | 31 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 30:43 | 31 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 25:44 | 27 |
| 13 | Belshina Bobruisk | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28:50 | 24 |
Head-to-head
- 26.06.2026Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1:1GomelBelarus. Premier League
- 28.02.2026Gomel4:0Arsenal DzerzhinskClub Friendlies
- 02.11.2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0:0GomelBelarus. Premier League
- 13.06.2025Gomel0:2Arsenal DzerzhinskBelarus. Premier League
- 30.11.2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1:0GomelBelarus. Premier League
About the match
- 6 November · 10:00 New York
- Venue: Central Stadium (Gomel), Gomelʹ
Odds
odds before kick-off
Home favouritism meets a cautious goals market
The margin-free 1X2 assessment makes Gomel favourites at 57.7%, with the draw at 26.1% and Arsenal at 16.2%. That line has shown no meaningful movement over 24 hours: the hosts retain a clear market advantage despite their recent defensive problems.
Under 2.5 goals has a 55% market probability, against 45% for Over, with both stable. BTTS Yes is attracting support, although its assessed probability remains 45.2%, below No at 54.8%. The movement concerns both sides scoring rather than a broader shift towards a high total.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.25
- Odds at prediction
- 1.26
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Market estimate
- 77%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.25
- Potential win
- 25 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.2
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +25 $