For example, if a bookmaker offers odds of 2.00 on a football team winning a match, those odds imply that the team’s chances of winning are (1\/2.00) = 50%. However, if the bettor believes the team has a (greater) 60% chance of winning, then they would view this as a value betting opportunity and place a bet on the team to win.<\/p>\n
Value betting is a fundamental strategy for successful betting, as it allows bettors to generate profits over time by consistently finding opportunities where the odds are in their favour.<\/p>\n
Value betting applies to sports betting, poker, and other forms of gambling. In each case the goal is to produce a positive expected value (EV), or player “edge”, over time. In doing so, profit<\/strong> is also expected.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n EV stands for ‘expected value’. Expected value is a mathematical concept used to determine the average profit\/loss of a bet (or series of bets) by accounting for all possible outcomes and their probabilities.<\/p>\n Expected value (EV) is a key concept in value betting, as it helps bettors identify opportunities where betting odds are in their favour. For any bet you place, expected value can be summarised as follows:<\/p>\n In essence, a value bet is one where the expected value is positive or “plus EV”, meaning the bettor stands to gain more over the long run than they would lose.<\/p>\n Regularly betting on +EV bets would give the bettor an “edge” or “advantage”. Both terms mean the same thing.<\/p>\n Expected value (EV) is calculated by multiplying the real life probability of an outcome by the amount of the potential payout, and then subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount wagered, as follows:<\/p>\n Expected Value = <\/strong>(Decimal win probability x Profit per bet) \u2013 (Decimal loss probability x Loss per bet).<\/p>\n I’ll show you how to use this formula using examples.<\/p>\n If a bettor places a \u00a3100 bet on a team to win at odds of 3.0, and the bettor believes the team has a 50% chance of winning, the potential payout for the bet would be:<\/p>\n Expected Value<\/strong> = (0.5 x \u00a3200) – (0.5 x \u00a3100) = \u00a3100 – \u00a350 = \u00a350<\/strong><\/p>\n In this example, the expected value of the bet is \u00a350, which means that the bettor can expect to make a profit of \u00a350 for every \u00a3100 staked<\/strong> by placing bets of this type over the long run. Therefore the expected ROI is 50%.<\/p>\n If a bettor places a \u00a3100 bet on a team to win at odds of 2.0, and the bettor believes the team has a 50% chance of winning, the potential payout for the bet would be:<\/p>\n Expected Value<\/strong> = (0.5 x \u00a3100) – (0.5 x \u00a3100) = \u00a350 – \u00a350 = \u00a30<\/strong><\/p>\n In this example, the expected value of the bet is \u00a30, which means that the bettor can expect to break even <\/strong>by placing bets of this kind over the long run. Therefore the expected ROI is 0%.<\/p>\n For example, if a bettor places a \u00a3100 bet on a team to win at odds of 1.8, and the bettor believes the team has a 50% chance of winning, the potential payout for the bet would be:<\/p>\n Expected Value<\/strong> = (0.5 x \u00a380) – (0.5 x \u00a3100) = \u00a340 – \u00a350 = –\u00a310<\/strong><\/p>\n In this example, the expected value of the bet is -\u00a30, which means that the bettor can expect to lose \u00a310 for every \u00a3100 staked <\/strong>by placing bets of this kind over the long run. Therefore the expected ROI is -10%.<\/p>\n Without knowing the true win probability of an event occurring, bettors can’t determine what the fair odds should be or accurately assign an expected value (EV) to their bets.<\/p>\n Calculating the fair odds of a sports event is a huge challenge. Most bettors fail to consistently get it right.<\/strong><\/p>\n The Betfair exchange odds are considered the most reliable benchmark for determining a fair price, backed by mathematical evidence. Typically, the correct price for an outcome can be found between the Back and Lay odds of a well-formed market, such as the Match Odds for Premier League games. In general, the true price is closer to the Back price than the Lay price, although this may vary depending on the specific market and circumstances. By comparing their own odds to the Betfair exchange odds, bettors can gain a better understanding of the value in their bets and potentially find profitable opportunities.<\/p>\n Why betting exchange odds are generally correct.<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n To estimate your potential sports betting profitability and determine the expected value of your betting strategy, it is essential to build a large dataset of past betting results<\/a>. Provided you have this, you can begin to make assertions about your performance.<\/p>\n For example, let’s say your betting strategy has consistently generated a return on investment (ROI) of +5% over a large sample of bets. If you were to place more bets totalling \u00a3100,000 in the future, you can predict that you will earn 5% x \u00a3100,000 = \u00a35,000 based on your historical performance.<\/p>\n Similarly, if your average ROI is -5%, you can expect to lose -5% x \u00a3100,000 = -\u00a35,000 on every \u00a3100,000 staked going forward.<\/p>\n It’s important to note that bet sizes do not impact this calculation but can affect the variance in results<\/a>. In other words the expected profit\/loss is the same whether you place 1 bet of \u00a3100,000, or 50,000 bets of \u00a32. However, the former is a lot<\/em> more risky. Hence, an important aspect to consider when estimating your expected value and profitability is bankroll management<\/a>.<\/p>\n Even if you have a winning betting strategy, poor bankroll management can quickly wipe out your profits. A common approach to bankroll management is to use a percentage of your overall bankroll for each bet. For example, if you have a bankroll of \u00a310,000 and use a 2% unit size, your stake size for each bet would be \u00a3200. This helps to protect your bankroll and prevent large losses from bad variance.<\/p>\n Bettors may also consider the concept of Kelly Criterion, which is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal bet size based on the perceived value and probability of the bet. The Kelly Criterion takes into account the size of your bankroll, the odds of the bet, and the perceived probability of the outcome.<\/p>\n Learn more about betting bankroll management.<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Value bets occur because bookmakers and betting markets do not always set odds that accurately reflect the true probability of an outcome. In other words, bookmakers or betting exchanges sometimes offer odds that are more, or less, favourable than the true probability of the outcome, creating opportunities for bettors to identify value bets.<\/p>\n There are several reasons why bookmakers may not be perfectly efficient at setting odds. For example:<\/p>\n Learn more on how bookmakers set their odds.<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Value bets, or “plus EV” bets, can be found at both bookmakers and betting exchanges.<\/p>\n It’s important to note that the vast majority of odds offered by bookmakers would produce a negative (minus EV) result, as the bookmaker specialises in maintaining an “edge” (advantage). In contrast, the average odds available on a betting exchange are typically more accurate, resulting in a fair betting environment where the bettor is neither at an advantage nor a disadvantage on average.<\/p>\n See how I broke exactly even from over 270 random football bets on Betfair.<\/a><\/p>\n However, the caveat of offering a fair betting platform is that betting exchanges attract sharp and experienced professionals that compete for odds. This makes it a tough and highly competitive marketplace for punters to find plus EV bets. Hence the easiest way to find value bets is to pick off prices from “soft” bookmakers<\/a>, whenever they appear. However, bettors need to act fast as value odds normally disappear quickly.<\/p>\n These are the options for identifying value bets.<\/p>\n Value betting software uses algorithms and mathematical models to identify value betting opportunities in real-time. They can scan multiple bookmakers to find discrepancies in odds that suggest a value bet may be available. Importantly, value betting software saves time for bettors and drastically increases their chances of identifying profitable betting opportunities.<\/p>\n Truthfully, there aren’t too many value betting products that are (a) available to the public, and (b) provide genuine<\/strong> value.\u00a0However, I was granted free access to review the ValueBetting<\/a> product by RebelBetting<\/a>, and I was extremely impressed. The ValueBetting<\/a> product from RebelBetting monitors price movements across a vast array of bookmakers, identifies plus EV selections the moment they appear, and displays them in a live feed. This product essentially provides users with all the tools necessary to generate a consistent profit.<\/p>\nExpected Value (EV) Explained<\/h2>\n
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\nHow to Calculate EV<\/h3>\n
\nExample 1: +EV bet<\/h3>\n
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\nExample 2: 0 EV bet<\/h3>\n
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\nExample 3: -EV bet<\/h3>\n
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\nThe Importance of the True Win Probability<\/h3>\n
Analysing Your Performance<\/h2>\n
Why Do Value Bets Occur?<\/h2>\n
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How To Find Value Bets<\/h2>\n
\n1. Use Value Betting Software<\/a><\/h3>\n
\nOver a large sample, Rebelbetting produces a profit in line with expected value<\/h6>\n
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