{"id":3681,"date":"2016-11-11T14:53:40","date_gmt":"2016-11-11T14:53:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/punter2pro.com\/?page_id=3681"},"modified":"2024-07-23T09:43:06","modified_gmt":"2024-07-23T09:43:06","slug":"mug-bets","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/punter2pro.com\/mug-bets\/","title":{"rendered":"The Mug Betting Experiment"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"3681\" class=\"elementor elementor-3681\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-section-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-719e7cb e-flex e-con-boxed e-con\" data-id=\"719e7cb\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;boxed&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c4d6a85 elementor-icon-list--layout-traditional elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"c4d6a85\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/punter2pro.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/elementor\/assets\/css\/widget-icon-list.min.css\">\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-info-circle\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">The 'Mug Betting Experiment' mimicked how regular sports bettors bet on football. The 'Mug Bets' were based entirely on opinion, without any statistical analysis. The experiment was run for (almost) the entire 2016\/17 Premier League Football season, with all bets placed on the Betfair exchange. Remarkably, it broke completely even with a <strong>0.00%<\/strong> <b>ROI<\/b>. The end result serves as an example of what casual punters could expect to achieve over the mid-to-long-term. <a href=\"https:\/\/punter2pro.com\/mug-bets-earn-premier-league-fixture\/\"><b>See the full analysis.<\/b><\/a><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b85959a elementor-hidden-desktop elementor-hidden-tablet elementor-hidden-mobile e-flex e-con-boxed e-con\" data-id=\"b85959a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;boxed&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c6881a7 e-con-full e-flex e-con\" data-id=\"c6881a7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;full&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d6380f5 elementor-view-default elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon\" data-id=\"d6380f5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon\">\n\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-info-circle\"><\/i>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5045aa8 e-con-full e-flex e-con\" data-id=\"5045aa8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;full&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0050690 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0050690\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.15.0 - 20-08-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\tThe &#8216;Mug Betting Experiment&#8217; mimicked how regular sports bettors bet on football. The &#8216;Mug Bets&#8217; were based entirely on opinion, without any statistical analysis. The experiment was run for (almost) the entire 2016\/17 Premier League Football season, with all bets placed on the Betfair exchange. Remarkably, it broke completely even with a <strong>0.00%<\/strong> <b>ROI<\/b>. The end result serves as an example of what casual punters could expect to achieve over the mid-to-long-term. <a href=\"https:\/\/punter2pro.com\/mug-bets-earn-premier-league-fixture\/\">See the full analysis<\/a>.\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d1966d0 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con\" data-id=\"d1966d0\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;boxed&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cd86361 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"cd86361\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.15.0 - 20-08-2023 *\/\n.elementor-column .elementor-spacer-inner{height:var(--spacer-size)}.e-con{--container-widget-width:100%}.e-con-inner>.elementor-widget-spacer,.e-con>.elementor-widget-spacer{width:var(--container-widget-width,var(--spacer-size));--align-self:var(--container-widget-align-self,initial);--flex-shrink:0}.e-con-inner>.elementor-widget-spacer>.elementor-widget-container,.e-con-inner>.elementor-widget-spacer>.elementor-widget-container>.elementor-spacer,.e-con>.elementor-widget-spacer>.elementor-widget-container,.e-con>.elementor-widget-spacer>.elementor-widget-container>.elementor-spacer{height:100%}.e-con-inner>.elementor-widget-spacer>.elementor-widget-container>.elementor-spacer>.elementor-spacer-inner,.e-con>.elementor-widget-spacer>.elementor-widget-container>.elementor-spacer>.elementor-spacer-inner{height:var(--container-widget-height,var(--spacer-size))}<\/style>\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-27b5bfd e-flex e-con-boxed e-con\" data-id=\"27b5bfd\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;boxed&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0fc3a2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"0fc3a2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.15.0 - 20-08-2023 *\/\n.elementor-heading-title{padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title[class*=elementor-size-]>a{color:inherit;font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-small{font-size:15px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-medium{font-size:19px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-large{font-size:29px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xl{font-size:39px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xxl{font-size:59px}<\/style><h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Mug Betting final Results<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-91b32f6 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con\" data-id=\"91b32f6\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;boxed&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f714f29 e-con-full e-flex e-con\" data-id=\"f714f29\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;full&quot;,&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bb7df49 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"bb7df49\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Total bets: <\/strong>270<strong><br \/>ROI<\/strong>: +3.77%<br \/><strong>After commission ROI<\/strong>: +0.00%<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4eab99c7 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4eab99c7\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7f8208b5\" data-id=\"7f8208b5\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3df75f82 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3df75f82\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<p><div class=\"visualizer-front-container\" id=\"chart_wrapper_visualizer-3680-1951943838\"><style type=\"text\/css\" name=\"visualizer-custom-css\" id=\"customcss-visualizer-3680\">.locker,.locker-loader{position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%}.locker{z-index:1000;opacity:.8;background-color:#fff;-ms-filter:\"progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=80)\";filter:alpha(opacity=80)}.locker-loader{z-index:1001;background:url(https:\/\/punter2pro.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/visualizer\/images\/ajax-loader.gif) no-repeat center center}.dt-button{display:none!important}.visualizer-front-container.visualizer-lazy-render{content-visibility: auto;}.google-visualization-controls-categoryfilter label.google-visualization-controls-label {vertical-align: middle;}.google-visualization-controls-categoryfilter li.goog-inline-block {margin: 0 0.2em;}.google-visualization-controls-categoryfilter li {padding: 0 0.2em;}.visualizer-front-container .dataTables_scrollHeadInner{margin: 0 auto;}<\/style><div id=\"visualizer-3680-1951943838\" class=\"visualizer-front  visualizer-front-3680\"><\/div><!-- Not showing structured data for chart 3680 because title is empty --><\/div><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-98735c8 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con\" data-id=\"98735c8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;boxed&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e1c92d2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e1c92d2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>The Mug Betting experiment demonstrated that placing bets without a sound selection method is unlikely to yield positive results. Nonetheless, it underlined the importance of obtaining the best possible odds, found on the betting exchange, which achieved a break-even result. Check out the <a href=\"https:\/\/punter2pro.com\/mug-bets-earn-premier-league-fixture\/\">entire analysis of the Mug Betting results<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7757449 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con\" data-id=\"7757449\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;boxed&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7db9449 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7db9449\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Week-by-Week Updates<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ffc1b28 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con\" data-id=\"ffc1b28\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;boxed&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0312966 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0312966\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Here\u2019s the complete log of the weekly Mug Betting selections, detailing the progress of the experiment.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-320cf9e e-flex e-con-boxed e-con\" data-id=\"320cf9e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;content_width&quot;:&quot;boxed&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7cfefd9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7cfefd9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3>WEEK 27 SELECTIONS (15\/05\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Chelsea v Watford: <strong>HOME (1.28)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Arsenal v Sunderland: <strong>HOME (1.11) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>absolutely awful odds. I can&#8217;t really justifying betting on any other outcome though.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man City v West Brom: <strong>DRAW (10.0) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>City should win, but I still think West Brom will make it difficult for them. A draw is possible.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Southampton v Man United: <strong>DRAW (3.4)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Leicester v Spurs: <strong>AWAY (1.92)<\/strong> &#8212;\u00a0Spurs have held in the same position for 2 years and they&#8217;ll want to highlight this to the previous champions Leicester.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Arsenal v Everton: <strong>AWAY<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>(7.4) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>at these odds Everton still look attractive, despite what this game means to Arsenal.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Burnley v West Ham: <strong>HOME (2.36)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Chelsea v Sunderland: <strong>HOME (1.16) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>2 teams with nothing to play for. One is a lot better than the other.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Hull v Spurs: <strong>AWAY (1.72)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Leicester v Bournemouth: <strong>AWAY (4.4)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Liverpool v Middlesbrough: <strong>HOME (1.17)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v Crystal Palace: <strong>DRAW (3.7) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>United won&#8217;t get top 4, so Palace could enjoy a good point here.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Southampton v Stoke: <strong>AWAY (4.9)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Swansea v West Brom: <strong>DRAW (3.5)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Watford v Man City: <strong>AWAY (1.39)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a31.75 (-0.00% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a346.40 (+3.43% ROI)<\/p><pre>And that's a wrap! The Mug bets (just about) stayed in profit over a whopping <strong>270 equal-stake bets of \u00a35<\/strong>. The final week encapsulates the experiment: frequent wins, but still no overall payoff. The odds are sharp - and this experiment is testament to that. Thanks to everyone who followed.<\/pre><h3>WEEK 26 SELECTIONS (10\/05\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #333399;\">Southampton v Arsenal: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(2.22) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I think there&#8217;s a good chance that Arsenal will get top 4 (unfortunately). It&#8217;s vital they put pressure on Liverpool now.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v Watford: <strong>DRAW (4.8) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>didn&#8217;t see value in the home win here. Everton are far superior, but still liable to drop points.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #333399;\">West Brom v Chelsea: <strong>AWAY (1.4) &#8212;<\/strong> Chelsea will win the title here.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man City v Leicester: <strong>AWAY (12.0)<\/strong> &#8212; its an odd selection, but the odds are attractive. No pressure on Leicester, either.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Bournemouth v Burnley: <strong>AWAY (4.1) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>tight game, i think. Odds for Burnley look decent here.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Middlesbrough v Southampton: <strong>AWAY (2.08)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v Swansea: <strong>HOME (4.2) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>they&#8217;ve demonstrated the want to get started on next season. They might want to cause an upset here &#8212; if only for the loyal home crowd.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Stoke v Arsenal: <strong>DRAW (4.2) &#8212; <\/strong>damn,\u00a0i wanted to back Arsenal. The odds weren&#8217;t great so I&#8217;ve had to go for a draw here. But hey, maybe it&#8217;s about that time we hear from the WengerOut lot again?<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Crystal Palace v Hull: <strong>HOME (2.14)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Ham v Liverpool: <strong>DRAW (4.1) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I feel that Liverpool will make hard work of getting top 4. Or they&#8217;ll bottle it and let Arsenal in. Odds for the draw look ok here.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Spurs v Man United: <strong>HOME (1.75)<\/strong> &#8212; Last game at WHL, in a unbeaten run at the stadium. No pressure on Spurs. This one&#8217;s for the fans. COYS.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a37.05 (-12.82% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a348.15 (+3.77% ROI)<\/p><pre>255 bets placed now. Looks as if I'm going to hold on and keep this in profit by the end of the season. But hopefully this experiment inspires some of you <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>not<\/strong><\/span> to think you can beat the exchange by making unfounded selections. At the very least I've shown that you need not lose large sums of cash when gambling over a long period of time. Stay rigid.<\/pre><h3>Week 25 Selections (01\/05\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Watford\u00a0v Liverpool: <strong>DRAW\u00a0(4.5) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I&#8217;m not convinced there&#8217;s value\u00a0in Liverpool at 1.61. This is a selection where I don&#8217;t feel overly comfortable backing any of the outcomes at the prices available.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Ham v Spurs: <strong>AWAY (1.45) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>don&#8217;t realistically see any other outcome on this one.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Man City v Crystal Palace: <strong>HOME (1.27)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Bournemouth v Stoke: <strong>HOME (2.26)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v Hull: <strong>AWAY (1.5) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>wow, such poor odds. But I do think Sunderland are deflated. And will the players really up their game for Moyes and the fans? I doubt it.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Burnley v West Brom: <strong>HOME (2.28)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Leicester v Watford: <strong>HOME (1.61)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Swansea v Everton: <strong>AWAY (2.7)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Liverpool v Southampton: <strong>DRAW (4.3)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Arsenal v Man United: <strong>AWAY (3.8) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>massive game, and I feel that United might help put the nail in the coffin for Arsenal&#8217;s top 4 fight.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #333399;\">Chelsea v Middlesbrough: <strong>HOME (1.18) &#8212; <\/strong>unless\u00a0there&#8217;s a red card and a penalty I can&#8217;t see a scenario where Middlesbrough get any points!<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a313.20 (-24.00% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a355.20 (+4.52% ROI)<\/p><pre>Clinging on a bit now! But I don't feel hard done by this week. The odds felt tight this week. Nothing really jumped out at me.<\/pre><h3>Week 24 Selections (27\/04\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man City v Man United: <strong>AWAY (4.8) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>you can&#8217;t rely on City to win the games they&#8217;re expected to. I think\u00a0United at these odds isn&#8217;t a bad shout.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Brom v Leicester: <strong>DRAW (3.45)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Southampton v Hull: <strong>AWAY (5.9)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Stoke v West Ham: <strong>HOME (2.16) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I think West Ham will make it hard on themselves to ensure 100% safety.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #333399;\">Sunderland v Bournemouth: <strong>AWAY (2.4)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Crystal Palace v Burnley: <strong>HOME (1.83) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Palace didn&#8217;t play bad against Spurs. If they carry that performance over I think they&#8217;ll get at least a point.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #333399;\">Man United v Swansea: <strong>DRAW (4.9) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>with United&#8217;s injuries I&#8217;m not sure that backing the home win is value. Swansea could go there looking for a point.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #333399;\">Everton v Chelsea: <strong>AWAY (2.08) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>this game is a huge step to securing the title. They&#8217;ll surely win.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Middlesbrough v Man City: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(1.32) &#8212; <\/strong>this isn&#8217;t the most enticing bet, to be honest.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #333399;\">Spurs v Arsenal: <strong>HOME (1.89) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I&#8217;m trying not to let my heart rule my head. But Spurs are a better side, and have so much at stake. In the last derby at WHL Spurs are likely to come out winners.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a36.35 (+12.70% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a368.40 (+5.87% ROI)<\/p><pre>There were a lot of goalless draws this week, which didn't help. The odds feel and look (from the results) very tight\/accurate. It's easy to remain flat week-on-week. I'm not seeing any real advantage that my bets have. That said, what makes the challenge so difficult is that I'm not discarding any bets - and this was a week where I would've liked to skip several games. Still, a small profit is an OK result.<\/pre><h3>Week 23 Selections (22\/04\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Hull v Watford: <strong>AWAY (4.5)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Swansea v Stoke: <strong>HOME (2.26) &#8212; <\/strong>I think they&#8217;ll be more up for the match.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Bournemouth v Middlesbrough: <strong>HOME (1.9) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Middlesbrough look relegated to me.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Ham v Everton: <strong>AWAY (2.24) &#8212; <\/strong>these odds aren&#8217;t brilliant, but Everton are a much better side. I think they&#8217;ll win, fighting for the Europa spot.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Burnley v Man United: <strong>AWAY (1.6) &#8212; <\/strong>I don&#8217;t think these odds are bad at all. And this means a lot to United&#8217;s top 4 chances.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Liverpool v Crystal Palace: <strong>DRAW (4.8) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Liverpool drop a lot of points in games like this. And they&#8217;ve shaded wins they ought to have enough quality to coast. If they drew this game I wouldn&#8217;t be shocked.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Chelsea v Southampton: <strong>HOME (1.45) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>with everything to play for I don&#8217;t see Chelsea slipping.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Middlesbrough v Sunderland: <strong>DRAW (3.5)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Arsenal v Leicester: <strong>DRAW (4.5) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>the hype of the Semi Final win might not carry through in the Premier League.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Crystal Palace v Spurs: <strong>DRAW (4.3) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong> we&#8217;ve seen how well Palace have done under pressure. They shouldn&#8217;t beat Spurs &#8212; but I feel that Spurs are due\u00a0to drop points, especially after the disappointment in the semi final.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a313.95 (-27.9% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a362.05 (+5.57% ROI)<\/p><pre>Oh dear. I feel a bit hard done by that <em>once again<\/em> I've made a decent call (in this case Liverpool dropping points) but went for the wrong selection. Arsenal scored a ridiculously lucky goal to win 1-0, and that ought to have been a Draw. It's a fine line. I'm expecting a positive move before the end of the season - but is that just wishful thinking?<\/pre><h3>Week 22 Selections (15\/04\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Spurs v Bournemouth: <strong>HOME\u00a0(1.3)<\/strong> <strong>&#8212;<\/strong> I think Spurs will continue their home winning streak.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Crystal Palace v Leicester: <strong>HOME (1.84)<\/strong> <strong>&#8212;<\/strong> big game for Palace. I think they&#8217;ll pick up the 3 points.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v West Ham: <strong>AWAY<\/strong> <strong>(2.36)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Everton v Burnley: <strong>HOME (1.48)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Stoke v Hull: <strong>HOME (2.0)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Watford v Swansea: <strong>AWAY (3.5)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Man United v Chelsea: <strong>HOME (2.82) &#8212; <\/strong>I fancy United to do it. Chelsea aren&#8217;t invincible and Mourinho has a point to prove.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Southampton v Man City: <strong>AWAY (1.81) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I think these odds are decent considering City need to cement their top 4 place.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">West Brom v Liverpool: <strong>AWAY (1.92) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>good odds, I think.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Middlesbrough v Arsenal: <strong>AWAY (1.6) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>despite their recent form, Arsenal should still win this game.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a314.65 (29.60% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a376.00 (+7.13% ROI)<\/p><pre>A decent week - although picking so many winners wasn't that rewarding. The teams that were expected to win, generally did.<\/pre><h3>Week 21 Selections (08\/04\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Spurs v Watford: <strong>DRAW (6.2) &#8212;<\/strong> I think Spurs are due a draw. Again, can&#8217;t see Watford beating them at WHL.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Stoke v Liverpool: <strong>AWAY (1.4) &#8212;<\/strong> not great odds, but I think they&#8217;ll do it.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Middlesbrough v Burnley: <strong>AWAY (3.4)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">West Ham v Swansea: <strong>HOME (2.16)<\/strong> <strong>&#8212;<\/strong> West Ham will do enough to survive (this season). Games like this they might grind out.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Brom v Southampton: <strong>HOME (3.15)<\/strong> <strong>&#8212;<\/strong> at home I think these are good odds.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Man City v Hull: <strong>HOME (1.22)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Bournemouth v Chelsea: <strong>AWAY (1.56)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v Man United: <strong>DRAW (5.4) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>United might have some talent, but don&#8217;t have the mentality to &#8216;guarantee wins&#8217;.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v Leicester: <strong>DRAW (4.0) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>this could go any way. But has the makings of a close one.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Crystal Palace v Arsenal: <strong>DRAW (4.0) &#8212; <\/strong>Palace need this. They know Arsenal aren&#8217;t invincible.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a318.30 (-36.60% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a361.35 (+6.04% ROI)<\/p><pre>Once again, I made the shout that the underdog would over-perform - but I got the selection wrong (Palace). What we're seeing is how the <a href=\"http:\/\/punter2pro.com\/sure-confident-winning-betting-gambling-swings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">variance<\/a> (swings) even themselves out over time. At this rate my initial prediction of \"break even\" is on the cards...<\/pre><h3>Week 20 Selections (04\/04\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Burnley v Stoke: <strong>HOME<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>(2.5)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Leicester v Sunderland: <strong>DRAW (4.5) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Sunderland are totally doomed this season. But for me Leicester aren&#8217;t as good as their odds suggest.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Watford v West Brom: <strong>AWAY (3.4) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>West Brom are more than capable of winning this fixture.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v Everton: <strong>AWAY (6.8) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>can&#8217;t help but think that United won&#8217;t gain the consistency they want.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Arsenal v West Ham: <strong>DRAW (5.3) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Billic needs a good result, so does Wenger.\u00a0A draw could happen.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Hull v Middlesbrough: <strong>AWAY (4.2) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>it should be close, yet Hull are strong favourites.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Southampton v Crystal Palace: <strong>AWAY (4.9) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong> for me this was a no-brainer. Southampton aren&#8217;t <em>that\u00a0<\/em>great, and Palace will have the confidence to take on any one at the moment. A win also means more to Palace.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Swansea v Spurs:\u00a0<strong>AWAY (1.74)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Chelsea v Man City: <strong>HOME (2.42) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I don&#8217;t see City causing an upset.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Liverpool v Bournemouth: <strong>AWAY (9.6) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>for me Liverpool being 1.4 against a team they lost to earlier this season (amongst others) seems a little\u00a0excessive.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a316.70 (-33.40% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a30.00 (+8.25% ROI)<\/p><pre>West Ham are <em>really<\/em> making hard work of staying safe! It's a little unlucky to make the observations that United and Liverpool\u00a0were likely to drop points - but yet again I didn't make the right selection. I'm due a good result.<\/pre><h3>Week 19 Selections (01\/04\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Liverpool v Everton: <strong>AWAY (6.0) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Everton have played well of late. Liverpool are unpredictable at times. I don&#8217;t think this derby is as one sided as the odds suggest.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Burnley v Spurs: <strong>DRAW (4.1) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I went to the home game this season at WHL. Of the bottom half teams, only Burnley really have given Spurs a tough match.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Chelsea v Crystal Palace: <strong>DRAW (6.0) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>can&#8217;t help but think that Chelsea won&#8217;t always beat teams by 1 goal. There&#8217;s got to be some &#8216;give&#8217;.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Hull v West Ham: <strong>HOME (2.48)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Leicester v Stoke: <strong>AWAY (4.1) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Stoke have been the better team so far this season.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v West Brom: <strong>AWAY (13.5) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>United have came close to losing some winnable games at Old Trafford. I fancy West Brom to give it a good go.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Watford v Sunderland: <strong>AWAY (4.8) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Watford haven&#8217;t impressed me much. I think Sunderland could do it.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Southampton v Bournemouth: <strong>DRAW (4.0)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Swansea v Middlesbrough: <strong>AWAY (4.2) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>this could go either way, so the odds don&#8217;t look bad.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Arsenal v Man City: <strong>HOME (3.2) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I really wanted to bet on City. I think City will win. But 3.2 for Arsenal at home seems exaggerated. I think at home Arsenal are fairly balanced with City.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a317.60 (-35.20% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a396.35 (+10.53% ROI)<\/p><pre>Results didn't go my way - but would have done well for backing\/laying on Betfair. Particularly on the Chelsea, United, and Arsenal fixtures. The ROI is now at a level I believe is reasonable and achievable. Where will it go from here? Will I keep it in the green?<\/pre><h3>Week 18 Selections (18\/03\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Brom v Arsenal: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(1.79)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Crystal Palace v Watford: <strong>AWAY (4.8) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Watford have been the better side this season, so the odds must reflect the fact that Palace need the win more? For me the value is <em>still<\/em> Watford.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v Hull: <strong>AWAY (7.4) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>they&#8217;ve been good of late, but I don&#8217;t buy into <em>Everton<\/em> too much. I think they&#8217;re still capable of losing winnable games like these.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Stoke v Chelsea: <strong>AWAY (1.64)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v Burnley: <strong>HOME (2.6)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">West Ham v Leicester: <strong>AWAY (3.35) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>close one to call. Fancy Leicester to fight for the 3 points. It means a lot for them at this stage.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Bournemouth v Swansea: <strong>DRAW (3.55)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Middlesbrough v Man United: <strong>AWAY (1.75)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Spurs v Southampton: <strong>DRAW (3.95) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Spurs are due a &#8216;bad&#8217; result. I don&#8217;t feel it will be a loss at WHL. But a draw could easily happen.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man City v Liverpool: <strong>AWAY (3.95) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>not so convincing against Burnley last weekend, but Liverpool are very unpredictable. I think they&#8217;ll turn up and win this.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a316.30 (-32.60% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a3113.95 (+13.17% ROI)<\/p><pre>Some pretty close calls. Liverpool could've won, Spurs could've drawn. I'm seeing that the results are 'evening' themselves out following a winning spell. +13.17% is still on the high side and not a bad position after 175 bets.<\/pre><h3>Week 17 Selections (11\/03\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man City v Stoke: <strong>HOME (1.25) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>City need to maintain pressure at the top. I don&#8217;t see them losing or drawing to Stoke.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Bournemouth v West Ham: <strong>HOME (2.7)<\/strong> <strong>&#8212;<\/strong> these odds aren&#8217;t bad. I fancy them to win this.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v West Brom: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(5.9) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I think Everton will win. But at these odds, i think West Brom are value. They&#8217;re only 4 points off Everton.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Hull v Swansea: <strong>AWAY (3.1) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I feel that momentum is with Swansea. I think they&#8217;ll contribute to Hull&#8217;s plight.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Liverpool v Burnley: <strong>AWAY (15.0) &#8212; <\/strong>I say it a lot, but Burnley are underrated.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>NOTE<\/strong>:\u00a0FA Cup fixtures means less Premier League matches.<\/em><\/p><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a311.50 (-46.00% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a3130.25 (+15.98% ROI)<\/p><pre>The Hull v Swansea relegation battle didn't go the way I predicted. Burnley had the better of Liverpool for most the game but Can's goal was class. Not my week - but not very many games to go by, either.<\/pre><h3>Week 16 Selections (04\/03\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v Bournemouth: <strong>AWAY (14.0) &#8212;<\/strong> at these odds I think Bournemouth are decent value.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Brom v Crystal Palace: <strong>HOME (2.38) &#8212; <\/strong>don&#8217;t fancy Palace to go on a winning spree any time soon. Especially against solid teams like West Brom.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Burnley v Swansea: <strong>AWAY (2.04)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Watford v Southampton: <strong>AWAY (2.02)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Leicester v Hull: <strong>HOME (1.84) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>capable of losing, but they have the &#8216;boost&#8217; of a new manager.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Stoke v Middlesbrough: <strong>HOME (2.08)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Liverpool v Arsenal:<strong> DRAW (3.6) &#8212; <\/strong>should be tight.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Spurs v Everton:<strong> HOME (1.68) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Spurs are\u00a0stronger. If they turn up then Everton will have difficulty.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v Man City: <strong>DRAW (6.4) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>City are well capable of\u00a0a poor result here.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">West Ham v Chelsea:<strong> AWAY (1.66) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>can&#8217;t see any other outcome than an away win.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a36.60 (13.20% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a3141.75 (+17.94% ROI)<\/p><pre>I felt there was value in Bournemouth - shame I didn't go for the draw. Still, this week evens out last week's minor loss.<\/pre><h3>Week 15 Selections (18\/02\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Spurs v Stoke: <strong>HOME (1.4) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>a bad patch for Spurs, but Stoke shouldn&#8217;t be the first team to beat them at WHL this season.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough: <strong>AWAY (4.2) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>fancy Palace to win, but the odds don&#8217;t offer much value for me. &#8216;Away&#8217; it is.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Chelsea v Swansea: <strong>DRAW (6.4) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>admittedly, I wasn&#8217;t comfortable making any selection on this. I think the draw is feasible given Swansea&#8217;s recent performances.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v Sunderland: <strong>AWAY (9.2) &#8212;<\/strong> fancy Sunderland to put in a good performance in a bid to save their lives.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Hull v Burnley: <strong>AWAY (3.85)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Brom v Bournemouth: <strong>DRAW (3.45)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Watford v West Ham: <strong>HOME (2.7) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>two pretty even opponents. But Watford might edge this one.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Leicester v Liverpool: <strong>HOME (5.9) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>you&#8217;ve got to fancy Liverpool &#8211; but they aren&#8217;t reliable. Leicester need a result\u00a0now. Makings of a good fixture.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>NOTE<\/strong>: 2 fixtures have been postponed.<\/em><\/p><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a33.50 (-0.09% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a3135.15 (+18.26% ROI)<\/p><pre>The Leicester selection was a good one. But there were too many other ambitious selections to generate a profit this week.<\/pre><h3>Week 14 Selections (11\/02\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Arsenal v Hull: <strong>DRAW\u00a0(6.4) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>didn&#8217;t see value in Arsenal on this one<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v Watford: <strong>DRAW (6.8)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Middlesbrough v Everton: <strong>HOME (3.85) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Everton are favourites, but aren&#8217;t particularly consistent<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Stoke v Crystal Palace: <strong>AWAY (3.9)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v Southampton: <strong>HOME (3.95) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Sunderland are fighting for their lives. It&#8217;s a tough, but winnable game for them.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Ham v West Brom: <strong>AWAY (3.75) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>West Ham haven&#8217;t <em>really<\/em> maintained good form for long this season.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Liverpool v Spurs: <strong>AWAY (3.5) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Liverpool will almost certainly turn up for this. But Spurs have shown resilience; they&#8217;re hard to beat.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Burnley v Chelsea: <strong>AWAY (1.44)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Swansea v Leicester: <strong>AWAY (3.3) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Swansea have improved, but still fancy Leicester to bounce back from some poor results.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Bournemouth v Man City: <strong>DRAW (5.1)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a350.00 (-100.00% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a3138.65 (+19.80% ROI)<\/p><pre>Oh Dear! White Wash!<\/pre><h3>Week 13 Selections (04\/02\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Chelsea\u00a0v Arsenal: <strong>DRAW\u00a0(3.7) &#8212; <\/strong>should be a close one.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Crystal Palace v Sunderland: <strong>AWAY (5.8)<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>&#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s such a huge\u00a0difference in these teams.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v Bournemouth: <strong>AWAY (5.6)<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Hull v Liverpool: <strong>AWAY (1.49) &#8212;<\/strong> fancy Liverpool to bounce back<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Southampton v West Ham: <strong>AWAY (4.8) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>both of these teams have has some unpredictable results. Anyone&#8217;s game.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Watford v Burnley: <strong>HOME (2.18) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>I think Burnley are the tougher side. But I feel that Watford may gain\u00a0a bit of momentum after the Arsenal away win.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Brom v Stoke: <strong>AWAY (3.55)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Spurs v Middlesbrough: <strong>DRAW\u00a0(6.2) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>with injuries to key players like Danny Rose, Spurs\u00a0lack a bit of creativity.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man City v Swansea: <strong>DRAW (7.6) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>such little value in the home win, that I think the draw is a better option.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Leicester v Man United: <strong>HOME (6.0) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Leicester must\u00a0sense United&#8217;s recent\u00a0frustration. There&#8217;s every chance they can win this.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a313.90 (+27.8% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a3188.65 (+29.02% ROI)<\/p><pre>Pleased with the selections on Sunderland and West Ham. Saved the week.<\/pre><h3>Week 12 Selections (31\/01\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Arsenal v Watford: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(15.5) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>Arsenal should win comfortably, but the odds still look good here<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Bournemouth v Crystal Palace: <strong>AWAY (4.0) &#8212; <\/strong>an Allardyce<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>win has got to come soon&#8230;<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Burnley v Leicester: <strong>HOME\u00a0(3.1)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Middlesbrough v West Brom: <strong>AWAY (3.15)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v Spurs: <strong>AWAY (1.39)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Swansea v Southampton: <strong>AWAY (2.42) &#8212; <\/strong>expect a bounce back from the heavy Arsenal FA Cup defeat<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Liverpool v Chelsea: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(3.0) &#8212;<\/strong>\u00a0the better side should be capable of grinding out\u00a0this important away win<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">West Ham v Man City: <strong>AWAY (1.6)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v Hull: <strong>AWAY (20.0) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>if Hull played even better teams like Arsenal\/Spurs\/City away would the odds be 20.0? I doubt it.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Stoke v Everton: <strong>DRAW (3.45) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>hard to separate these two when Stoke are at home.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = +\u00a388.25 (+176.5% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a3174.75 (+29.13% ROI)<\/p><pre>Watford's win vs Arsenal brought the trend right back into line!<\/pre><h3>Week 11 Selections (21\/01\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Liverpool v Swansea: <strong>HOME\u00a0(1.24)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Bournemouth v\u00a0Watford: <strong>AWAY (4.8) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>it&#8217;s about time Watford came back to good form<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Crystal Palace v Everton: <strong>AWAY (2.44)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Middlesbrough v West Ham: <strong>AWAY (3.3) <\/strong>&#8212; fancy West Ham to continue\u00a0proving that they don&#8217;t need Payet (for now).<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Stoke v Man United: <strong>AWAY (1.63)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Brom v Sunderland: <strong>AWAY (6.0)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man City v Spurs: <strong>AWAY (3.65)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Southampton v Leicester: <strong>AWAY (5.3) &#8212;\u00a0<\/strong>i feel like\u00a0these odds are too high<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Arsenal v Burnley: <strong>AWAY (17.0) <\/strong>&#8212; it&#8217;s a longshot but i think the odds are exaggerated<\/span><\/li><li>Chelsea v Hull: <strong>HOME (1.19) &#8212;<\/strong> no hope for Hull!<\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a315.35 (-30.7% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a386.5 (+15.72% ROI)<\/p><pre>Not much joy here. Similar to last week.<\/pre><h3>Week 10 Selections (14\/01\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Spurs v West Brom: <strong>DRAW (5.4)<\/strong> &#8212;<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>West Brom are a<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>difficult team to beat<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Burnley v Southampton: <strong>HOME (3.65)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Hull v Bournemouth: <strong>AWAY (2.4)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v Stoke: <strong>HOME (3.1) <\/strong>&#8212; not bad odds at home for Sunderland<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Swansea v Arsenal: <strong>AWAY (1.53)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Watford v Middlesbrough: <strong>HOME (2.56)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Ham v Crystal Palace: <strong>AWAY (3.3)<\/strong> &#8212; it&#8217;s shambles at West Ham. I don&#8217;t see them performing well.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Leicester v Chelsea: <strong>AWAY (1.8)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v Man City: <strong>AWAY (1.85)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v Liverpool: <strong>AWAY (3.85)<\/strong> &#8212; Liverpool stand a great chance.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a315.10 (-30.2% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a3101.85 (+20.37% ROI)<\/p><pre>Not a horrendous loss.\u00a0To next week...<\/pre><h3>Week 9 Selections (02\/01\/2017)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Middlesbrough v Leicester: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(2.94)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; it&#8217;s unlikely to be a clear-cut win.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v Southampton:<strong> DRAW (3.4)<\/strong> &#8212; find it hard to separate these 2 teams.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man City v Burnley: <strong>DRAW (8.8) <\/strong>&#8212; i think these odds are a bit exaggerated, and I&#8217;ve noticed this happens with Burnley specifically.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v Liverpool: <strong>AWAY (1.36)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Brom v Hull: <strong>DRAW (3.65)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; didn&#8217;t fancy a West Brom win at the odds offered.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">West Ham v Man United: <strong>AWAY (1.66)<\/strong> &#8212; West Ham being at home hasn&#8217;t had\u00a0any real impact.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Bournemouth v Arsenal: <strong>AWAY (1.86)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Crystal Palace v Swansea: <strong>HOME (1.82)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; Allardyce&#8217;s best opportunity to bag\u00a0his first win at Palace.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Stoke v Watford: <strong>AWAY (5.3)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; Spurs thrashing Watford may have impacted these odds. But these 2 teams are very comparable.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Spurs v Chelsea: <strong>DRAW (3.4)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; i don&#8217;t think Spurs will quite manage the win they want.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a341.70 (-83.4% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a3116.95 (+25.98% ROI)<\/p><pre>I regret not having more faith in Spurs! It would've softened the blow...<\/pre><h3>Week 8 Selections (30\/12\/2016)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Hull v Everton: <strong>DRAW (3.55)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; Hull are poor, but have had also had some bad luck.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Burnley v Sunderland: <strong>HOME (2.44)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Chelsea v Stoke: <strong>DRAW (6.2)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; Chelsea are due a slip-up soon<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Leicester v West Ham: <strong>HOME (2.12)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v Middlesbrough: <strong>AWAY (17.0)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; it&#8217;s unlikely, but United aren&#8217;t exactly robust.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Southampton v West Brom: <strong>AWAY (5.6)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; Southampton&#8217;s superb home record might have a little too much weight in these odds against a similar opponent.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Swansea v Bournemouth: <strong>HOME (2.94)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Liverpool v Man City: <strong>AWAY (3.15)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; interesting fixture. I think City can match Liverpool&#8217;s attacking game, and possibly pip it.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Watford v Spurs: <strong>DRAW (3.95)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; Spurs don&#8217;t look like losing, but are due a bad result.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Arsenal v Crystal Palace: <strong>DRAW (5.8)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; just about enough time has passed for Allardyce to start parking the bus.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a318.55 (+37.1% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a3158.65 (+39.66% ROI)<\/p><pre>Middlesbrough, I'm sure, was a value bet. Or not? So close to winning. Would've shot the Profit through the roof! Nevermind.<\/pre><h3>Week 7 Selections (26\/12\/2016)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Watford v Crystal Palace: <strong>DRAW (3.35)<\/strong> &#8212; Allardyce&#8217;s impact probably isn&#8217;t in full effect yet<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Arsenal v West Brom: <strong>AWAY (11.5)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; tough match for Arsenal. No walkover.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Burnley v Middlesbrough: <strong>HOME (3.05)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; think Burnley should be favourites at home.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Chelsea v Bournemouth: <strong>HOME (1.42)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Leicester v Everton: <strong>DRAW (3.4)<\/strong> &#8212; Everton have a lot to prove after their derby loss<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v Sunderland: <strong>DRAW (7.2) <\/strong>&#8212; fancy a surprise result here<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Swansea v West Ham: <strong>AWAY (2.88)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Hull v Man City: <strong>AWAY (1.35)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; the odds aren&#8217;t tempting enough. Hull are poor.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Liverpool v Stoke: <strong>HOME<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>(1.32)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Southampton v Spurs: <strong>AWAY (2.7)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a330.35 (+60.7% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a3140.10 (+40.0% ROI)<\/p><pre>Tidy profit. Wise selections here.<\/pre><h3>Week 6 Selections (17\/12\/2016)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Crystal Palace v Chelsea: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(1.6)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; i think they&#8217;ll strengthen their title bid with a win<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Middlesbrough v Swansea: <strong>HOME\u00a0(2.18)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Stoke v Leicester: <strong>DRAW\u00a0(3.45)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; it&#8217;s a tight one to call<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Sunderland\u00a0v Watford: <strong>HOME\u00a0(2.68)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Ham v Hull: <strong>DRAW\u00a0(4.1)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">West Brom v Man United: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(1.77)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Bournemouth v Southampton: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(2.66)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; Bournemouth have been on a good run, but I think it&#8217;ll end.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Man City v Arsenal: <strong>HOME\u00a0(2.26)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; big game between 2 similar teams. Fancy City to\u00a0really go for the win.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Spurs v Burnley: <strong>DRAW\u00a0(7.0) <\/strong>&#8212; it only takes an early goal to stun Spurs. They may have trouble breaking Burnley down.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v Liverpool: <strong>HOME (4.0)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; at those odds, at home, in the derby game, I think it&#8217;s a decent pick.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a333.00 (+66.0% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a3109.75 (+36.58% ROI)<\/p><pre>That early goal <strong>did<\/strong> come for Burnley. But not enough to get them the draw. They're a stronger team than their odds suggest, though.<\/pre><h3>Week 5 Selections (13\/12\/2016)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Bournemouth v Leicester: <strong>DRAW (3.5)\u00a0<\/strong> &#8212; Leicester probably won&#8217;t live up to the weekend&#8217;s\u00a0win<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v Arsenal: <strong>AWAY\u00a0(1.94)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; Arsenal\u00a0can solidify their title contention with a win over an inferior\u00a0opponent<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Middlesbrough v Liverpool: <strong>AWAY (1.63)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; Liverpool are due their next win<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Ham v Burnley: <strong>AWAY (5.8) <\/strong>&#8212; these teams are comparable, and West Ham are poor at home&#8230;<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Sunderland v Chelsea: <strong>AWAY (1.38)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man City v Watford: <strong>DRAW\u00a0(6.6) <\/strong>&#8212; think there&#8217;s value in the draw here. City are fragile.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">West Brom v Swansea: <strong>HOME (2.1)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Stoke v Southampton: <strong>DRAW (3.3)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Crystal Palace v Man United: <strong>AWAY (1.75)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Spurs v Hull: <strong>HOME (1.25)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; i see Spurs bouncing back after the disappointing weekend<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a37.05 (+14.1% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a376.75 (+30.7% ROI)<\/p><pre>Indeed Leicester didn't live up to the previous week. But they went as far as to lose... not a bad week in general, though.<\/pre><h3>Week 4 Selections (10\/12\/2016)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Watford v Everton: <strong>AWAY (2.54)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Arsenal v Stoke: <strong>HOME (1.37)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Burnley v Bournemouth: <strong>HOME (3.6)<\/strong> &#8212; Bournemouth may come down to earth after\u00a0last week&#8217;s big win<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Hull v Crystal Palace: <strong>DRAW (3.35)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Swansea v Sunderland: <strong>AWAY (3.75) <\/strong>&#8212; Swansea are so unconvincing that even Sunderland can beat them.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Leicester v Man City: <strong>DRAW (4.1) <\/strong>&#8212; they&#8217;ve got to get points from somewhere&#8230;<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Chelsea v West Brom: <strong>DRAW (6.4)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v Spurs: <strong>AWAY (3.55)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; Spurs have picked themselves up a bit. This is an important game.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Southampton v Middlesbrough: <strong>AWAY (6.4)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Liverpool v West Ham: <strong>DRAW (6.0) <\/strong>&#8212; ambitious selection, but perhaps they&#8217;ll be motivated by how close they are to the relegation zone<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a321.60 (+43.2% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a369.70 (+34.85% ROI)<\/p><pre>Liverpool\u00a0don't look all that consistent. Pleased that selection came off.<\/pre><h3>Week 3 Selections (03\/12\/2016)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Man City v Chelsea: <strong>AWAY (3.7)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; well capable of winning this<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Spurs v Swansea\u00a0<strong>AWAY<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>(10.5) <\/strong>&#8212; home win for Spurs is likely, but can&#8217;t help thinking 10.5 is decent<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Stoke v Burnley <b>AWAY (6.2) <\/b>&#8212; these teams are fairly comparable at the moment. Good odds.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">West Ham v Arsenal <strong>DRAW (4.1)<\/strong> &#8212; West Ham may rise to the occasion\u00a0to scrape a point (to the relief of\u00a0Billic)<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Sunderland v Leicester <strong>HOME (3.3) <\/strong>&#8212; forget last year. Underdogs Sunderland can beat Leicester at home<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Crystal Palace v Southampton <strong>DRAW (3.4)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">West Brom v Watford <strong>HOME (2.2)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Bournemouth v Liverpool <strong>AWAY (1.78)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Everton v Man United <strong>AWAY (2.18) <\/strong>&#8212; not played particularly badly of late. Fancy them to be rewarded.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Middlesbrough v Hull <strong>AWAY (5.4)<\/strong> &#8212; expect a home win, but these teams are comparable. Why 5.4?..<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = -\u00a34.00 (-8.0% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a348.10 (+32.06% ROI)<\/p><pre>I don't have much faith in Leicester. And that's\u00a0helped end the week pretty flat.<\/pre><h3>Week 2 Selections (26\/11\/2016)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Burnley v Man City: <strong>AWAY (1.34)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Swansea v Crystal Palace: <strong>HOME (2.66)<\/strong> &#8212;\u00a0big game for Swansea. I\u00a0fancy them to take all 3 points at home.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Liverpool v Sunderland:\u00a0<strong>DRAW (8.4) <\/strong>&#8212; Liverpool should win, but at these odds the draw looks good.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Leicester v Middlesbrough: <strong>HOME (1.93)<\/strong> &#8212; despite some poor league results I think they&#8217;ll win.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Hull v West Brom: <strong>DRAW (3.25)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Chelsea v Spurs: <strong>HOME (1.76)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; can&#8217;t see Spurs wining this if current form is anything to go by.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Watford v Stoke: <strong>AWAY (3.4)<\/strong> &#8212; Watford are on a high after beating champions Leicester, but I think Stoke might stun them.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Southampton v Everton: <strong>HOME (2.16)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Arsenal v Bournemouth: <strong>DRAW (5.2)<\/strong> &#8212; a feasible outcome with decent-looking odds.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Man United v West Ham: <strong>HOME (1.48)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a322.85 (+45.7% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a352.10 (+22.85% ROI)<\/p><pre>Spurs played better than I expected... but still lost.\u00a0Least it helped the profit.<\/pre><h3>Week 1 Selections (19\/11\/2016)<\/h3><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Man United v Arsenal: <strong>DRAW (3.4)<\/strong> &#8212; backing a United win doesn&#8217;t look like value.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Watford v Leicester: <strong>HOME WIN (2.94)<\/strong> &#8212; The champions aren&#8217;t living up to their title.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Everton v Swansea:\u00a0<strong>DRAW (4.4)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Southampton v Liverpool: <strong>AWAY WIN (2.14)\u00a0<\/strong>&#8212; can&#8217;t see Liverpool losing this.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Sunderland v Hull:\u00a0<strong>DRAW (3.4)<\/strong> &#8212; think it&#8217;ll be tight.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Crystal Palace v Man City:\u00a0<strong>AWAY WIN (1.55)<\/strong> &#8212; can only see this going one way.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Stoke v Bournemouth:\u00a0<strong>HOME\u00a0WIN (2.3)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Spurs v West Ham: <strong>HOME WIN (1.57) <\/strong>&#8212; Spurs should break their &#8216;drawing streak&#8217;<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Middlesbrough v Chelsea:\u00a0<strong>DRAW (4.3)<\/strong> &#8212;<strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>think Middlesbrough could\u00a0cause an upset.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">West Brom v Burnley:\u00a0<strong>HOME WIN (1.99)<\/strong><\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><em><strong>Week Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a329.25 (+58.5% ROI)<\/p><p><em><strong>Running Profit\/Loss<\/strong><\/em> = \u00a329.25 (+58.5% ROI)<\/p><pre>Off to a flying start!<\/pre>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The \u2018Mug Betting Experiment\u2019 mimicked how regular sports bettors bet on football. The \u2018Mug Bets\u2019 were based entirely on opinion, without any statistical analysis. The experiment was run for (almost) the entire 2016\/17 Premier League Football season, with all bets placed on the Betfair exchange. Remarkably, it broke completely even with a 0.00% ROI. The end result serves as an example of what casual punters could expect to achieve over the mid-to-long-term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-3681","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Mug Betting Experiment &#8212; Punter2Pro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Will I turn a profit by Mug Betting? How well can I fair by relying solely on my intuition and knowledge of Premier League football? 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