Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Forecast: ATP Shanghai
Daniil Medvedev
Tommy PaulUpdated 15.10 06:03: Медведев сохраняет статус уверенного фаворита, изменений в расстановке сил перед четвертьфиналом нет. Оставляем исход П1.
Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul meet at Qizhong in Shanghai for a place in the semifinals. The quarterfinal is scheduled for October 15, with both players arriving unbeaten through three rounds. Their set records separate them slightly: Medvedev has dropped one, while Paul has yet to concede one.
Medvedev: stronger recent results beyond Shanghai
Form and tournament progress
Medvedev has won four of his last five matches. His Shanghai run began with a three-set win over Jan-Lennard Struff, followed by straight-set victories against Dalibor Svrcina and Stefanos Tsitsipas. That progression matters: after an extended opening match, he advanced through the next two rounds without needing a deciding set. The preceding Beijing results were a 2:0 win over Francisco Cerundolo and a recorded 0:1 loss to Novak Djokovic; that latter score alone does not establish why the match ended.
Strengths, workload and motivation
His Shanghai set balance is 6–1. He last competed on October 14. After advancing, Medvedev said he loves Shanghai and wants to stay in the tournament as long as possible.
- Stefanos Tsitsipashome2:0
- Dalibor Svrcinahome2:0
- Jan-Lennard Struffhome2:1
- Novak Djokovicaway0:1
- Francisco Cerundolohome2:0
Paul: a clean run after two defeats
Recent form and the change in results
Paul has won three of his last five matches, beating Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, Valentin Vacherot and Zizou Bergs by identical 2:0 scores in Shanghai. Before that sequence, he lost 0:3 to Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open and 0:2 to Alejandro Tabilo in Tokyo. The contrast is sharp, although three tournament matches remain too small a sample to establish how reliably he can sustain this level against Medvedev.
Preparation and physical demands
Paul also finished his latest match on October 14. Paul said this matchup requires a clear plan and patience because Medvedev rarely makes mistakes and forces opponents to earn each point. His stated priority is therefore rally discipline rather than expecting cheap errors.
- Zizou Bergshome2:0
- Valentin Vacherothome2:0
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejohome2:0
- Alejandro Tabiloaway0:2
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfiahome0:3
Previous meetings favour Medvedev
Medvedev leads the four listed meetings 3–1. Paul’s sole victory came in Rome in May 2024, while Medvedev won their latest encounter at Indian Wells in March 2025. The history supports a matchup advantage for Medvedev.
- 12.03.2025Tommy Paul0:2Daniil MedvedevATP. Indian Wells
- 14.05.2024Tommy Paul2:0Daniil MedvedevATP. Rome
- 17.03.2024Tommy Paul1:2Daniil MedvedevATP. Indian Wells
- 29.09.2023Tommy Paul0:2Daniil MedvedevATP. Beijing
- 02.06.2021Tommy Paul1:3Daniil MedvedevATP. Roland Garros
What remains unconfirmed before play
No injury updates, suspensions or independent expert assessments are supplied. Current rankings, serve and return percentages, break-point figures and a surface-specific results breakdown are also unavailable, so neither player can be assigned a measurable advantage in those categories.
Our pick: Medvedev to advance
Our bet is W1 1.45. The key distinction is the opposition behind the two winning runs, rather than their identical three-match streaks in Shanghai. Medvedev’s 2:0 victory over Tsitsipas is the stronger recent test for this quarterfinal; Paul’s straight-set progress has come against Vallejo, Vacherot and Bergs. Paul’s earlier 0:3 loss to Alcaraz also cautions against treating his clean tournament record as proof that he can control this matchup.
Medvedev has won three of their four listed meetings, so the preference rests on direct results as well as recent opposition. Paul has said he needs patience and a clear plan against an opponent who makes him earn each point: his route to victory requires sustained execution, not simply carrying forward his early-round scores. The predicted score is 2:0 to Medvedev, although Paul’s unbeaten run makes a close set credible.
Final call
W1 1.45 is the selection: Medvedev’s stronger recent test and advantage in this matchup outweigh Paul’s cleaner path through the opening rounds.
FAQ
When does Daniil Medvedev — Tommy Paul kick off?
The match starts on 16.10.2026 at 06:00 (New York), Qizhong (Shanghai).
What is the prediction for Daniil Medvedev — Tommy Paul?
Our pick is W1 at 1.45.
Team form
- Stefanos Tsitsipashome2:0
- Dalibor Svrcinahome2:0
- Jan-Lennard Struffhome2:1
- Novak Djokovicaway0:1
- Francisco Cerundolohome2:0
- Zizou Bergshome2:0
- Valentin Vacherothome2:0
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejohome2:0
- Alejandro Tabiloaway0:2
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfiahome0:3
Head-to-head
- 12.03.2025Tommy Paul0:2Daniil MedvedevATP. Indian Wells
- 14.05.2024Tommy Paul2:0Daniil MedvedevATP. Rome
- 17.03.2024Tommy Paul1:2Daniil MedvedevATP. Indian Wells
- 29.09.2023Tommy Paul0:2Daniil MedvedevATP. Beijing
- 02.06.2021Tommy Paul1:3Daniil MedvedevATP. Roland Garros
About the match
- 16 October · 06:00 New York
- Venue: Qizhong (Shanghai), Shankhay
Odds
Odds updated 15.10 03:20
Game totals: almost an even split
The supplied market covers Over/Under 22.5 games only. Over carries a margin-free probability of 50.7%, against 49.3% for Under, with no notable movement over the last 24 hours. That is a narrow preference for the higher total, not strong market conviction. No match-winner market is supplied, so a bookmaker favourite cannot be identified.
Set scores alone cannot resolve this line: a straight-set match can exceed it through close sets, while a three-set match can stay below it if sets are short. With no game-by-game scores or service-hold figures supplied, the available results describe progression and workload more clearly than the likely game count.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.45
- Odds at prediction
- 1.5
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 64%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.46
- Potential win
- 46 $
- Status
- pending
