ATP Paris Prediction: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar Match Preview
Alejandro Tabilo
Rafael JodarAlejandro Tabilo faces Rafael Jodar at Bercy Arena in Paris for a place in the round of 32. The match listing gives November 2 at 04:00 America/New_York.
Tabilo: results below his season average
Recent form and set balance
Tabilo has one win and four defeats in his last five matches. His straight-sets victory over Tommy Paul is his only success in that sequence. He then lost to Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno Busta in deciding sets before his latest defeat extended his losing run to three matches.
Strengths, weaknesses and court record
Tabilo has a 26–26 ATP record this season, including 8–9 on hard courts. Winning a set in both deciding-set defeats shows that he remained competitive, but neither match became a recovery point. His hard-court record is below break-even and does not establish a separate level for the Paris conditions.
Physical status and preparation
Tabilo last played on October 27. Match duration and physical workload are not supplied. His current ranking, injury status and serve-and-return percentages are unavailable.
- Rafael Jodarhome0:2
- Pablo Carreno Bustahome1:2
- Denis Shapovalovaway1:2
- Tommy Paulhome2:0
- Adrian Mannarinohome0:2
Jodar: stronger form with a shorter turnaround
Recent results and ranking progress
Jodar has won three of his last five matches. Wins over Casper Ruud and Daniil Medvedev preceded defeats to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Valentin Vacherot. He took at least one set in every match of that sequence. He is also scheduled to enter the ATP top 10 next week, reaching that milestone in his debut season.
What the scorelines establish
Two of Jodar's recent wins came in straight sets, while both defeats required a decider. That gives him a stronger recent set profile than Tabilo, without proving superiority in any service or return category. A surface-specific season record, break-point figures and service-hold rates are not supplied, so the scorelines cannot explain precisely how he built that advantage.
Workload before Paris
Jodar's last appearance was on October 29, four calendar days before this match. No playing-time figure quantifies fatigue. No injury update is supplied for him.
- Valentin Vacherotaway1:2
- Alejandro Tabiloaway2:0
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokinaaway1:2
- Daniil Medvedevhome2:0
- Casper Ruudhome2:1
The matchup has shifted towards Jodar
Jodar leads the four recorded meetings 3–1. Tabilo won their Indian Wells encounter 2–0; Jodar then prevailed 2–1 in Washington and 2–0 in both Cincinnati and Basel. The aggregate set score is 6–3 to Jodar. Only one meeting reached a deciding set, but without individual set scores, that history cannot establish how often a games total was exceeded.
- 27.10.2026Alejandro Tabilo0:2Rafael JodarATP. Basel
- 17.08.2026Rafael Jodar2:0Alejandro TabiloATP. Cincinnati
- 02.08.2026Rafael Jodar2:1Alejandro TabiloATP. Washington
- 06.03.2026Alejandro Tabilo2:0Rafael JodarATP. Indian Wells
Scheduling reports do not fully agree
The supplied match notices give different dates: one lists November 1 at 13:00, while another gives November 2 at 12:00 Moscow time. The fixture listing used here follows the latter date. No expert comments or additional fitness updates are supplied.
Our prediction
Our pick is W2 1.23 on Rafael Jodar. The Spaniard has won three of his last five matches, including straight-set victories over Daniil Medvedev and Alejandro Tabilo. His latest meeting with Tabilo in Basel ended 2:0 on October 27, and it was Jodar’s third consecutive win in this matchup. Across four official meetings, he leads 3–1, with two of those victories coming without dropping a set.
Tabilo enters Paris after four defeats in five matches and a current three-match losing streak. He has lost both of his last two contests against Jodar 0:2, while his overall ATP record this season is balanced at 26–26 and stands at 8–9 on hard courts. Jodar’s recent ranking breakthrough, with a place in the ATP top 10 secured for next week, adds a strong competitive context. His two losses in the recent five-match run do not outweigh the head-to-head edge and the immediate 2:0 success over this opponent.
The expected score is 0:2 in sets for Rafael Jodar.
Conclusion
W2 1.23 is the recommended selection. Jodar combines the better recent record with three straight wins over Tabilo, while Tabilo arrives on a three-match losing run.
FAQ
When does Alejandro Tabilo — Rafael Jodar kick off?
The match starts on 02.11.2026 at 04:00 (New York), Bercy Arena (Paris).
What is the prediction for Alejandro Tabilo — Rafael Jodar?
Our pick is W2 at 1.23.
Team form
- Rafael Jodarhome0:2
- Pablo Carreno Bustahome1:2
- Denis Shapovalovaway1:2
- Tommy Paulhome2:0
- Adrian Mannarinohome0:2
- Valentin Vacherotaway1:2
- Alejandro Tabiloaway2:0
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokinaaway1:2
- Daniil Medvedevhome2:0
- Casper Ruudhome2:1
Head-to-head
- 27.10.2026Alejandro Tabilo0:2Rafael JodarATP. Basel
- 17.08.2026Rafael Jodar2:0Alejandro TabiloATP. Cincinnati
- 02.08.2026Rafael Jodar2:1Alejandro TabiloATP. Washington
- 06.03.2026Alejandro Tabilo2:0Rafael JodarATP. Indian Wells
About the match
- 2 November · 04:00 New York
- Venue: Bercy Arena (Paris)
Odds
Odds updated 01.11 05:30
A narrow lean towards the higher games total
The available market concerns Over/Under 21.5 games, not the match winner. Over carries a margin-free assessment of 51%, against 49.1% for Under, and the line has moved towards Over during the last 24 hours. That is a narrow preference rather than strong market confidence.
A straight-sets result does not settle this threshold by itself because set length matters. Recent deciding sets offer a route to a longer match, while the head-to-head sequence contains more straight-sets finishes. Without game-by-game scores or hold statistics, neither pattern supports a precise total-games projection. No winner market is available to identify a bookmaker favourite.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Current odds
- 1.23
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 78%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
