Прогноз Terence Atmane – Mattia Bellucci на ATP Almaty
Terence Atmane
Mattia BellucciTerence Atmane and Mattia Bellucci meet in the Round of 16 at ATP Almaty. Both won their opening match, while the supplied facts do not state the direct significance of this match for progression into the quarterfinals. Atmane arrives with a clean straight-set win over Rinky Hijikata, while Bellucci played Tomas Martin Etcheverry on 21 October 2026 before this match.
Terence Atmane: control after a steady run
Recent form and tournament profile
Atmane has not lost in his last five matches: three wins and two draws in the supplied match record. He scored in all five and conceded in only two matches. His recent Almaty opener ended in a 2:0 win over Hijikata, matching the straight-set victories previously recorded against Dominik Palan and Enzo Aguiard in Jingshan. The tournament sample is only one match, so it should not be treated as a full performance baseline.
Weapons and pressure points
- Three of his last five matches finished without conceding a set.
- He has scored in five consecutive matches, showing a stable attacking output.
- Two recent matches went beyond the opening set without a straight-set finish, indicating some vulnerability when the opponent extends rallies.
- His Almaty record is currently clean, with a 2:0 match balance at home.
Availability and match plan
Atmane’s likely participation is not questioned by the supplied facts. No injury or suspension is reported. According to gotennis.ru, he apologised for throwing a racket into the stands in Shanghai and spoke about mental-health problems during the season. That background makes emotional control a relevant match factor, especially if Bellucci turns the match into a long exchange of momentum.
- Rinky Hijikatahome2:0
- Bernard Tomichome1:1
- Elias Ymeraway1:1
- Enzo Aguiardhome2:0
- Dominik Palanhome2:0
Mattia Bellucci: unbeaten, but carrying a heavier schedule
Form across the last five matches
Bellucci has won all five of his latest matches, including four in Jinan and his Almaty opener against Etcheverry. He has scored in every match and is currently on a five-match winning streak; according to tennistemple.com, his wider run has reached six victories in succession.
Strengths and risks in the matchup
- Three of his last five wins were achieved before a deciding set was required.
- He has produced three wins over opponents without conceding a set during the current run: against Luka Pavlovic, Alexander Shevchenko and Shintaro Mochizuki.
- The last two matches went to three sets, increasing the physical load before this round.
- In Almaty he has already shown the ability to recover after dropping a set, finishing 2:1 against Etcheverry.
Availability and tactical outlook
The supplied facts do not state Bellucci’s injury, suspension or selection status. Bellucci’s main concern is scheduling: he played his previous Almaty match on 21 October, whereas Atmane completed his opener in straight sets. The recent results suggest resilience, but another long match would increase the demands after the opening round.
- Tomas Martin Etcheverryhome2:1
- Martin Landalucehome2:1
- Shintaro Mochizukihome2:0
- Alexander Shevchenkoaway2:0
- Luka Pavlovicaway2:0
One previous meeting, one clear reference point
The players have met once in the last five years, in Australian Open qualifying in January 2025. Atmane won 2:0 away from home, giving him a 1-0 head-to-head lead and a two-set advantage in their only recorded encounter. The sample is too small to establish a broad pattern, but it does show that Atmane has already handled this opponent in a competitive tournament setting.
- 08.01.2025Mattia Bellucci0:2Terence AtmaneAustralian Open. Qualification
News, motivation and mental factors
The latest report on Bellucci describes a player in strong form, with six consecutive victories and a successful start in Almaty. His motivation is reinforced by the chance to extend a perfect recent run, although the short recovery window after the Etcheverry match is a practical limitation.
Atmane’s reported comments about mental-health difficulties and his Shanghai racket incident add a different layer to the matchup. The supplied facts do not state his medical, injury or disciplinary status, so those aspects cannot be assessed from the available information. The clearest external signals concern Bellucci’s momentum and Atmane’s need for emotional discipline.
Our pick for Almaty
For the last-16 meeting at Almaty Arena, our pick is Handicap 2 (0) 1.76. Bellucci’s five latest matches produced a 10-2 set record: the case for backing him rests on repeated wins rather than one strong performance. His last two victories came after conceding a set, so the Italian has also shown he can finish matches without needing a straight-sets route.
Atmane presents a genuine obstacle: he beat Hijikata in two sets and won the pair’s only previous meeting. That makes a comfortable Bellucci win harder to support than the selected zero handicap. The main risk is recovery: Bellucci played on October 21, while Atmane finished his opener on October 20. No injury or suspension information is provided, so neither player should be assigned a fitness advantage beyond that scheduling difference. The expected score is 2-1 to Bellucci in sets, with his recent ability to close competitive matches carrying more weight than the older head-to-head result.
Final call
Handicap 2 (0) 1.76 is the selection, with Bellucci backed to win a competitive match rather than overwhelm Atmane.
Team form
- Rinky Hijikatahome2:0
- Bernard Tomichome1:1
- Elias Ymeraway1:1
- Enzo Aguiardhome2:0
- Dominik Palanhome2:0
- Tomas Martin Etcheverryhome2:1
- Martin Landalucehome2:1
- Shintaro Mochizukihome2:0
- Alexander Shevchenkoaway2:0
- Luka Pavlovicaway2:0
Head-to-head
- 08.01.2025Mattia Bellucci0:2Terence AtmaneAustralian Open. Qualification
About the match
- 22 October · 02:35 New York
- Venue: Almaty Arena (Almaty), Almaty
Odds
odds before kick-off
Markets and the expected match shape
The available market is centred on the games total rather than a stated 1X2-style price. The line is balanced: the under side has a marginally higher implied probability, while its odds are rising, and the over side has a slightly lower probability with odds moving down. That movement means the market is gradually giving more support to a longer match, even though the current split remains close to even.
The statistical case for a tight total comes from the head-to-head straight-set result and Atmane’s latest 2:0 win. The case for additional games comes from Bellucci’s five-match winning streak, two consecutive three-set matches, and the fact that both players have scored in all of their last five matches. Bellucci’s shorter rest is the main variable that could either produce a quick finish or reduce his level late in a deciding set.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Odds
- 1.76
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 53%
- Market estimate
- 52%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.76
- Potential win
- 76 $
- Status
- pending
