Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: ATP Almaty Prediction
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Stefanos TsitsipasNikoloz Basilashvili and Stefanos Tsitsipas meet at Almaty Arena on 24 October for a place in the ATP Almaty final. Both have won all three main-draw matches this week. The clearest distinction is their route to the semifinal: Basilashvili also came through qualifying, while Tsitsipas has already negotiated a deciding set in the main draw.
Basilashvili: five wins without dropping a set
Recent form and opposition
Basilashvili has beaten Taro Daniel, Adam Walton, Marin Cilic, Facundo Diaz Acosta and Adrian Mannarino in succession, each in straight sets. The Mannarino victory came on 23 October. His longer route through the tournament means more appearances, although the absence of deciding sets has limited his set workload.
Strengths and limits of the winning run
His main-draw set record is 6–0, with no opponent yet taking him to a third set. That is a clear strength in closing matches, but it does not establish how comfortably he has held serve or how often he has broken.
Confidence and preparation
Basilashvili said on 23 October that his confidence had returned after 12 wins over the previous month. That broader run supports his description of improved belief, rather than making this week an isolated sequence. The extra matches cannot by themselves be treated as evidence of physical difficulty.
- Adrian Mannarinohome2:0
- Facundo Diaz Acostaaway2:0
- Marin Cilicaway2:0
- Adam Waltonaway2:0
- Taro Danielaway2:0
Tsitsipas: stronger results after an opening three-setter
How his recent results compare
Tsitsipas has four wins in his last five appearances. He beat Taylor Fritz in Shanghai before losing to Daniil Medvedev, then defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic, Mikhail Kukushkin and James Duckworth in Almaty. His current winning sequence is three matches; the last two were completed without conceding a set.
Serve assessment and workload
His Almaty opener against Kovacevic required three sets. After the quarterfinal, Tsitsipas said he had dominated on serve throughout that match. This is relevant to his ability to protect service games.
Recovery before the semifinal
Tsitsipas also played his quarterfinal on 23 October. Both players therefore face a short turnaround, but match durations are missing, preventing a reliable comparison of recovery demands. No injury update is supplied for Tsitsipas.
- James Duckworthhome2:0
- Mikhail Kukushkinhome2:0
- Aleksandar Kovacevichome2:1
- Daniil Medvedevaway0:2
- Taylor Harry Fritzhome2:1
No usable completed head-to-head result
The sole listed meeting, dated 5 January 2022, carries a 0–0 score and a draw designation. That is not a completed tennis result from which to infer a winner, a matchup advantage or a game-total trend.
- 05.01.2022Stefanos Tsitsipas0:0Nikoloz BasilashviliUnited Cup
- 15.10.2021Nikoloz Basilashvili2:1Stefanos TsitsipasATP. Indian Wells
- 03.10.2019Nikoloz Basilashvili1:2Stefanos TsitsipasATP. Beijing
- 18.01.2019Stefanos Tsitsipas3:1Nikoloz BasilashviliAustralian Open
What remains unverified before play
No additional expert opinions, rankings or confirmed court-surface details are supplied; a surface-specific comparison would therefore require information beyond this match record.
W2 Prediction
Our pick is W2 1.41 on Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek has won all three of his Almaty matches and has looked increasingly secure after the opening three-set victory over Aleksandar Kovacevic: Mikhail Kukushkin and James Duckworth were both beaten 2:0. His own assessment after the quarter-final also focused on control behind the serve, which is a key factor against an opponent who has not dropped a set.
Nikoloz Basilashvili has produced an excellent run, winning five consecutive matches 2:0, including victories over Marin Cilic, Facundo Diaz Acosta and Adrian Mannarino. That form makes the matchup competitive, but his tournament sample is only three main-draw wins, while Tsitsipas has spoken of dominating on serve in the quarter-final and also has a recent victory over Taylor Fritz. The only listed meeting from 2022 ended 0:0 and cannot provide a valid advantage. The likely score is Tsitsipas 2:1.
Conclusion
W2 1.41 is the selection. Basilashvili’s straight-set streak raises the risk, yet Tsitsipas combines three wins in Almaty with his reported dominance on serve in the quarter-final, making his progression to the final the preferred outcome.
FAQ
When does Nikoloz Basilashvili — Stefanos Tsitsipas kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 06:00 (New York), Almaty Arena (Almaty).
What is the prediction for Nikoloz Basilashvili — Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Our pick is W2 at 1.41.
Team form
- Adrian Mannarinohome2:0
- Facundo Diaz Acostaaway2:0
- Marin Cilicaway2:0
- Adam Waltonaway2:0
- Taro Danielaway2:0
- James Duckworthhome2:0
- Mikhail Kukushkinhome2:0
- Aleksandar Kovacevichome2:1
- Daniil Medvedevaway0:2
- Taylor Harry Fritzhome2:1
Head-to-head
- 05.01.2022Stefanos Tsitsipas0:0Nikoloz BasilashviliUnited Cup
- 15.10.2021Nikoloz Basilashvili2:1Stefanos TsitsipasATP. Indian Wells
- 03.10.2019Nikoloz Basilashvili1:2Stefanos TsitsipasATP. Beijing
- 18.01.2019Stefanos Tsitsipas3:1Nikoloz BasilashviliAustralian Open
About the match
- 24 October · 06:00 New York
- Venue: Almaty Arena (Almaty), Almaty
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 04:40
A narrow market lean towards a longer match
The available market assigns Over 22.5 games a 53.1% probability against 46.9% for Under, with the line moving towards the Over during the past 24 hours. This is a modest preference, not a strong consensus. No match-winner market is supplied, so neither player can be identified as the bookmaker’s favourite here.
Set results alone cannot settle the totals question. Two close sets can clear this threshold, whereas two one-sided sets stay below it. Without individual game scores, hold rates or tie-break frequency, neither player’s recent straight-set victories establish a reliable Over/Under pattern.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Current odds
- 1.41
- Odds at prediction
- 1.38
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.38
- Potential win
- 38 $
- Status
- pending
