ATP Almaty Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane
Daniil Medvedev
Terence AtmaneDaniil Medvedev and Terence Atmane play for a semifinal place at Almaty Arena in the ATP Almaty quarterfinals. Medvedev beat Sho Shimabukuro in straight sets; Atmane needed three sets against Mattia Bellucci.
Medvedev’s current level and match profile
Form, strengths and available lineup
Medvedev has won four of his last five matches, losing only to Rafael Jodar. He won eight sets and lost two across that stretch, which included a three-set victory over Tommy Paul. His 2:0 win over Shimabukuro leaves him with one Almaty match played, two sets won and none lost.
- Straight-set wins: three of his last five victories came without dropping a set.
- Sets conceded: he dropped sets in two of his last five matches.
- Risk area: his defeat by Jodar came in straight sets.
Medvedev says the balls used during the Asian swing suit him better than those in the United States, helping his flat, deep baseline game. His singles entry has no reported injury or suspension concerns.
- Sho Shimabukurohome2:0
- Rafael Jodaraway0:2
- Tommy Paulhome2:1
- Stefanos Tsitsipashome2:0
- Dalibor Svrcinahome2:0
Atmane’s momentum and pressure points
Recent results, weapons and limitations
Atmane’s last five entries comprise three wins and two draws, leaving him unbeaten across that sequence. In Almaty, he beat Rinky Hijikata 2:0 and Bellucci 2:1 for two consecutive wins, with four sets won and one lost. The Bellucci match required more court time than Medvedev’s match on the same date.
- Scoring: Atmane scored in all five recent matches.
- Match length: three of those five matches went beyond a straight-set result.
- Sets conceded: he dropped a set in three of his last five matches overall.
No injuries, suspensions or changes to Atmane’s singles entry have been reported. His physical condition remains unconfirmed.
- Mattia Belluccihome2:1
- Rinky Hijikatahome2:0
- Bernard Tomichome1:1
- Elias Ymeraway1:1
- Enzo Aguiardhome2:0
Head-to-head record and surface context
Medvedev has won both official meetings over the last five years: 2:1 at the Australian Open in 2024 and 2:0 in Halle in June 2026. The set totals conflict: four to one and five to one are both listed in his favour.
Atmane took a set in their first meeting but none in the more recent encounter, when Medvedev contained his pace and first-strike play.
- 17.06.2026Terence Atmane0:2Daniil MedvedevATP. Halle
- 15.01.2024Terence Atmane1:2Daniil MedvedevAustralian Open
Motivation, tournament setting and available news
Atmane called his quarterfinal run a “new beginning” after the comeback against Bellucci, framing the tournament as a career reset. Medvedev is seeking another deep run in conditions he says suit his game.
There are no further medical updates or disciplinary developments.
Our Prediction
In the ATP Almaty quarterfinal, Daniil Medvedev faces Terence Atmane for a place in the semifinals. Our pick is Handicap 2 (5) at 1.39. Medvedev has performed strongly on Asian courts and won both previous meetings, while Atmane has built momentum in Almaty and can keep the score close.
Medvedev has won 4 of his last 5 matches and beat Sho Shimabukuro 2:0 in this tournament. Atmane has also won both of his Almaty matches, although he dropped a set to Bellucci in the latest one; his overall run includes 3 wins and 2 draws. Atmane called reaching the quarterfinals “a new beginning”, while Medvedev said Asian balls suit him better than conditions in the United States.
A +5 handicap for Atmane provides cover even if Medvedev wins in two sets with a narrow margin. Medvedev won the two previous meetings 2:1 and 2:0, so a five-game margin is not inevitable given the Frenchman’s current form. The likely score is 2:1 to Medvedev, with Atmane covering the handicap.
Conclusion
Handicap 2 (5) at 1.39 is the pick: Medvedev remains the favorite, but Atmane’s form in this tournament should keep the margin within five games.
FAQ
When does Daniil Medvedev — Terence Atmane kick off?
The match starts on 23.10.2026 at 05:30 (New York), Almaty Arena (Almaty).
What is the prediction for Daniil Medvedev — Terence Atmane?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (5) at 1.39.
Team form
- Sho Shimabukurohome2:0
- Rafael Jodaraway0:2
- Tommy Paulhome2:1
- Stefanos Tsitsipashome2:0
- Dalibor Svrcinahome2:0
- Mattia Belluccihome2:1
- Rinky Hijikatahome2:0
- Bernard Tomichome1:1
- Elias Ymeraway1:1
- Enzo Aguiardhome2:0
Head-to-head
- 17.06.2026Terence Atmane0:2Daniil MedvedevATP. Halle
- 15.01.2024Terence Atmane1:2Daniil MedvedevAustralian Open
About the match
- 23 October · 05:30 New York
- Venue: Almaty Arena (Almaty), Almaty
Odds
Odds updated 23.10 04:20
Market reading and game-total structure
The total-games market is close to balanced, with a slight preference for Over. Under has attracted recent support as its line moves downward. A competitive set or a deciding set remains within the market’s expectations, with neither side strongly favoured.
Medvedev’s Almaty straight-set wins are listed inconsistently as both one and two. Atmane has taken at least one set in three of his last five matches; the total hinges on whether he can extend rallies and hold serve against Medvedev’s return pressure.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (5)
- Current odds
- 1.39
- Odds at prediction
- 1.38
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 67%
- Market estimate
- 67%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.38
- Potential win
- 38 $
- Status
- pending
