ATP Almaty Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Preview
Daniil Medvedev
Nikoloz BasilashviliDaniil Medvedev and Nikoloz Basilashvili contest the ATP Almaty final at Almaty Arena on 25 October, with the title at stake. Both played on 24 October, leaving a short turnaround before the scheduled 06:00 start in America/New_York time. Medvedev’s latest result is recorded as 1:0, while Basilashvili reached the final through three sets.
Medvedev: recent wins
Form and results
Medvedev has four wins in his last five matches and three consecutive victories. The sequence includes a 2:1 win over Tommy Paul and a 0:2 loss to Rafael Jodar in Shanghai, followed by Almaty wins over Sho Shimabukuro, Terence Atmane and Alexander Bublik.
Strengths and limits of the recent record
The Shimabukuro and Atmane victories both finished 2:0, with Medvedev not dropping a set in those two matches. His four recent wins carry the home designation, while the defeat carries the away designation; these designations do not establish a tennis home-court advantage.
- Alexander Bublikhome1:0
- Terence Atmanehome2:0
- Sho Shimabukurohome2:0
- Rafael Jodaraway0:2
- Tommy Paulhome2:1
Basilashvili: a winning run from qualifying
Five victories and one dropped set
Basilashvili has won all five listed matches. He beat Adam Walton in qualifying, then Marin Cilic, Facundo Diaz Acosta and Adrian Mannarino in straight sets before defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas 2:1. That is his only recent match to require a deciding set, increasing the physical demands immediately before the final.
Workload and performance questions
His schedule runs from 18 to 24 October and includes qualifying, giving him more matches at this event. Four straight-set victories contained the earlier workload, while the semifinal added a third set on the eve of the title match. The results show success against different opponents but do not establish first-serve reliability, break-point efficiency or a specific return advantage. No ranking or surface-specific record is available.
- Stefanos Tsitsipashome2:1
- Adrian Mannarinohome2:0
- Facundo Diaz Acostaaway2:0
- Marin Cilicaway2:0
- Adam Waltonaway2:0
One previous meeting, a limited comparison
The only listed official meeting within five years took place in Vienna on 26 October 2022, when Medvedev won 2:0. That gives him the head-to-head lead, but a single match almost four years earlier offers little detail about this final. No game scores accompany it, so it cannot establish a history of short sets, tie-breaks or a particular game-total pattern. The court surface in Almaty is also unspecified, preventing a verified surface comparison.
- 26.10.2022Daniil Medvedev2:0Nikoloz BasilashviliATP. Vienna
Fitness context and the final milestone
Medvedev expressed hope that Bublik’s knee injury was not serious and that he would return quickly. This concerns his semifinal opponent, not an injury to Medvedev. Basilashvili is reported to be playing his first ATP final since May 2025. No injuries or suspensions for either finalist, coaching changes or expert assessments of this matchup are available.
Our pick for the final
Our pick is Total Under (23) 1.62. The clearest route is a straight-sets Medvedev win with a break separating the players in each set. He has not dropped a set in Almaty, making a shorter final the preferred scenario rather than relying on a deciding set staying unusually brief.
Basilashvili’s 2:1 semifinal win required a third set the day before the final; Medvedev’s latest result was recorded at 1:0. That difference in workload supports the shorter-match case, although match durations are unavailable. There are no confirmed injury updates for either finalist, and no serve percentages to justify treating comfortable service holds as certain. The main risk is a close opening set: even a straight-sets result can exceed this line if both sets remain tight. Expected score: Medvedev to win 6:4, 6:4.
Betting conclusion
Total Under (23) 1.62 is a bet on Medvedev converting his set-level advantage into a compact final. The projected score leaves room below the threshold, but a tie-break would sharply reduce that margin.
FAQ
When does Daniil Medvedev — Nikoloz Basilashvili kick off?
The match starts on 25.10.2026 at 06:00 (New York), Almaty Arena (Almaty).
What is the prediction for Daniil Medvedev — Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our pick is Total Under (23) at 1.62.
Team form
- Alexander Bublikhome1:0
- Terence Atmanehome2:0
- Sho Shimabukurohome2:0
- Rafael Jodaraway0:2
- Tommy Paulhome2:1
- Stefanos Tsitsipashome2:1
- Adrian Mannarinohome2:0
- Facundo Diaz Acostaaway2:0
- Marin Cilicaway2:0
- Adam Waltonaway2:0
Head-to-head
- 26.10.2022Daniil Medvedev2:0Nikoloz BasilashviliATP. Vienna
About the match
- 25 October · 06:00 New York
- Venue: Almaty Arena (Almaty), Almaty
Odds
Odds updated 25.10 00:10
A narrow lean in the game-total market
The market assigns Under 22.5 games a 54% probability and Over 22.5 games 46%, a modest preference for the shorter match. Both prices drifted over 24 hours, so the movement does not describe a clear shift toward either side. No match-winner market is available, and a bookmaker favourite cannot be identified from the totals alone.
Set scores cannot test that threshold directly: straight-set matches can still exceed it, while a deciding set increases the scope for a longer total. Without individual game scores, service holds or break counts, neither player’s recent winning sequence can be converted into a reliable game-total trend.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Under (23)
- Current odds
- 1.62
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 57%
- Market estimate
- 57%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.62
- Potential win
- 62 $
- Status
- pending