ATP Almaty: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Match Prediction
Daniil Medvedev
Alexander BublikDaniil Medvedev and Alexander Bublik meet at Almaty Arena on 24 October for a place in the ATP Almaty final. The semifinal starts at 09:05 America/New_York time. Medvedev has advanced without dropping a set in his two matches here; Bublik reaches the semifinal after a quarterfinal decided by two tie-breaks.
Medvedev: cleaner progress through Almaty
Recent results and tournament form
Medvedev has won four of his last five matches, with an aggregate set score of 8:3. That sequence includes victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tommy Paul in Shanghai, followed by a defeat against Rafael Jodar. In Almaty, he beat Sho Shimabukuro and Terence Atmane in straight sets. His current winning run is two matches; that short tournament sample cannot establish a longer-term trend.
Strengths, limits and court assessment
Three of those five matches ended with Medvedev conceding no sets; the Paul match showed he could also win over three. The counterweight is the straight-sets loss to Jodar: his recent record is not uniformly one-sided. Home and away labels here describe listing order, not distinct tennis conditions.
Motivation and recovery
Medvedev has expressed enthusiasm about the possibility of defending his Almaty title. His latest match was on 23 October, leaving consecutive match days before the semifinal. Winning in two sets limited his set count, although the duration and physical cost are unspecified.
- Terence Atmanehome2:0
- Sho Shimabukurohome2:0
- Rafael Jodaraway0:2
- Tommy Paulhome2:1
- Stefanos Tsitsipashome2:0
Bublik: a demanding route into the semifinal
Five-match performance
Bublik has three wins and two defeats in his last five appearances, with a combined set score of 7:6. He beat Tomas Machac and Brandon Nakashima in Shanghai, lost to Alexander Zverev, then defeated Karen Khachanov in Almaty. His only appearance at this tournament was a three-set victory; that is too little evidence to describe his overall record at the venue.
Competitive strengths and exposed margins
Three of Bublik’s last five matches went to a deciding set, and he won two of them. He conceded a set in four of the five, making his recent matches less economical than Medvedev’s. Against Khachanov, he recovered from 4:6 to take both remaining sets 7:6, winning each tie-break 7:5. Those narrow margins show how close his quarterfinal was, rather than proving a repeatable advantage on serve or return.
Workload before the next round
Bublik also played on 23 October, but his quarterfinal required 36 games. That creates a recovery concern before another match the following day.
- Karen Khachanovhome2:1
- Alexander Zverevaway1:2
- Brandon Nakashimahome2:1
- Tomas Machachome2:0
- Jakub Mensikhome0:2
Head-to-head: Medvedev leads, Bublik won the latest
Medvedev leads the three meetings 2:1. He won in Dubai in 2023 and Madrid in 2024; Bublik took their most recent encounter in Halle in June 2025. Every meeting ended in straight sets, giving Medvedev a 4:2 aggregate set advantage.
- 22.06.2025Alexander Bublik2:0Daniil MedvedevATP. Halle
- 30.04.2024Daniil Medvedev2:0Alexander BublikATP. Madrid
- 01.03.2023Daniil Medvedev2:0Alexander BublikATP. Dubai
- 10.08.2021Daniil Medvedev2:1Alexander BublikATP. Toronto
- 24.07.2021Alexander Bublik0:2Daniil MedvedevOlympic Games
Availability and outside assessment
Our pick: W1 1.49
Daniil Medvedev is the stronger side for this semifinal after winning both matches in Almaty without dropping a set. His tournament record is 4–0 in sets, with 4 sets won and none conceded, while his last five matches bring a 4–1 record and an 8:3 set balance. That level of control is particularly relevant against Alexander Bublik, whose route to the semifinal was far less efficient.
Bublik needed three sets against Karen Khachanov, including two tie-breaks after losing the opening set. Medvedev’s two previous Almaty wins were completed in straight sets, giving him a cleaner physical path. The head-to-head also favors the Russian 2–1, with both of his victories coming in straight sets, although Bublik won the latest meeting in Halle in 2025. Medvedev has also spoken positively about the prospect of defending his Almaty title, providing a clear competitive incentive. Expected score: 2–0 to Medvedev.
Conclusion
The selection is W1 1.49. Medvedev’s unbeaten, straight-set progress in Almaty, superior recent consistency and the contrast with Bublik’s exhausting quarterfinal make the home win the preferred outcome.
FAQ
When does Daniil Medvedev — Alexander Bublik kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 09:05 (New York), Almaty Arena (Almaty).
What is the prediction for Daniil Medvedev — Alexander Bublik?
Our pick is W1 at 1.49.
Team form
- Terence Atmanehome2:0
- Sho Shimabukurohome2:0
- Rafael Jodaraway0:2
- Tommy Paulhome2:1
- Stefanos Tsitsipashome2:0
- Karen Khachanovhome2:1
- Alexander Zverevaway1:2
- Brandon Nakashimahome2:1
- Tomas Machachome2:0
- Jakub Mensikhome0:2
Head-to-head
- 22.06.2025Alexander Bublik2:0Daniil MedvedevATP. Halle
- 30.04.2024Daniil Medvedev2:0Alexander BublikATP. Madrid
- 01.03.2023Daniil Medvedev2:0Alexander BublikATP. Dubai
- 10.08.2021Daniil Medvedev2:1Alexander BublikATP. Toronto
- 24.07.2021Alexander Bublik0:2Daniil MedvedevOlympic Games
About the match
- 24 October · 09:05 New York
- Venue: Almaty Arena (Almaty), Almaty
Odds
Odds updated 23.10 14:10
Game totals: an evenly divided market
The market assigns a 50% probability to both Over and Under 24.5 games, with no notable movement over the last 24 hours.
Bublik’s quarterfinal cleared this threshold comfortably, but one long match is not a reliable total-games trend. The distinction is between sets and games: a straight-sets match can exceed the line through close sets, while a three-set match need not do so.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.49
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 67%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.49
- Potential win
- 49 $
- Status
- pending
