VHL Match Prediction: Metallurg Novokuznetsk vs Khimik Voskresensk
Metallurg Novokuznetsk
Khimik VoskresenskMore picks
- Period 3: No draw 1.38 pending
Metallurg host Khimik at Kuznetsk Metallurgists Sports Palace on November 4. Seventh-placed Novokuznetsk have 27 points from 20 VHL games; tenth-placed Voskresensk have 24 from 19. A visiting win would narrow the gap with a game still in hand. The hosts trail leaders Norilsk by five points.
Metallurg: defensive base, improving attack
Recent results and recovery time
Metallurg have won three straight after two defeats, scoring 11 goals and conceding eight across their last five games. Four were away fixtures, producing three wins; the only home result was a 0:2 loss to Molot. They have five clear days between the October 29 trip to Gornyak-UGMK and this return home.
Strengths and pressure points
- Metallurg have conceded 26 goals in 20 games, averaging 1.30.
- They have scored ten goals during the winning run, against a season average of 2.05 per game.
- Four of the last five games finished below 4.5 total goals.
- The latest 4:3 win brought as many goals conceded as the previous three away games combined.
Availability and special teams
Andrey Krutov is out with an unspecified injury. The low concession rate alone does not establish the contribution of goaltending or shorthanded work.
- Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshmaaway4:3
- Chelmet Chelyabinskaway3:1
- Magnitka Magnitogorskaway3:0
- Yuzhny Uralaway1:2
- Molot Permhome0:2
Khimik: scoring travels better than defending
Form and the road sequence
Khimik ended a three-game losing run by beating Sokol 4:2 on November 2. Their last five games yielded two wins and three losses, with 17 goals scored and 14 conceded.
The route through Norilsk and Krasnoyarsk continues to Novokuznetsk for their third away game in six calendar days, with just one clear day after Sokol.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
- Khimik have scored 63 goals in 19 matches, averaging 3.32.
- They concede 2.21 goals per game this season, compared with 2.80 across the last five.
- Both teams scored in all five recent fixtures, each of which exceeded 4.5 goals.
- The two latest away games produced eight goals for Khimik and seven against.
Personnel and unconfirmed roles
Ivan Gavrilov is out with an unspecified injury.
- Sokol Krasnoyarskaway4:2
- Norilskaway4:5
- Kalugahome2:3
- AKM Tula Oblasthome2:3
- Ryazan-VDVhome5:1
Previous meetings favour the visitors
Khimik have won ten of the 15 official meetings over five years. The latest eight produced 33 goals, averaging 4.13, with four finishing above 4.5. Metallurg lost three of the four home meetings in that sequence and were shut out twice. The six spring playoff games ended in a 4:2 series victory for Khimik, separate from November's fixture.
- 10.05.2026Khimik Voskresensk4:2Metallurg NovokuznetskVHL (Play-off)
- 07.05.2026Metallurg Novokuznetsk4:3Khimik VoskresenskVHL (Play-off)
- 04.05.2026Khimik Voskresensk3:2Metallurg NovokuznetskVHL (Play-off)
- 02.05.2026Khimik Voskresensk0:2Metallurg NovokuznetskVHL (Play-off)
- 29.04.2026Metallurg Novokuznetsk0:1Khimik VoskresenskVHL (Play-off)
Coaches stress responses under pressure
Andrey Lunev praised Metallurg's preparation after the Gornyak-UGMK game; his November 2 comments highlighted character and skill in turning the contest around. For Khimik, Daniil Sobolev said conceding had jolted the team into action, while Egor Bashkatov stressed the players' sense of responsibility.
Line-ups
Metallurg Novokuznetsk
Substitutes: 20. Zakhar Vinogradov
Khimik Voskresensk
Substitutes: 1. Maxim Pavlenko
Our Forecast
Our bet is Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No 1.26. Metallurg Novokuznetsk has conceded only 26 goals in 20 VHL matches, one of the strongest defensive records in the league. That profile is especially relevant in the opening period, when the home side can prioritize structure rather than trade attacks. In its last five games, Metallurg allowed 8 goals, while Khimik conceded 14 and produced a more open pattern in every match.
The recent head-to-head record also supports a restrained start. In the spring playoff series, the first three games involving Metallurg ended 0:3, 0:1 and 2:0, with only one team scoring in each match. Khimik has scored in all five recent games, but its attack faces a defense that kept a clean sheet only once in the last five meetings listed. Metallurg’s current three-game winning run and home advantage further favor controlled hockey before the teams take greater risks. The expected score after the first period is 0:0.
Conclusion
Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No 1.26 is the recommended selection. Metallurg’s 26 goals conceded in 20 matches and the closed starts seen in recent playoff meetings point to at least one side remaining scoreless in the opening period.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshmaaway4:3
- Chelmet Chelyabinskaway3:1
- Magnitka Magnitogorskaway3:0
- Yuzhny Uralaway1:2
- Molot Permhome0:2
- Sokol Krasnoyarskaway4:2
- Norilskaway4:5
- Kalugahome2:3
- AKM Tula Oblasthome2:3
- Ryazan-VDVhome5:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Yuzhny Ural | 19 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 53:42 | 28 |
| 7 | Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 20 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 41:26 | 27 |
| 8 | Kaluga | 20 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 43:34 | 26 |
| 9 | SKA-VMF | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 48:23 | 25 |
| 10 | Khimik Voskresensk | 19 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 63:42 | 24 |
| 11 | Buran Voronezh | 18 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 39:33 | 24 |
Head-to-head
- 10.05.2026Khimik Voskresensk4:2Metallurg NovokuznetskVHL (Play-off)
- 07.05.2026Metallurg Novokuznetsk4:3Khimik VoskresenskVHL (Play-off)
- 04.05.2026Khimik Voskresensk3:2Metallurg NovokuznetskVHL (Play-off)
- 02.05.2026Khimik Voskresensk0:2Metallurg NovokuznetskVHL (Play-off)
- 29.04.2026Metallurg Novokuznetsk0:1Khimik VoskresenskVHL (Play-off)
About the match
- 4 November · 01:00 New York
- Venue: Kuznetsk Metallurgists Sports Palace (Novokuznetsk)
Odds
odds before kick-off
A modest home edge, divided goal expectations
The margin-free 1X2 probabilities are 42.4% for a Metallurg home win, 24.2% for a draw and 33.4% for a Khimik away win. The market has shown no notable movement over 24 hours.
Under 4.5 has a narrow 50.7% share, though the line is moving towards Over. BTTS (both teams to score) is also attracting support, with an implied probability of 79.4%.
Our prediction
- Market
- Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No
- Odds
- 1.26
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Market estimate
- 73%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.26
- Potential win
- 26 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.26
- Status
- pending
