Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins: NHL Match Prediction
Vegas Golden Knights
Pittsburgh PenguinsVegas Golden Knights host Pittsburgh Penguins at T-Mobile Arena on October 17. Vegas lead the Western Conference with 14 points from 9 games; Pittsburgh are 12th with 7 points.
Vegas: productive attack and a stronger home profile
Recent form and tactical balance
Vegas have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 19 goals and conceding 12—averages of 3.8 scored and 2.4 allowed per game. They scored and conceded in all five.
At home, the Golden Knights beat Toronto 4:3, Los Angeles 2:1 and Calgary 6:2. Away from Nevada, they split results against Minnesota and Nashville. Their current two-game winning run has produced 11 goals.
Roster, goalkeeping and special teams
Parker Wotherspoon is out injured. Vegas have generated goals at home, but conceding in every recent game leaves opportunities for Pittsburgh in transition.
- Calgary Flameshome6:2
- Nashville Predatorsaway5:2
- Minnesota Wildaway2:4
- Los Angeles Kingshome2:1
- Toronto Maple Leafshome4:3
Pittsburgh: scoring continuity against a fragile defensive record
Form, venue split and key weaknesses
Pittsburgh have lost 4 of their last 5, scoring 12 goals and conceding 17—averages of 2.4 scored and 3.4 allowed per game. They scored in every game but conceded at least three in 4 of the 5.
Their three away defeats were 3:5 at Washington, 2:3 at Columbus and 3:5 at Chicago. Their only victory in this sequence was a 2:1 home win over Dallas.
Absences and matchup implications
Justin Brazeau, Ryan Graves and Trevor van Riemsdyk are unavailable; Graves has a knee injury. Andrei Kuzmenko has returned after missing games. The loss of two defensemen reduces Pittsburgh’s options against Vegas’s attack.
- Colorado Avalancheaway2:5
- Chicago Blackhawksaway3:5
- Dallas Starshome2:1
- Columbus Blue Jacketsaway2:3
- Washington Capitalsaway3:5
Head-to-head pattern over the recent cycle
Across 10 official meetings in the last five years, Vegas have won 4 and Pittsburgh 6. The latest eight were split evenly, with 4 wins apiece. Vegas won the most recent meeting 6:2 at home on March 12, 2026; Pittsburgh recorded a 5:0 road win in the preceding series. Across those eight fixtures, home teams scored 44 goals and away teams 21.
Vegas won the four listed meetings at T-Mobile Arena: 5:2, 3:2, 4:0 and the latest result above. Their home record contrasts with Pittsburgh’s advantage across the full five-year period.
- 13.03.2026Vegas Golden Knights6:2Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 01.03.2026Pittsburgh Penguins5:0Vegas Golden KnightsNHL
- 11.03.2025Pittsburgh Penguins3:2Vegas Golden KnightsNHL
- 08.03.2025Vegas Golden Knights4:0Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 21.01.2024Vegas Golden Knights3:2Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
Team news and available expert context
Pittsburgh have three absentees, including two defensemen, compared with one for Vegas. The Golden Knights have scored 36 goals and conceded 22 this season.
Our Prediction
Our pick is W1 at 1.8. Vegas Golden Knights enter the game with four wins in their last five matches, 19 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their attack has produced at least four goals in three of those victories, while the team leads the Western Conference with 14 points from nine games. The home setting adds weight: Vegas have won all three listed home games in this run, scoring 12 times.
Pittsburgh Penguins have lost four of their last five, allowing 17 goals and conceding at least three in four matches. Their defensive depth is reduced by the absences of Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Justin Brazeau; according to media reports, Andrei Kuzmenko has returned to the lineup. Vegas are missing Parker Wotherspoon, but the injury impact is smaller. The market assigns the hosts a 54.8% win probability, and the home line is shortening. A 4:2 win for Vegas is the projected score.
Conclusion
W1 1.8 is the selection. Vegas combine superior recent results, a 36-goal season total and home-ice advantage with a Pittsburgh defense weakened by three absences.
FAQ
When does Vegas Golden Knights — Pittsburgh Penguins kick off?
The match starts on 17.10.2026 at 22:00 (New York), T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas).
What is the prediction for Vegas Golden Knights — Pittsburgh Penguins?
Our pick is W1 at 1.8.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Vegas Golden Knights win — 53%, draw — 21%, Pittsburgh Penguins win — 27%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Calgary Flameshome6:2
- Nashville Predatorsaway5:2
- Minnesota Wildaway2:4
- Los Angeles Kingshome2:1
- Toronto Maple Leafshome4:3
- Colorado Avalancheaway2:5
- Chicago Blackhawksaway3:5
- Dallas Starshome2:1
- Columbus Blue Jacketsaway2:3
- Washington Capitalsaway3:5
Standings · Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegas Golden Knights | 9 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 36:22 | 14 |
| 2 | Utah Mammoth | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 31:21 | 12 |
Head-to-head
- 13.03.2026Vegas Golden Knights6:2Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 01.03.2026Pittsburgh Penguins5:0Vegas Golden KnightsNHL
- 11.03.2025Pittsburgh Penguins3:2Vegas Golden KnightsNHL
- 08.03.2025Vegas Golden Knights4:0Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 21.01.2024Vegas Golden Knights3:2Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
About the match
- 17 October · 22:00 New York
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
Odds
Odds updated 17.10 12:10
Market reading and goal-line direction
The 1X2 market assigns Vegas a 54.8% probability of a home win, Pittsburgh 25.6% for an away win and the regulation draw 19.5%. The home-win line is moving toward Vegas, while the away-win and draw lines are moving away from those outcomes. Vegas are favorites, but their probability remains below 55%.
Under 6.5 has a 54.3% market probability, against 45.7% for Over 6.5. Movement has shifted against the Under’s initial support. BTTS (both teams to score) carries an 87.7% probability, although “Yes” is also drifting.
The recent scoring records favor BTTS over backing either team to keep a shutout; the head-to-head shutouts remain the counterargument.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.8
- Odds at prediction
- 1.73
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 55%
- Market estimate
- 53%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.73
- Potential win
- 73 $
- Status
- pending
