NHL Prediction: Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Utah Mammoth
Tampa Bay LightningMatch result
Utah Mammoth 5:4 Tampa Bay Lightning (2:3, 2:1, 0:0, 1:0)
The NHL game between Utah Mammoth and Tampa Bay Lightning ended in a score of 5:4, with period scores of 2:3, 2:1, 0:0, and 1:0. A total of nine goals were scored in this match, which means our prediction of Total Over (6) was successful and the bet won.
Our prediction: Total Over (6) at 1.84 — the bet won.
Utah Mammoth host Tampa Bay Lightning at Delta Center in a Central Division game between clubs on 14 points. Utah lead the division on goal difference, while Tampa are fourth, making the result relevant to the early-season standings. Utah bring the stronger home attack; Tampa have the better overall defensive record.
Utah Mammoth: scoring power with defensive exposure
Utah have won three of their last five, scoring 19 goals and conceding 21. They beat Toronto, Edmonton and Pittsburgh but lost at home to Edmonton and away at Seattle in their latest game. Utah scored and conceded in all five matches. Their tournament averages are 3.73 goals for and 3.27 against. At home, they have won three of four, scoring 18 and conceding 14.
Structure, strengths and available personnel
- Attack: totals above 2.5 goals landed in all 11 tournament matches.
- Home production: 18 goals in four games gives Utah a 4.5-goal attacking average at Delta Center.
- Defensive weakness: Utah have kept one clean sheet in 11 matches and conceded 36 goals overall.
- Game pattern: both teams scored in 10 of 11 tournament games, and every recent match featured goals at both ends.
Defenseman Maverik Lamoureux is out until March 2027 with a shoulder injury. Forward Michael Carcone is on the injured list with an upper-body injury, while defenseman John Marino did not play on October 19 due to an upper-body problem; his return timetable is unspecified. Mikhail Sergachev recorded two assists against Seattle and remains a key puck-moving option from the blue line. No confirmed starting goaltender, save percentage, power-play rate or penalty-kill rate is provided.
- Seattle Krakenaway3:5
- Pittsburgh Penguinshome5:4
- Edmonton Oilershome2:6
- Edmonton Oilersaway4:2
- Toronto Maple Leafshome5:4
Tampa Bay Lightning: deeper recent run and better resistance
Tampa have won four of their last five, including their latest away game against Vegas. They scored 20 goals and conceded 14 in that span, scoring in every match and carrying a three-game winning run. Their only defeat was at the New York Rangers. Season figures are 32 goals for and 23 against in 10 games, or 3.2 and 2.3 per match. Away from home, Tampa have split four games, scoring 13 and conceding 14.
How the Lightning can attack the matchup
Tampa average 3.2 goals per tournament game and recently scored five against the Islanders and six against Vegas. Both teams scored in nine of their 10 tournament games, while totals above 2.5 landed in nine. Tampa concede 2.3 goals per game compared with Utah’s 3.27, but their 14 goals allowed in four away games leave room for an open contest. Nikita Kucherov produced a goal and two assists against Vegas. No Tampa injuries, suspensions, confirmed lineup, starting goaltender or save-percentage figures are listed.
- Colorado Avalancheaway3:6
- Vegas Golden Knightsaway6:2
- Vancouver Canuckshome4:2
- Seattle Krakenhome4:3
- New York Rangersaway1:4
Head-to-head record favors Tampa
The clubs have met four times over the last five years. Utah won once and Tampa won three times, including the last two meetings.
The series has produced contrasting results: Utah won a high-scoring home game, while Tampa later won 8:0 and also kept Utah scoreless in the latest meeting. Tampa hold the head-to-head edge, although Utah are averaging 4.5 goals per home game this season.
- 27.01.2026Tampa Bay Lightning2:0Utah MammothNHL
- 02.11.2025Utah Mammoth2:4Tampa Bay LightningNHL
- 27.03.2025Tampa Bay Lightning8:0Utah MammothNHL
- 22.03.2025Utah Mammoth6:4Tampa Bay LightningNHL
Available news before the faceoff
Utah’s defensive rotation is the main confirmed concern. Lamoureux is out long term, Marino’s status is unresolved and Carcone is unavailable.
Tampa’s latest news concerns performance rather than injuries: Kucherov’s three-point game against Vegas highlights the visitors’ attacking form. No expert opinion, suspension information or further confirmed lineup changes is provided.
Line-ups
Utah Mammoth
Substitutes: 33. Sebastian Cossa
Coach: Andre Tourigny
Tampa Bay Lightning
Substitutes: 88. Andrei Vasilevsky
Coach: Jon Cooper
Our Pick: Total Over (6)
Our bet is Total Over (6) at 1.84. Utah Mammoth average 3.73 goals scored and 3.27 conceded per game this season, while Tampa Bay Lightning post 3.2 and 2.3 respectively. Both teams have scored in 10 of Utah’s 11 league matches and 9 of Tampa’s 10 league matches, and Utah have exceeded 2.5 total goals in all 11 games. Their recent defensive profile is especially relevant: Utah conceded 21 goals across the last five matches, while Tampa allowed 14 and scored 20.
The confirmed absences weaken Utah’s defensive rotation: Maverick Lamoureux is out long term, Michael Carcone is unavailable, and John Marino’s return remains unclear. Tampa arrive after scoring six against Vegas, with Nikita Kucherov contributing three points. A projected score is Utah Mammoth 4:3 Tampa Bay Lightning.
Conclusion
Total Over (6) is the selection. The teams combine frequent scoring with regular defensive concessions, and Utah’s reduced defensive depth increases the chance that the game reaches seven goals.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Seattle Krakenaway3:5
- Pittsburgh Penguinshome5:4
- Edmonton Oilershome2:6
- Edmonton Oilersaway4:2
- Toronto Maple Leafshome5:4
- Colorado Avalancheaway3:6
- Vegas Golden Knightsaway6:2
- Vancouver Canuckshome4:2
- Seattle Krakenhome4:3
- New York Rangersaway1:4
Standings · Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vegas Golden Knights | 13 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 47:38 | 17 |
| 3 | Utah Mammoth | 12 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 46:40 | 16 |
| 4 | Minnesota Wild | 12 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 37:28 | 16 |
Head-to-head
- 27.01.2026Tampa Bay Lightning2:0Utah MammothNHL
- 02.11.2025Utah Mammoth2:4Tampa Bay LightningNHL
- 27.03.2025Tampa Bay Lightning8:0Utah MammothNHL
- 22.03.2025Utah Mammoth6:4Tampa Bay LightningNHL
About the match
- 24 October · 21:00 New York
- Venue: Delta Center (Salt Lake City)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and goal-line balance
The market makes Utah the narrower favorite, assigning a 44.5% probability to a home win, 33.3% to an away win and 22.3% to a draw. The home line shortened during the last day, while the draw and away lines moved outward. The market therefore supports Utah despite Tampa’s better recent record and stronger season defensive average.
The main total is nearly even: Over 6 carries 50.8% and strengthened slightly, while Under 6 stands at 49.2% and weakened. BTTS Yes is the clearest market signal at 88.6%, with the line moving toward that outcome. Utah conceded in every recent game, Tampa did the same, and both teams scored in 19 of their 21 combined tournament matches.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Over (6)
- Odds
- 1.84
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 51%
- Market estimate
- 54%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.84
- Potential win
- 84 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.73
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +84 $
