NHL Forecast: Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
New York RangersMatch result
Toronto Maple Leafs 5:4 New York Rangers (2:1, 2:2, 1:1)
In the NHL match between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Rangers, the home team won with a score of 5:4. The period results were 2:1, 2:2, and 1:1. The Toronto Maple Leafs secured the final victory, which means that our prediction of a 2X bet lost.
Our prediction: 2X at 1.54 — the bet lost.
Toronto Maple Leafs host New York Rangers at Scotiabank Arena on 22 October in an Eastern Conference game between teams separated by three points. Rangers occupy third place with fifteen points from eleven games, while Toronto are seventh with twelve points from the same number of matches. The hosts arrive after two wins, but their defensive absences are central before the opening faceoff.
Toronto: attack recovering, defence depleted
Recent form and home profile
Toronto have won two of their last five games and lost three, scoring eighteen goals and conceding seventeen. They found the net in all five matches and allowed a goal in each one. After three defeats, wins over San Jose and Columbus produced nine goals, including six in the latest game. At home, the Leafs lost to Buffalo and the New York Islanders before beating San Jose, scoring eight and conceding ten across those three fixtures.
Strengths, weaknesses and available players
- Scoring consistency: Toronto have scored in five successive games.
- Open defensive profile: seventeen goals conceded in the same period, with no shutout.
- Recent transition threat: the last two wins brought nine goals, including six on the road.
- Defensive absences: John Tavares, Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev are unavailable.
William Nylander missed the morning skate because of illness but played against San Jose. Tavares is out with a lower-body injury, McCabe will not return after a facial injury, and Tanev is sidelined for several weeks with an upper-body injury, according to media reports.
- Columbus Blue Jacketsaway6:2
- San Jose Sharkshome3:1
- New York Islandershome1:4
- Buffalo Sabreshome4:5
- Utah Mammothaway4:5
New York: higher table position, uneven road results
Form over the latest stretch
New York have three wins and two defeats in their last five, with sixteen goals scored and thirteen conceded. Their home results were strong against Vancouver, Tampa Bay and Anaheim, producing fifteen goals and conceding five. Away from Madison Square Garden, the Rangers lost 1:7 to New Jersey and 0:1 to Columbus. They scored in four of their five latest games and conceded in all five.
Roster situation and tactical balance
The Rangers have lost Igor Shesterkin for the rest of the season because of injury, according to media reports. That changes the goaltending baseline against a Toronto side that has scored eighteen times in five matches. Luke Glendening signed a professional tryout contract on Monday.
New York’s main statistical advantage is their conference position: fifteen points and thirty-three goals from eleven games, compared with Toronto’s twelve points and thirty-eight goals. Toronto score more in total but have also conceded thirty-five, eleven more than the Rangers.
- Anaheim Duckshome5:2
- Columbus Blue Jacketsaway0:1
- New Jersey Devilsaway1:7
- Tampa Bay Lightninghome4:1
- Vancouver Canuckshome6:2
Head-to-head record favours Toronto
Across fourteen official meetings in the last five years, Toronto have nine wins and New York five, with no draws. The Leafs have won five of the last eight listed encounters.
The latest meeting, on 25 March 2026 in Toronto, ended 4:3 for the hosts. The recent series contains several high-scoring results, but the Rangers’ latest five-game form sample also includes a 0:1 defeat, so the total-goal pattern is not uniform.
- 25.03.2026Toronto Maple Leafs4:3New York RangersNHL
- 06.03.2026New York Rangers6:2Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 16.10.2025Toronto Maple Leafs2:1New York RangersNHL
- 20.03.2025New York Rangers3:4Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 01.03.2025New York Rangers2:3Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
Team news shaping the matchup
Toronto’s latest win in Columbus was accompanied by Kirill Marchenko’s comments after the team’s 6:2 success. The defensive absences matter more: McCabe left that game with a facial injury, while Tanev is expected to miss several weeks. Tavares is also unavailable, with a week-to-week recovery timeline.
For New York, the season-ending injury to Shesterkin is the decisive roster development before this game.
Line-ups
Toronto Maple Leafs
Substitutes: 41. Anthony Stolarz
Coach: Jim Hiller
New York Rangers
Substitutes: 41. Spencer Martin
Coach: Mike Sullivan
Our Pick: 2X
Our bet is 2X 1.54, covering a New York Rangers win or a draw against Toronto. The Rangers are third in the Eastern Conference with 15 points from 11 games; Toronto are seventh with 12. New York have won three of their last five games, scoring 16 goals. Toronto have won their last two but are 2-3 over their last five, conceding in every game and allowing 17 goals.
Toronto are without defensemen Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev, while John Tavares is unavailable in attack. New York have lost Igor Shesterkin to a season-ending injury. Despite that absence, the Rangers have the stronger recent record.
The away win has a 40% probability, compared with 37.5% for the home win, and market support for the Rangers has increased. Toronto lead the five-year head-to-head record 9-5. Expected score: 3:3.
Conclusion
2X 1.54 is the selection: New York’s recent scoring and Toronto’s depleted defense favor covering the Rangers win or draw rather than backing a home win.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Columbus Blue Jacketsaway6:2
- San Jose Sharkshome3:1
- New York Islandershome1:4
- Buffalo Sabreshome4:5
- Utah Mammothaway4:5
- Anaheim Duckshome5:2
- Columbus Blue Jacketsaway0:1
- New Jersey Devilsaway1:7
- Tampa Bay Lightninghome4:1
- Vancouver Canuckshome6:2
Standings · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boston Bruins | 11 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 42:22 | 17 |
| 3 | New York Rangers | 12 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 37:29 | 15 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 9 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 31:23 | 14 |
| 5 | Ottawa Senators | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 31:30 | 14 |
| 6 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 12 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 43:39 | 14 |
| 7 | New Jersey Devils | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 33:31 | 12 |
Head-to-head
- 25.03.2026Toronto Maple Leafs4:3New York RangersNHL
- 06.03.2026New York Rangers6:2Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 16.10.2025Toronto Maple Leafs2:1New York RangersNHL
- 20.03.2025New York Rangers3:4Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 01.03.2025New York Rangers2:3Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
About the match
- 22 October · 19:00 New York
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market reading and goal expectation
The 1X2 market makes New York a narrow favourite at 40% implied probability, ahead of Toronto at 37.5%, while the draw stands at 22.5%. The away-win line has shortened and the home-win line has drifted, showing stronger recent market support for the Rangers despite their two away defeats in the latest sample.
The total-goals market is almost balanced: Over 6 is assessed at 50.8% and Under 6 at 49.2%. The line is moving slightly toward the lower-total side. BTTS remains the dominant market view at 84.3%, although that price has drifted. The recent scoring records support a goal from each attack, while Toronto’s defensive absences increase game volatility.
Our prediction
- Market
- 2X
- Odds
- 1.54
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.54
- Potential win
- 54 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.58
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $
