NHL Match Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders
Toronto Maple Leafs
New York IslandersToronto host the New York Islanders at Scotiabank Arena on October 17 at 19:00. The Maple Leafs are 10th with eight points from eight games; the Islanders are 11th with seven from seven.
Toronto: scoring is not the main problem
Recent form and venue splits
The Maple Leafs have two wins and three defeats in their last five games. At home, they lost 2–3 to Ottawa and beat Nashville 5–4. They ended the trip with a 4–5 defeat at Utah.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
Their season totals stand at 28 scored and 28 conceded through eight games.
Absences and lineup questions
Chris Tanev is out and listed week to week, reducing Toronto's defensive options. Dakota Joshua, Max Domi and Miles Wood are also unavailable, with Wood on injured reserve because of an unspecified injury.
- Buffalo Sabreshome4:5
- Utah Mammothaway4:5
- Colorado Avalancheaway6:3
- Vegas Golden Knightsaway3:4
- Nashville Predatorshome5:4
Islanders: stronger results, uneven resistance
Three wins from the last five
New York have won three of five. Their latest result was a 3–2 home win over Vancouver. Their two away games in that sequence produced a 6–0 victory at New Jersey and a 2–5 loss to the Rangers.
Where the balance differs
They scored in all five matches. Their season totals of 20 goals for and 17 against in seven games show a tighter defensive balance than Toronto's.
Two confirmed absentees
Mathew Barzal and Alexander Romanov will miss the game with knee injuries, removing options at forward and on defence. Replacements, line combinations, the starting goaltender, save percentage and special-teams conversion rates remain unconfirmed; neither a goaltending edge nor a power-play advantage is established.
- Ottawa Senatorsaway1:2
- Vancouver Canuckshome3:2
- Tampa Bay Lightninghome3:5
- Chicago Blackhawkshome4:1
- New York Rangersaway2:5
The longer matchup favours New York
The Islanders have won nine of the 15 meetings over the last five years, against Toronto's six. New York lead five wins to three in the latest eight, which produced 47 combined goals at an average of 5.875. Only three exceeded 5.5 goals, with the average lifted by a few high-scoring meetings. Toronto won the most recent encounter 2–1 on September 30.
- 30.09.2026Toronto Maple Leafs2:1New York IslandersNHL
- 09.04.2026New York Islanders5:3Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 17.03.2026Toronto Maple Leafs1:3New York IslandersNHL
- 04.01.2026New York Islanders4:3Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 03.01.2025New York Islanders1:2Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
Coaching response and recovery time
Toronto coach Jim Hiller addressed Tanev's absence: “We have other good players. We just need to help them.” Both teams last played on October 13, leaving three clear days before this fixture. Toronto return from three away games, while the Islanders travel after three at home; neither faces a back-to-back. There are no separate expert opinions.
Our pick: goals over the result
Our bet is Total Over (5) 1.43. Toronto’s eight league games have produced 56 goals, an average of 7.0 per game. That leaves room above this line without requiring either side to reproduce its highest-scoring performance. Each team’s last five games has reached at least five goals, although that distinction matters: exactly five returns the stake rather than winning the bet.
Chris Tanev and Alexander Romanov are unavailable through injury, weakening both defensive groups. The attacking absences, including Mathew Barzal and Max Domi, temper expectations, so this is not a call for an unrestricted shootout. Toronto have nevertheless conceded at least three goals in every one of their last five games, making a modest Islanders contribution enough if the hosts maintain their scoring output. A possible score is 4–2.
The betting verdict
Total Over (5) 1.43 is the selection: six goals are needed for a winning bet, with a refund at five. The case rests on Toronto’s high-event games and depleted defensive personnel, rather than confidence in either team to win.
FAQ
When does Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Islanders kick off?
The match starts on 17.10.2026 at 19:00 (New York), Scotiabank Arena (Toronto).
What is the prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Islanders?
Our pick is Total Over (5) at 1.43.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Toronto Maple Leafs win — 42%, draw — 23%, New York Islanders win — 35%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Buffalo Sabreshome4:5
- Utah Mammothaway4:5
- Colorado Avalancheaway6:3
- Vegas Golden Knightsaway3:4
- Nashville Predatorshome5:4
- Ottawa Senatorsaway1:2
- Vancouver Canuckshome3:2
- Tampa Bay Lightninghome3:5
- Chicago Blackhawkshome4:1
- New York Rangersaway2:5
Standings · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | New Jersey Devils | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 23:23 | 8 |
| 10 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 28:28 | 8 |
| 11 | New York Islanders | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20:17 | 7 |
| 12 | Montreal Canadiens | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23:27 | 7 |
Head-to-head
- 30.09.2026Toronto Maple Leafs2:1New York IslandersNHL
- 09.04.2026New York Islanders5:3Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 17.03.2026Toronto Maple Leafs1:3New York IslandersNHL
- 04.01.2026New York Islanders4:3Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 03.01.2025New York Islanders1:2Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
About the match
- 17 October · 19:00 New York
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
Odds
Odds updated 17.10 18:50
Toronto lead a cautious regulation market
The 1X2 market gives Toronto a 44.5% probability of a regulation win, New York 34.5% and the draw 21%. Over the last 24 hours, the line has moved towards the hosts and away from the visitors, though Toronto remain below half.
Over 5.5 goals has a 56% market probability, despite movement towards Under. BTTS (both teams to score) stands at 87.4%, but its line has also weakened: the market is more confident in both teams scoring than in the total exceeding the threshold.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Over (5)
- Current odds
- 1.43
- Odds at prediction
- 1.4
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 65%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.4
- Potential win
- 40 $
- Status
- pending
