Pittsburgh Penguins vs Nashville Predators Prediction: NHL Match Analysis
Pittsburgh Penguins
Nashville PredatorsMatch result
Pittsburgh Penguins 3:2 Nashville Predators (0:1, 1:1, 1:0, 1:0)
In the NHL, the match between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Nashville Predators finished with a final score of 3:2. The period breakdown was 0:1, 1:1, 1:0, and 1:0. Based on these events, the recommended bet on Total Over (6) lost.
Our prediction: Total Over (6) at 1.82 — the bet lost.
Pittsburgh Penguins host Nashville Predators at PPG Paints Arena with both teams on nine points in their respective conference standings. Pittsburgh are fourteenth in the Eastern Conference after eleven games, while Nashville are seventh. The Penguins need points to prevent the gap to the leading group from widening.
Pittsburgh’s home reset and depleted lineup
Recent form and tactical profile
Pittsburgh have won once in their last five games, losing four. They allowed five goals to Chicago, five to Colorado, six to Vegas and five to Utah. The latest 4:0 home win over Florida showed a stronger defensive level. They scored in all five games but conceded in four, making their attack more reliable than their defense.
- Scored in five straight games.
- Allowed five goals in the second and six in the third game of the recent road run.
- Home advantage produced a clean sheet against Florida after four consecutive away defeats.
Personnel and expected structure
Pittsburgh’s forward depth is under pressure. Bryan Rust is out for at least six weeks, Evgeni Malkin missed training because of illness, and Yegor Chinakhov is unavailable with a lower-body injury. Ben Kindl will not play after being hospitalized during travel. The blue line is also short: Sam Girard, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Ryan Graves are listed out, while Ilya Solovyov was called up from the farm team.
- Florida Panthershome4:0
- Utah Mammothaway4:5
- Vegas Golden Knightsaway2:6
- Colorado Avalancheaway2:5
- Chicago Blackhawksaway3:5
Nashville’s unstable attack and road concerns
Five-game trend
Nashville also have one win and four defeats in their last five. They scored in four games before producing nothing in the 6:0 loss at Boston. Their other road result was a 2:3 defeat in Ottawa. At home, they beat St. Louis 5:2 but lost to Vegas and San Jose. The latest shutout highlights the risk of a slow start away from home.
- Conceded in all five recent games and allowed 19 goals overall.
- Scored five against St. Louis but managed two or fewer in three of the other four matches.
- The last away game ended 0:6, leaving the attack without a goal before this trip.
- Nashville’s goaltending save percentage is unavailable, so no numerical edge can be assigned between the crease units.
Roster news and special teams context
Mavrik Bourque has returned after an upper-body injury and is available. Vitaly Pinchuk was not in the lineup against Boston and was moved to the thirteenth-forward role. No other Nashville injuries, suspensions, confirmed lines or special-teams combinations are supplied. That prevents a precise assessment of the power play and penalty kill: recent goal totals show defensive instability, but not whether it came at even strength or shorthanded.
- Boston Bruinsaway0:6
- St. Louis Blueshome5:2
- San Jose Sharkshome2:3
- Vegas Golden Knightshome2:5
- Ottawa Senatorsaway2:3
Head-to-head record favors the hosts
Pittsburgh have won seven of the ten official meetings over the last five years, with Nashville winning three and no drawn results. Across the eight listed encounters, the Penguins scored 24 goals and conceded 14. The recent series includes Pittsburgh wins by 3:0 and 4:0 at home, although Nashville also won 2:1 in the penultimate meeting. The latest matchup at Pittsburgh ended 4:0 for the Penguins, and the broader record shows a recurring home advantage.
The head-to-head goal average is lower than the teams’ recent defensive numbers suggest: Pittsburgh scored four or more in three of the last eight meetings, while Nashville were held to two or fewer in six. That pattern is relevant to totals, while the current five-game form is more open for Pittsburgh and more volatile for Nashville.
- 16.11.2025Pittsburgh Penguins4:0Nashville PredatorsNHL
- 14.11.2025Nashville Predators2:1Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 02.02.2025Pittsburgh Penguins3:0Nashville PredatorsNHL
- 20.12.2024Nashville Predators4:5Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 15.04.2024Pittsburgh Penguins4:2Nashville PredatorsNHL
Team news before the opening faceoff
Pittsburgh will be without Rust, Girard, van Riemsdyk and Graves, while Malkin and Chinakhov are also unavailable after missing training. Multiple forward absences can reduce finishing depth and force heavier minutes for the remaining top-six players; the defensive injuries may be more significant against Nashville’s transition chances.
Bourque is ready to return for Nashville, while Pinchuk was not selected for the Boston game and remains outside the regular forward group. No additional confirmed lineup information is available. The game falls only two days after both teams’ previous fixtures, making recovery and travel relevant, particularly after Nashville’s trip to Boston and Pittsburgh’s recent road sequence followed by the Florida home performance.
Line-ups
Pittsburgh Penguins
Substitutes: 1. Sergey Murashov
Coach: Dan Muse
Nashville Predators
Substitutes: 29. Justus Annunen
Coach: Andrew Brunette
Our pick for the game
Pittsburgh Penguins — Nashville Predators is a strong spot for Total Over (6) 1.82. Pittsburgh conceded five or more goals in four of their last five games, allowing 5, 5, 6 and 5. The 4:0 win over Florida improved their latest result but did not remove the defensive problems shown during the preceding road stretch.
Nashville conceded six goals to Boston in their latest game and have allowed goals in all five of their recent matches. Pittsburgh have scored in each of their last five. The hosts will be without Brian Rust, Sam Girard, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Ryan Graves; Evgeni Malkin and Yegor Chinakhov are also unavailable after missing training, according to media reports. These absences reduce Pittsburgh’s forward depth and weaken defensive rotation. Nashville’s Mavrik Bourque is ready to return, while Vitaly Pinchuk was not selected for the Boston game, according to media reports.
The listed head-to-head results include 24 goals by Pittsburgh and 14 conceded. A 4:3 Pittsburgh win clears the line.
Conclusion
Total Over (6) 1.82 is the recommended play. Pittsburgh conceded five or more goals in four of their last five games, Nashville allowed goals in five straight, and the teams’ recent meetings provide relevant context.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Florida Panthershome4:0
- Utah Mammothaway4:5
- Vegas Golden Knightsaway2:6
- Colorado Avalancheaway2:5
- Chicago Blackhawksaway3:5
- Boston Bruinsaway0:6
- St. Louis Blueshome5:2
- San Jose Sharkshome2:3
- Vegas Golden Knightshome2:5
- Ottawa Senatorsaway2:3
Standings · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Detroit Red Wings | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 29:34 | 11 |
| 14 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 12 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 40:40 | 11 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Flyers | 13 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 24:42 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 16.11.2025Pittsburgh Penguins4:0Nashville PredatorsNHL
- 14.11.2025Nashville Predators2:1Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 02.02.2025Pittsburgh Penguins3:0Nashville PredatorsNHL
- 20.12.2024Nashville Predators4:5Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 15.04.2024Pittsburgh Penguins4:2Nashville PredatorsNHL
About the match
- 24 October · 19:00 New York
- Venue: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and goal-line balance
In the 1X2 market, Pittsburgh are the favorite with an assessed probability of 44.2%, compared with 33.5% for Nashville and 22.3% for a draw after regulation. The home price has shortened over the last day, while the Nashville line has moved the other way. The market gives Pittsburgh a clear but limited edge rather than treating the matchup as one-sided.
The goal line is almost balanced: Over 6 carries 51.3% and Under 6 carries 48.7%. The Under side is receiving stronger line movement despite the marginally higher Over probability. BTTS is assessed at 87.7%, but that market has weakened during the last day. The 1X2 margin is 5.4%, so the raw probabilities represent market estimates rather than direct fair prices.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Over (6)
- Odds
- 1.82
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 51%
- Market estimate
- 52%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.82
- Potential win
- 82 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.81
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $
