NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers Match Preview
Ottawa Senators
New York RangersOttawa Senators host New York Rangers at Canadian Tire Centre on 24 October in a game with direct standings value. Ottawa sit third in the Atlantic Division on 14 points, three behind Boston, while New York have 15 points and are also chasing the leading group. Both teams enter with the same record across their last five games, but both have conceded in every one of them.
Ottawa: home scoring with a weakened crease
Recent form and home pattern
Ottawa have won two of their last five and lost three. Their home results in that sequence are sharply divided: victories over the Islanders and Panthers contrast with losses to St. Louis and San Jose. Ottawa scored in all five games, but conceded at least one in each, including six against San Jose in the latest outing. The schedule is dense: the Senators played on 21 and 22 October and now face another game on 24 October, all at home, so travel is limited but recovery time is short.
Where the matchup turns
- Attack: goals in five straight games, with five against Florida but only two in each of the losses to St. Louis and San Jose.
- Defence: 30 goals conceded in 11 league games.
- Blue line: Jake Sanderson returned after missing eight games and recorded two assists against Florida.
Linus Ullmark was placed on injured reserve on 23 October, and Jonas Johansson was called up from the AHL. Thomas Chabot is out for one to two weeks with an upper-body injury, while William Eklund remains out long term with an ankle injury. Ottawa’s likely structure therefore depends more heavily on Sanderson’s puck movement.
- San Jose Sharkshome2:6
- Florida Panthershome5:1
- Philadelphia Flyersaway1:3
- New York Islandershome2:1
- St. Louis Blueshome2:7
New York: volatile results and an emergency goaltending plan
Form, attack and defensive risk
The Rangers also have two wins and three defeats in their last five. They beat Tampa Bay and Anaheim at home, scoring four and five, yet lost both road games to New Jersey and Columbus without scoring more than one. The latest road defeat at Toronto ended 4:5, showing that the Rangers can produce offensively away from Madison Square Garden but are vulnerable when the game opens up. They have conceded in all five recent matches and scored in four.
Personnel and workload
Igor Shesterkin is injured, and backup Joonas Korpisalo is also unavailable for at least four weeks. The next games in goal are expected to be handled by 24-year-old Dylan Garand. His save percentage is not supplied, so the effect of the change cannot be reduced to a numerical estimate. Luke Glendening was signed on 23 October; his arrival adds experience and depth, but no confirmed line assignment is given. No suspension is listed, and no power-play or penalty-kill rates are available. New York played on 22 October in Toronto and now travels to Ottawa, giving the Senators the shorter journey before this game, while both sides face limited rest.
- Toronto Maple Leafsaway4:5
- Anaheim Duckshome5:2
- Columbus Blue Jacketsaway0:1
- New Jersey Devilsaway1:7
- Tampa Bay Lightninghome4:1
Head-to-head record points to a changing balance
Across 14 official meetings in the last five years, Ottawa have six wins and New York eight. The recent sequence is more favourable to the Senators: they won three of the last four meetings, including an 8:4 away victory and a 2:1 result in March 2026. The eight listed recent games produced 42 Ottawa goals and 30 for New York, an average of nine goals per game, although that figure is lifted by several unusually open contests.
Five of those eight meetings cleared five total goals, while three finished below that mark. Both teams scored in six of the eight listed games. The head-to-head record therefore supports a high-event matchup more strongly than a low-scoring projection, but the goaltending changes make older meetings less transferable to this game.
- 23.03.2026New York Rangers1:2Ottawa SenatorsNHL
- 15.01.2026New York Rangers4:8Ottawa SenatorsNHL
- 05.12.2025Ottawa Senators2:4New York RangersNHL
- 08.03.2025Ottawa Senators4:3New York RangersNHL
- 22.01.2025New York Rangers5:0Ottawa SenatorsNHL
Roster news before the opening faceoff
According to media reports, Ottawa’s main immediate issue is in goal: Ullmark is unavailable, Johansson has been summoned, and Chabot will miss further games. Sanderson’s return partly offsets the defensive absence after his two-assist performance against Florida. Eklund’s long-term injury continues to reduce forward depth.
According to media reports, the Rangers are without both Shesterkin and Korpisalo, leaving Garand as the expected netminder. The Glendening signing supplies an additional experienced forward, but there is no confirmed information on how quickly he will enter the lineup. No further injury, suspension or confirmed starting lineup is stated in the available facts.
Bet: Total Over (5)
Our pick is Total Over (5) at 1.48. The decisive factor is the situation in both creases. Ottawa have placed Linus Ullmark on injured reserve and called up Jonas Johansson from the AHL, while New York are without Igor Shesterkin and backup goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. The Rangers will rely on Dylan Garand, leaving both teams with inexperienced or reserve options in goal.
Recent results support an open game. Ottawa's last five matches included games against St. Louis and San Jose, while New York's recent results also indicate defensive concerns. Both teams scored in five of Ottawa’s last five matches and in four of New York’s last five. The recent head-to-head series also included Ottawa's 4:3 win, their 8:4 victory and the latest meeting. A reasonable projected score is 4:3 to Ottawa.
Conclusion
Total Over (5) at 1.48 is the selection. The emergency goaltending situations on both sides create enough defensive risk for at least 6 total goals, with the push line at exactly 5 offering additional protection.
FAQ
When does Ottawa Senators — New York Rangers kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 19:00 (New York), Canadian Tire Centre (Ottawa).
What is the prediction for Ottawa Senators — New York Rangers?
Our pick is Total Over (5) at 1.48.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Ottawa Senators win — 41%, draw — 23%, New York Rangers win — 36%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- San Jose Sharkshome2:6
- Florida Panthershome5:1
- Philadelphia Flyersaway1:3
- New York Islandershome2:1
- St. Louis Blueshome2:7
- Toronto Maple Leafsaway4:5
- Anaheim Duckshome5:2
- Columbus Blue Jacketsaway0:1
- New Jersey Devilsaway1:7
- Tampa Bay Lightninghome4:1
Standings · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boston Bruins | 11 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 42:22 | 17 |
| 3 | New York Rangers | 12 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 37:29 | 15 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 9 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 31:23 | 14 |
| 5 | Ottawa Senators | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 31:30 | 14 |
| 6 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 12 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 43:39 | 14 |
Head-to-head
- 23.03.2026New York Rangers1:2Ottawa SenatorsNHL
- 15.01.2026New York Rangers4:8Ottawa SenatorsNHL
- 05.12.2025Ottawa Senators2:4New York RangersNHL
- 08.03.2025Ottawa Senators4:3New York RangersNHL
- 22.01.2025New York Rangers5:0Ottawa SenatorsNHL
About the match
- 24 October · 19:00 New York
- Venue: Canadian Tire Centre (Ottawa)
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 01:10
Market view and goal-line direction
The 1X2 market gives Ottawa a narrow home advantage, with the home-win probability at 41.7%, ahead of New York at 35.3%; the draw is assigned 23.1%. The line has moved toward Ottawa over the last 24 hours, while the Rangers’ side has drifted away. This is a modest preference rather than a strong separation between the teams.
The market leans slightly to Over 5.5 goals at 53.9%, with Under 5.5 at 46.1%. The strongest position is both teams to score, assessed at 88.3%, and that line has shortened. Recent defensive records, the last four head-to-head meetings and the emergency goaltending situations all fit that direction, while the absence of special-teams percentages limits a more precise assessment of how goals may be distributed.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Over (5)
- Current odds
- 1.48
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 65%
- Market estimate
- 63%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.48
- Potential win
- 48 $
- Status
- pending
