Dallas Stars — Winnipeg Jets forecast: NHL match analysis
Dallas Stars
Winnipeg JetsMatch result
Dallas Stars 3:2 Winnipeg Jets (0:0, 1:2, 1:0, 1:0)
The Dallas Stars defeated the Winnipeg Jets 3:2 in an NHL match. Following a 0:0 first period, Winnipeg grabbed a 1:2 edge in the second, but Dallas leveled in the third (1:0) and won in extra time (1:0). Our W1 prediction for a home win proved accurate, meaning the bet won.
Our prediction: W1 at 1.82 — the bet won.
Dallas Stars host Winnipeg Jets at American Airlines Center in a Western Conference game. Dallas has 11 points from nine matches and sits sixth, while Winnipeg has 10 points from nine games in ninth place. The gap to the conference leader is five points for Dallas and six for Winnipeg.
Dallas Stars: improving results and defensive control
Recent form and home profile
Dallas has won three consecutive games after opening this sequence with two defeats. The Stars scored in all five games and allowed at least one goal in four. Their latest result was a 3:2 home win over Boston Bruins. Dallas has scored 23 goals and conceded 15 in nine games.
Strengths, weaknesses and available lineup
- Three straight wins followed a two-game losing sequence.
- Dallas has scored in each of its last five matches.
- The defense kept a clean sheet against Chicago and has allowed 15 goals in nine league games.
- Both recent home games finished with a one-goal margin.
- Boston Bruinshome3:2
- Chicago Blackhawksaway4:0
- Colorado Avalancheaway3:2
- Colorado Avalanchehome2:3
- Pittsburgh Penguinsaway1:2
Winnipeg Jets: scoring continuity against a fragile defensive run
Recent form and road performance
Winnipeg has lost four of its last five games and enters with three defeats in a row. They found the net in all five matches but also conceded in all five. Their latest game ended in a 1:2 defeat at St. Louis. Winnipeg has scored 24 goals and conceded 26 after nine games.
Goaltending situation and tactical risks
Connor Hellebuyck remains suspended for this game, with the suspension expiring on 23 October, one day after the scheduled fixture. Winnipeg therefore will be without Hellebuyck for this matchup. Coach Scott Arniel has focused on preparation and correcting mistakes rather than discussing Hellebuyck’s return, while Kyle Connor avoided detailed comment. Captain Adam Lowry said that a return would require serious discussion inside the dressing room and with management. No other Winnipeg injuries, suspensions or confirmed lineup changes are listed.
Winnipeg has scored in five straight games. The defense has conceded 16 goals in the last five and recorded no clean sheet. Power-play and penalty-kill percentages are not included.
- St. Louis Bluesaway1:2
- Carolina Hurricaneshome2:3
- Chicago Blackhawksaway3:4
- Minnesota Wildhome5:2
- Anaheim Duckshome1:5
Head-to-head pattern favors the home side
Dallas leads the official series over the last five years with nine wins to Winnipeg’s six, with no drawn results. The most recent eight meetings are especially favorable to the Stars: Dallas won seven, including each of the last four. In those eight games, Dallas scored 26 goals and Winnipeg scored 17.
The latest meeting finished 3:0 for Dallas on 2 April 2026. Earlier meetings also produced high-scoring results, including 5:4 and 4:3 wins for the Stars, while the two most recent games in the sequence ended with Dallas conceding no goals.
- 03.04.2026Dallas Stars3:0Winnipeg JetsNHL
- 03.02.2026Dallas Stars4:3Winnipeg JetsNHL
- 10.12.2025Winnipeg Jets3:4Dallas StarsNHL
- 10.10.2025Winnipeg Jets4:5Dallas StarsNHL
- 18.05.2025Dallas Stars2:1Winnipeg JetsNHL (Play-off)
News around the game
Winnipeg will again be without Connor Hellebuyck because his suspension ends on 23 October. The Jets face Dallas before their regular starter becomes available. Coach Scott Arniel has not offered a detailed public assessment, and the club’s senior players have also avoided a definitive statement about the goaltender’s return.
Dallas has no confirmed injuries or suspensions, and neither team has a confirmed starting goaltender. No additional lineup changes are listed. Winnipeg’s temporary absence of Hellebuyck comes during a three-game losing run.
Line-ups
Dallas Stars
Substitutes: 1. Casey DeSmith
Coach: Glen Gulutzan
Winnipeg Jets
Substitutes: 33. Clay Stevenson
Coach: Scott Arniel
Our Pick: W1
Dallas Stars should be backed for a home win against Winnipeg Jets: W1 1.82. Dallas arrives with three consecutive victories, scoring 10 goals and conceding 4 across those games. The defensive trend is especially valuable at American Airlines Center, where the Stars beat Colorado 2:3? No—at home they defeated Boston 3:2 after the earlier 2:3 loss to Colorado, while their latest two wins overall also included a 4:0 shutout in Chicago.
Winnipeg has lost three straight and four of its last five matches, allowing 16 goals in that span. The Jets have scored in every one of those five games, but their defensive floor remains low. Connor Hellebuyck is still suspended, with his ban ending on 23 October, so he is unavailable for this meeting. Dallas also leads the recent series: the Stars won each of the last four head-to-head games and seven of the last eight. The expected score is 4:2 to Dallas.
Conclusion
W1 1.82 is the choice. Dallas combines stronger current results, home advantage, a better defensive run and a clear recent head-to-head edge over Winnipeg.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Boston Bruinshome3:2
- Chicago Blackhawksaway4:0
- Colorado Avalancheaway3:2
- Colorado Avalanchehome2:3
- Pittsburgh Penguinsaway1:2
- St. Louis Bluesaway1:2
- Carolina Hurricaneshome2:3
- Chicago Blackhawksaway3:4
- Minnesota Wildhome5:2
- Anaheim Duckshome1:5
Standings · Central Division
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Mammoth | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 41:36 | 14 |
| 2 | Minnesota Wild | 11 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 32:27 | 14 |
| 3 | Dallas Stars | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 26:17 | 13 |
| 4 | Colorado Avalanche | 10 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 41:31 | 11 |
| 5 | St. Louis Blues | 10 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 35:31 | 11 |
| 6 | Winnipeg Jets | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 26:29 | 11 |
| 7 | Nashville Predators | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 23:30 | 9 |
| 8 | Chicago Blackhawks | 9 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 21:36 | 6 |
Head-to-head
- 03.04.2026Dallas Stars3:0Winnipeg JetsNHL
- 03.02.2026Dallas Stars4:3Winnipeg JetsNHL
- 10.12.2025Winnipeg Jets3:4Dallas StarsNHL
- 10.10.2025Winnipeg Jets4:5Dallas StarsNHL
- 18.05.2025Dallas Stars2:1Winnipeg JetsNHL (Play-off)
About the match
- 22 October · 20:00 New York
- Venue: American Airlines Center (Dallas)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and totals structure
The market makes Dallas the favorite at 52.1% for a home win, compared with 25.9% for Winnipeg and 22% for a draw after regulation. Support for Dallas has strengthened during the last day, while the Winnipeg and draw lines have moved against those outcomes. Dallas has three consecutive wins, whereas Winnipeg has three consecutive losses and has dropped both of its recent away games.
The goals market is close to balanced: Over 5.5 carries 51.3% and Under 5.5 carries 48.7%. The line has moved toward the under despite both teams scoring in all of their recent matches. The BTTS market assigns 86.8% to Yes, although that side has weakened slightly. The 1X2 margin is 5.5%, so Dallas is favored without an overwhelming price.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.82
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 52%
- Market estimate
- 52%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.82
- Potential win
- 82 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.84
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +82 $
