NHL Match Prediction: Colorado Avalanche vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Colorado Avalanche
Pittsburgh PenguinsColorado host Pittsburgh at Ball Arena in Denver on October 16, with faceoff at 21:00 America/New_York. Both teams have losing recent records. The Penguins have 7 points from 7 games and trail Carolina by 6; Colorado have 9 points. Colorado are 6th in their division.
Colorado: scoring bursts, uneven defending
Recent results and home performance
The Avalanche have 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games.
Offensive output and defensive exposure
Colorado scored and conceded in every game. They scored seven goals at Calgary.
Availability and deployment
Cale Makar returned against Dallas after missing the previous game. Nicolas Roy and Zachary L’Heureux are questionable; Logan O’Connor and Georgii Merkulov are out.
- Dallas Starshome2:3
- Dallas Starsaway3:2
- Toronto Maple Leafshome3:6
- Calgary Flamesaway7:3
- Winnipeg Jetsaway2:3
Pittsburgh: road defence under pressure
Form away from home
The Penguins have lost four of their last five, scoring 12 goals and allowing 17. All three road games ended in defeat, with 8 scored and 13 conceded. Their only victory was a 2–1 home result against Dallas; their latest outing was a 5–3 loss in Chicago.
Scoring range and game totals
Pittsburgh scored either two or three goals in each of those five games. They conceded five twice, and only those two games cleared 6.5 total goals. Both teams scored in all five: regular scoring from each side did not consistently produce high totals.
Missing players and lineup limits
Justin Brazeau, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Ryan Graves will miss the game through injury. Replacement pairings for the two absent defencemen remain unconfirmed, as does the probable lineup. Starting-goaltender details, save percentage and special-teams rates are unavailable, leaving no established Pittsburgh advantage in either area.
- Chicago Blackhawksaway3:5
- Dallas Starshome2:1
- Columbus Blue Jacketsaway2:3
- Washington Capitalsaway3:5
- Winnipeg Jetshome2:3
Head-to-head: Colorado lead, totals vary
Colorado won 6 of the 10 official meetings across five years. Eight encounters produced 49 goals, averaging 6.125 per game, with five exceeding 6.5. In the latest two, Pittsburgh won 7–2 in Denver before Colorado answered with a 6–2 road victory. That historical edge does not establish an advantage in the current matchup.
- 24.03.2026Pittsburgh Penguins2:6Colorado AvalancheNHL
- 17.03.2026Colorado Avalanche2:7Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 05.03.2025Colorado Avalanche4:1Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 11.12.2024Pittsburgh Penguins2:6Colorado AvalancheNHL
- 24.03.2024Colorado Avalanche5:4Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
Schedule and the latest coaching update
Jared Bednar described Roy and L’Heureux as day-to-day while questioning the precision of that assessment. Colorado played on October 13 and 14, travelling from Dallas back to Denver; Pittsburgh last played in Chicago on October 13. The visitors have one additional clear day between games, although their itinerary is unconfirmed.
Our pick: Colorado to win in regulation
Our selection is W1 1.8. Colorado’s edge at Ball Arena rests on Pittsburgh’s depleted defence rather than a clean recent record for the hosts. Trevor van Riemsdyk and Ryan Graves are out injured, reducing the visitors’ options. Against an Avalanche attack, those absences increase the pressure on the remaining defenders.
Cale Makar’s return against Dallas strengthens Colorado’s case, restoring a key player while Pittsburgh must adjust without two injured players. The hosts still carry risk. That prevents treating home ice alone as decisive, but the personnel contrast favours Colorado against opponents struggling to contain attacks on the road. Predicted score: 4–2 to Colorado.
Final verdict
W1 1.8 is the recommendation, with Makar’s return and Pittsburgh’s defensive absences providing the clearest matchup advantage. Colorado’s own defensive lapses keep confidence measured, so the selection is a regulation win rather than a claim of a comfortable margin.
FAQ
When does Colorado Avalanche — Pittsburgh Penguins kick off?
The match starts on 16.10.2026 at 21:00 (New York), Ball Arena (Denver).
What is the prediction for Colorado Avalanche — Pittsburgh Penguins?
Our pick is W1 at 1.8.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Colorado Avalanche win — 53%, draw — 21%, Pittsburgh Penguins win — 27%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Dallas Starshome2:3
- Dallas Starsaway3:2
- Toronto Maple Leafshome3:6
- Calgary Flamesaway7:3
- Winnipeg Jetsaway2:3
- Chicago Blackhawksaway3:5
- Dallas Starshome2:1
- Columbus Blue Jacketsaway2:3
- Washington Capitalsaway3:5
- Winnipeg Jetshome2:3
Standings · Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Winnipeg Jets | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21:21 | 10 |
| 7 | Colorado Avalanche | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 31:22 | 9 |
| 8 | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20:17 | 8 |
Head-to-head
- 24.03.2026Pittsburgh Penguins2:6Colorado AvalancheNHL
- 17.03.2026Colorado Avalanche2:7Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 05.03.2025Colorado Avalanche4:1Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
- 11.12.2024Pittsburgh Penguins2:6Colorado AvalancheNHL
- 24.03.2024Colorado Avalanche5:4Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL
About the match
- 16 October · 21:00 New York
- Venue: Ball Arena (Denver)
Odds
Odds updated 16.10 15:10
Market positioning and movement
Colorado are the regulation-time favourites at 53%, compared with 21% for a draw and 26.1% for Pittsburgh. Over the past 24 hours, support has strengthened for the hosts and weakened for the other two outcomes.
Under 6.5 retains a 53.9% probability, although movement favours the Over at 46.1%. BTTS stands at 88.1% and has also attracted support. The market favours both teams scoring more strongly than a total of seven or more goals.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.8
- Odds at prediction
- 1.79
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 56%
- Market estimate
- 53%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.79
- Potential win
- 79 $
- Status
- pending
