NHL Prediction: Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars Match Preview
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas StarsColorado hosts Dallas at Ball Arena in Denver on October 14 at 20:30 Eastern, one day after their meeting in Texas. The Avalanche sit seventh in the Western Conference with 8 points from 6 games; the Stars are 12th with 5. Both teams must travel between consecutive games, leaving little recovery time before the rematch.
Colorado: scoring depth, uneven defensive returns
Recent form and scoring profile
The Avalanche have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 21 goals and conceding 15. Their two home games produced a 6–1 win over St. Louis and a 3–6 loss to Toronto. On the road, they recorded 2 wins and 1 defeat, with a combined 12–8 goal balance.
- Colorado scored in all 5 recent games, averaging 4.2 goals.
- They also conceded in all 5, averaging 3.0 goals against.
- Two of those games finished above the 5.5-goal total.
- Their season goal balance is 29–19 across 6 games.
Availability and defensive personnel
Logan O’Connor is out with a lower-body injury, and Georgii Merkulov is unavailable with an unspecified injury. Zachary L’Heureux is day-to-day with an upper-body issue. Cale Makar missed the previous game for personal reasons; Jared Bednar has not confirmed his return. His availability affects Colorado’s defensive deployment, but no lineup or tactical adjustment can be specified without confirmation.
- Dallas Starsaway3:2
- Toronto Meypl Lifshome3:6
- Kalgari Fleymsaway7:3
- Vinnipeg Dzhet·saway2:3
- Sent-Luis Blyushome6:1
Dallas: low goals against, limited recent production
Results and the road split
Dallas has 2 wins and 3 defeats in its last 5, with 13 goals scored and 7 conceded. Consecutive losses followed consecutive shutout wins. The Stars scored once in each defeat at Nashville and Pittsburgh, while their other away game ended in a 4–0 win at Buffalo.
- Two shutouts account for much of the strong defensive return.
- Dallas conceded no more than 3 goals in any of those 5 games.
- None of those 5 recent games exceeded 5.5 total goals.
- The season totals stand at 13 goals for and 11 against.
Absences affect attacking options
Wyatt Johnston will miss the game through illness and did not travel to Colorado. Matt Duchene remains out following surgery for an injury. Roope Hintz is day-to-day with an unspecified issue, while Joel Kiviranta has a lower-body injury and the same status. The confirmed absences reduce Dallas’s attacking options; Hintz’s availability remains relevant before forward combinations are assigned.
- Kolorado Evelanshhome2:3
- Pitt·sburg Pingvinsaway1:2
- Baffalo Seybrsaway4:0
- San-Khose Sharkshome5:0
- N·eshvill Predatorzaway1:2
Head-to-head: a narrow Colorado advantage
Colorado leads the stated five-year official record by 8 wins to 7. The eight listed recent meetings, including two preseason games, are split evenly and contain 44 goals, an average of 5.5 per game. Only 3 of those 8 exceeded that total; two nine-goal games lift the average rather than indicating a consistently high-scoring pattern.
The latest meeting ended 3–2 to Colorado in Dallas on October 13. The overnight venue change and short turnaround alter preparation for both teams.
- 14.10.2026Dallas Stars2:3Kolorado EvelanshNHL
- 04.04.2026Dallas Stars0:2Kolorado EvelanshNHL
- 19.03.2026Kolorado Evelansh1:2Dallas StarsNHL
- 07.03.2026Dallas Stars4:5Kolorado EvelanshNHL
- 12.10.2025Kolorado Evelansh4:5Dallas StarsNHL
Pre-game checks still outstanding
No confirmed starting goalies, save percentages, power-play or penalty-kill rates, complete lineups, suspension updates or expert opinions are available. Recent goals against therefore cannot be attributed specifically to goaltending, and neither team can be assigned a quantified special-teams advantage.
Our pick: Colorado to avoid defeat
Our bet is 1X 1.45: Colorado to win or draw in regulation at Ball Arena. The hosts scored 29 goals in their opening 6 games against Dallas's 13, giving them more room to absorb a quiet spell in attack. They also won 3–2 in Texas the previous night; the return fixture now moves to Denver.
Dallas must replace Matt Duchene after surgery and Wyatt Johnston, who is ill and did not travel, according to media reports. Those absences reduce the visitors' attacking options, while Roope Hintz remains day-to-day rather than a confirmed absentee. Colorado's own uncertainty matters: Cale Makar's return has not been confirmed. With the Avalanche conceding in all 5 recent games, backing them to avoid a regulation defeat is preferable to requiring a win. Expected score: 3–2 to Colorado.
Final call
1X 1.45 covers the draw while retaining Colorado's home advantage against a depleted Dallas attack. The defensive risk keeps this a measured selection, not a confident prediction of a home win.
FAQ
When does Colorado Avalanche — Dallas Stars kick off?
The match starts on 14.10.2026 at 20:30 (New York), Ball Arena (Denver).
What is the prediction for Colorado Avalanche — Dallas Stars?
Our pick is 1X at 1.45.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Colorado Avalanche win — 44%, draw — 23%, Dallas Stars win — 34%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Dallas Starsaway3:2
- Toronto Meypl Lifshome3:6
- Kalgari Fleymsaway7:3
- Vinnipeg Dzhet·saway2:3
- Sent-Luis Blyushome6:1
- Kolorado Evelanshhome2:3
- Pitt·sburg Pingvinsaway1:2
- Baffalo Seybrsaway4:0
- San-Khose Sharkshome5:0
- N·eshvill Predatorzaway1:2
Standings · Zapadnaya konferentsiya
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Minnesota Wild | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21:16 | 9 |
| 7 | Colorado Avalanche | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 29:19 | 8 |
| 8 | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20:17 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21:18 | 7 |
| 10 | San Jose Sharks | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16:23 | 6 |
| 11 | Nashville Predators | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:19 | 6 |
| 12 | Dallas Stars | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13:11 | 5 |
| 13 | Chicago Blackhawks | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17:29 | 4 |
Head-to-head
- 14.10.2026Dallas Stars2:3Kolorado EvelanshNHL
- 04.04.2026Dallas Stars0:2Kolorado EvelanshNHL
- 19.03.2026Kolorado Evelansh1:2Dallas StarsNHL
- 07.03.2026Dallas Stars4:5Kolorado EvelanshNHL
- 12.10.2025Kolorado Evelansh4:5Dallas StarsNHL
About the match
- 14 October · 20:30 New York
- Venue: Ball Arena (Denver)
Odds
Odds updated 14.10 14:40
Market positioning and the scoring line
Colorado is the 1X2 favourite at 43%, ahead of Dallas at 34.2%, with the draw at 22.8%. This is a modest home edge, not a majority probability. Over the last 24 hours, support has shifted towards the visitors, while confidence in the home win and draw has weakened.
Over 5.5 carries a 54.6% market probability and has strengthened. That direction contrasts with Dallas’s recent low totals, while Colorado’s scoring record supplies the stronger attacking argument. BTTS is assessed at 86.9% and has also gained support; both teams scored in every game of their respective five-match samples.
Our prediction
- Market
- 1X
- Current odds
- 1.45
- Odds at prediction
- 1.46
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.47
- Potential win
- 47 $
- Status
- pending
