Finland Elite League: Ilves vs Mikkelin Jukurit Match Prediction

Finland. Elite League Finished

Ilves

1:2

(0:0, 0:0, 1:1, 0:0, 0:1)

Full time

Mikkelin Jukurit

11.6158%

X4.5521%

24.5221%

Our prediction

W1 1.76

Stake 100 $, potential win 76 $ odds at kick-off 1.61

lost

−100 $

Match result

Ilves 1:2 Mikkelin Jukurit (0:0, 0:0, 1:1, 0:0, 0:1)

In the Finland Elite League, Ilves played against Mikkelin Jukurit. The match finished with a 1:2 score after period results of 0:0, 0:0, 1:1, 0:0, and 0:1. The home team could not secure the victory, so our W1 bet lost.

Our prediction: W1 at 1.76 — the bet lost.

Ilves host Mikkelin Jukurit on 24 October with both within two points of leaders Lukko. Ilves are second with 31 points from 16 games; Jukurit are fourth with 30 from 17. The venue is listed as Oulu Energia Arena in Oulu, although the match announcement names Nokia Arena: that discrepancy prevents a firm assessment of home-ice conditions and travel.

IlvesLast 5: 3 W, 0 D, 2 L

Ilves: scoring consistency, uneven defensive returns

Recent form and home-away split

Ilves have three wins and two defeats in their last five, scoring 14 goals and conceding 10. Four of those games were away, producing two wins and two losses; their only home appearance ended in a 4:3 victory over Jokerit. That is too small a home sample to establish a separate trend.

Strengths and pressure points

They scored in all five matches, with at least three goals in four.
Two shutouts contrast with 10 goals conceded across the other three games.
Their season return is 47 goals for and 34 against, a goal difference of +13.

Selection and workload

No confirmed Ilves injuries, suspensions, projected lines, tactical setup, starting goalie, save percentage or power-play and penalty-kill rates are supplied. This is their second game on consecutive dates and third since 20 October, making the unconfirmed goaltending assignment especially relevant to assessing defensive continuity.

Recent matches

23.10.26Mikkelin Jukuritaway3:0
20.10.26TPSaway3:4
17.10.26Jokerithome4:3
16.10.26HPKaway1:3
10.10.26Jokeritaway3:0

Mikkelin JukuritLast 5: 3 W, 0 D, 2 L

Jukurit: a winning sequence interrupted

Recent results and road performances

Jukurit also have three wins and two defeats across five games, with nine goals scored and 10 conceded. Three successive victories were followed by yesterday’s 0:3 home loss to Ilves. Their two away games in this sample were a 1:4 defeat at KooKoo and a 3:0 win at Sport: sharply different results rather than a settled road pattern.

Attacking output and defensive balance

They scored in four of five games, but never exceeded three goals.
Three of those five matches finished with fewer than five total goals.
Across the season, they have scored 42 and conceded 34 in 17 games.

Absences and available reinforcements

Defenceman Niko Korkola and forwards Alex Haatanen and Jeremi Tammela are out for 4–6 weeks; both forwards suffered facial injuries from pucks. Forward Aaron Hakala has returned. No confirmed lines, suspensions, starting goalie, save percentage or special-teams rates are supplied. Jukurit face the same consecutive-date turnaround, with fewer available skaters after those three absences.

Recent matches

23.10.26Ilveshome0:3
20.10.26Vaasan Sportaway3:0
17.10.26Tapparahome3:2
10.10.26Oulun Karpathome2:1
09.10.26KooKoo Kouvolaaway1:4

Head-to-head record favours Ilves

Ilves have won 11 of 15 official meetings over five years. They have also won seven of the last eight, including the last five consecutively. Those eight games produced 39 goals, an average of 4.88; six reached at least five total goals. The historical scoring pattern is therefore higher than Jukurit’s recent results, rather than uniformly low-scoring.

Ilves wins 11draws 0Mikkelin Jukurit wins 4

23.10.2026Mikkelin Jukurit0:3IlvesFinland. Elite League
29.09.2026Ilves3:2Mikkelin JukuritFinland. Elite League
14.02.2026Ilves6:2Mikkelin JukuritFinland. Elite League
24.01.2026Mikkelin Jukurit2:3IlvesFinland. Elite League
25.10.2025Ilves3:2Mikkelin JukuritFinland. Elite League

Coaching assessment and recruitment plans

Ilves coach Tuomas Kiiskinen described the latest victory as his team’s most complete 60-minute performance of the season. Jukurit sporting director Mikko Hakkarainen said the club was considering recruitment to maintain competitiveness through its injury problems. That is a stated intention, not a confirmed addition available for this fixture.

Line-ups

Ilves

Substitutes: 38. Timi Teuho-Markkola, 40. Mantas Armalis

Coach: Tommi Niemela

Mikkelin Jukurit

Substitutes: 11. Bence Horvath, 30. Aleksandr Osipov

Coach: Jonne Virtanen

Our pick: Ilves to prevail

Our bet is W1 1.76. Ilves have won 11 of the last 15 meetings with Jukurit, including yesterday’s 3:0 away victory. The relevance is immediate: the visitors must find a way through a defence they failed to breach a day earlier, with little time to adjust. Ilves also have the stronger season-long scoring return: 47 goals in 16 games against Jukurit’s 42 in 17.

Jukurit’s absences make that response harder. Defender Niko Korkola and forwards Alex Haatanen and Jeremi Tammela are each out for 4–6 weeks, reducing options across both defence and attack. Aaron Hakala’s return restores one forward, but does not replace all three missing players. The hosts’ own defensive fluctuations remain the main risk, so the selection rests on their attacking edge rather than an expectation of another shutout. Predicted score: 3:1 to Ilves.

Final verdict

W1 1.76 is our selection: Ilves can exploit a depleted opponent without needing to repeat yesterday’s clean sheet.

Chances by market estimate

Ilves58%

Draw21%

Mikkelin Jukurit21%

Team form

IlvesLast 5: 3 W, 0 D, 2 L

23.10.26Mikkelin Jukuritaway3:0
20.10.26TPSaway3:4
17.10.26Jokerithome4:3
16.10.26HPKaway1:3
10.10.26Jokeritaway3:0

Mikkelin JukuritLast 5: 3 W, 0 D, 2 L

23.10.26Ilveshome0:3
20.10.26Vaasan Sportaway3:0
17.10.26Tapparahome3:2
10.10.26Oulun Karpathome2:1
09.10.26KooKoo Kouvolaaway1:4

Standings

#	Team	P	W	L	Goals	Pts
1	Lukko	16	9	4	43:31	32
2	Ilves	16	9	5	47:34	31
3	SaiPa	15	8	3	46:26	31
4	Mikkelin Jukurit	17	8	6	42:34	30
5	Oulun Karpat	17	6	3	50:45	30

Head-to-head

Ilves wins 11draws 0Mikkelin Jukurit wins 4

23.10.2026Mikkelin Jukurit0:3IlvesFinland. Elite League
29.09.2026Ilves3:2Mikkelin JukuritFinland. Elite League
14.02.2026Ilves6:2Mikkelin JukuritFinland. Elite League
24.01.2026Mikkelin Jukurit2:3IlvesFinland. Elite League
25.10.2025Ilves3:2Mikkelin JukuritFinland. Elite League

About the match

24 October · 10:00 New York
Venue: Oulu Energia Arena (Oulu)

Odds

Match result

W11.61

X4.55

W24.52

Double chance

1X1.18

121.18

2X2.29

Handicaps

Handicap 1 (-2)2.52

Handicap 1 (-1.5)2.02

Handicap 1 (-1)1.78

Handicap 2 (1)1.98

Handicap 2 (1.5)1.7

Handicap 2 (2)1.43

Totals

Total Over (3.5)1.27

Total Over (4.5)1.69

Total Over (5.5)2.33

Total Under (3.5)3.28

Total Under (4.5)2.1

Total Under (5.5)1.51

Both teams to score

Both Teams To Score - Yes1.16

Both Teams To Score - No4.4

odds before kick-off

Market preference weakens despite favourite status

Ilves remain the 1X2 favourite with a margin-free home-win probability of 53.5%, against 22.1% for the draw and 24.4% for Jukurit. Over the last 24 hours, the line has moved away from the hosts and towards both alternatives. The market still prefers Ilves, but its confidence has softened.

The Over/Under 4.5 goals market is close to balanced: Over carries 51.7% and Under 48.3%, with movement towards Under. BTTS (both teams to score) is assessed at 78.7% and has strengthened. These markets distinguish an expectation that both teams contribute from a much less decisive view on the overall goal count.

Our prediction

Market: W1
Odds: 1.76
Confidence
Our estimate: 55%
Market estimate: 58%
Stake amount: 100 $ · 1.76
Potential win: 76 $
Odds at kick-off: 1.61
Status: lost
Profit: −100 $