Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes: MLS Match Prediction
Dallas
San Jose EarthquakesDallas hosts San Jose Earthquakes at Toyota Stadium with Western Conference playoff positioning at stake. Dallas is third with 51 points, while San Jose is fourth on 48 as the regular season enters its final stage.
Dallas: home stability and a controlled attack
Recent form and tournament profile
Dallas has two wins, two draws and one defeat in its last five matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding 5. Its latest game ended 2:2 away to Houston Dynamo, following home wins over Seattle Sounders and Los Angeles without conceding. The defeat came at Charlotte, 2:3.
Dallas averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per league match. BTTS landed in 19 of 30 games, and 20 finished Over 2.5 goals. At home, Dallas has 7 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats in 14 matches, with 26 goals scored and 20 conceded. The club is level on points with St. Louis City and four behind Vancouver Whitecaps.
Strengths, weaknesses and squad status
- Dallas scored in 4 of its last 5 matches.
- The defence has conceded 47 goals in 30 league games.
- Dallas has kept 7 clean sheets this season.
Ferreyra, Kappis K. and Farrington are among Dallas’s leading tournament scorers, each with one goal in limited appearances.
- Houston Dynamoaway2:2
- Seattle Soundershome1:0
- Charlotteaway2:3
- Los Angeleshome1:0
- Austinhome0:0
San Jose Earthquakes: unbeaten run built on draws
Recent form and away performance
San Jose is unbeaten in five matches, with one win and four draws, scoring 8 goals and conceding 6. Both teams scored in all five games. The latest result, 1:1 against Nashville, was its third consecutive draw.
Away from home, San Jose has 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats in 15 league fixtures, with 26 goals scored and 19 conceded. Across 30 matches, the Earthquakes average 1.73 goals scored and 1.40 conceded. BTTS landed in 20 games, while 16 finished Over 2.5 goals.
Playing profile and available personnel
San Jose has conceded 42 league goals, fewer than Dallas, and has seven clean sheets. Romni, Yasinski and Dzhadd P. are among the club’s leading tournament scorers, each with one goal in three appearances.
- Nashvillehome1:1
- Real Salt Lakeaway1:1
- Colorado Rapidsaway1:1
- Portland Timbershome3:1
- Los Angeleshome2:2
Head-to-head record favors a close contest
Dallas has 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats across 10 official meetings over five years. The latest eight encounters produced 3 Dallas wins, 3 draws and 2 San Jose wins, with Dallas scoring 13 goals and conceding 15.
Both teams scored in each of those eight meetings. Recent results at Dallas include a draw, a home win and a home defeat. The most recent meeting, in May, ended with Dallas winning 3:2 away.
- 17.05.2026San Jose Earthquakes2:3DallasUSA. MLS
- 17.07.2025San Jose Earthquakes2:2DallasUSA. MLS
- 25.06.2025Dallas2:4San Jose EarthquakesUSA. MLS
- 03.10.2024San Jose Earthquakes3:2DallasUSA. MLS. Play-off
- 25.02.2024Dallas2:1San Jose EarthquakesUSA. MLS. Play-off
News, motivation and lineup uncertainty
Confirmed starting lineups, formations, injury updates and suspension details are unavailable for either team. Dallas is defending third place, while San Jose can draw level on points with a win.
The kickoff forecast is 12°C, with no precipitation and light wind.
Our pick: Dallas to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.53. Dallas has scored 55 goals in 30 league matches, averaging 1.83 per game, and its home return of 26 in 14 is slightly higher. This selection targets the hosts’ scoring rather than requiring them to beat a San Jose side unbeaten in five.
San Jose has conceded in each of its last five matches, although four of those games brought just one goal against: that is the main caution against this bet. The matchup offers stronger support, with Dallas scoring at least twice in each of the last five meetings, including three in the latest encounter. Recent home output is less persuasive, with only two goals across three fixtures, so the case rests on the season-long attack and this opponent rather than a home scoring surge. No confirmed team news is available to adjust that assessment. Predicted score: 2:1.
Final verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.53 is our selection: Dallas can clear the scoring threshold without needing a clean sheet or all three points.
FAQ
When does Dallas — San Jose Earthquakes kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 20:30 (New York), Toyota Stadium (Fenton).
What is the prediction for Dallas — San Jose Earthquakes?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.53.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Dallas win — 53%, draw — 23%, San Jose Earthquakes win — 24%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Houston Dynamoaway2:2
- Seattle Soundershome1:0
- Charlotteaway2:3
- Los Angeleshome1:0
- Austinhome0:0
- Nashvillehome1:1
- Real Salt Lakeaway1:1
- Colorado Rapidsaway1:1
- Portland Timbershome3:1
- Los Angeleshome2:2
Standings · Zapadnaya konferentsiya
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56:41 | 51 |
| 3 | Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55:47 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 52:42 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41:39 | 47 |
Head-to-head
- 17.05.2026San Jose Earthquakes2:3DallasUSA. MLS
- 17.07.2025San Jose Earthquakes2:2DallasUSA. MLS
- 25.06.2025Dallas2:4San Jose EarthquakesUSA. MLS
- 03.10.2024San Jose Earthquakes3:2DallasUSA. MLS. Play-off
- 25.02.2024Dallas2:1San Jose EarthquakesUSA. MLS. Play-off
About the match
- 24 October · 20:30 New York
- Venue: Toyota Stadium (Fenton)
- Weather: 12° · precip. 0% · wind 2.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 05:10
Market view and principal probabilities
The 1X2 market assigns Dallas a 54.7% home-win probability, compared with 22.5% for the draw and 22.8% for a San Jose away win. The line has shown no notable movement over the last day.
Under 3.5 goals carries a 54.3% probability, against 45.8% for Over 3.5, while BTTS Yes is assessed at 64.3%. The goal markets favor both teams scoring more strongly than a total above 3.5 goals.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.53
- Odds at prediction
- 1.5
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 62%
- Market estimate
- 61%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.5
- Potential win
- 50 $
- Status
- pending