Club Nacional Montevideo vs Liverpool Montevideo: Primera Division prediction
Club Nacional Montevideo
Liverpool MontevideoClub Nacional Montevideo host Liverpool Montevideo at Gran Park Central on 25 October in round 12 of Uruguay’s Primera Division, with first place at stake. Liverpool lead with 24 points, Nacional have 23, and third-placed Montevideo City Torque are another point behind. A draw would keep Liverpool ahead of Nacional and both within Torque’s reach.
Nacional: winning momentum, mixed defensive returns
Recent results and scoring patterns
Nacional have won their last five league and cup matches. They beat Defensor Sporting at home in the league, Cerro Largo and Central Espanol away, Rentistas in the cup, and Deportivo Maldonado at home in the league. Their latest match finished 3:2 on 19 October.
Strengths and weaknesses by venue
- Nacional scored three goals in each of their three recent home matches.
- Both home league wins finished 3:2.
- The two away victories were clean sheets.
Scorers and selection outlook
Kalʹvo is among Nacional’s leading players with two goals in two appearances; Boggio L. and Korrea have one each from two games. Nacional have scored 17 and conceded 11 across 11 league fixtures, leaving them with a narrower goal difference than Liverpool. No fresh match-specific facts were found.
- Deportivo Maldonadohome3:2
- Rentistashome3:0
- Central Espanolaway1:0
- Cerro Largoaway2:0
- Defensor Sportinghome3:2
Liverpool: the leaders arrive unbeaten
Recent form and defensive progress
Liverpool’s last five games produced four wins and a draw, with eight goals scored and four conceded. A 2:1 win at Central Espanol and a 3:2 home victory over Progreso preceded a 1:1 draw at Deportivo Maldonado. They then beat Penarol in the league and Cerro Largo in the cup, both 1:0 at home.
Where the visitors hold an edge
- Liverpool have scored 19 and conceded eight in 11 league fixtures, outperforming Nacional at both ends.
- They scored in all five recent matches, reaching three goals once.
- Both recent away games featured BTTS.
- Under 2.5 goals occurred in three of the five outings, including the latest two.
Attacking contributors and preparation time
Zabala D. has two tournament goals in three appearances; Milano and Martines each have one from three. Liverpool’s cup match on 21 October leaves four calendar days before this fixture, compared with six for Nacional. No team update establishes whether the shorter turnaround will affect selection.
- Cerro Largohome1:0
- Penarolhome1:0
- Deportivo Maldonadoaway1:1
- C.A. Progresohome3:2
- Central Espanolaway2:1
Head-to-head: Nacional have the stronger record
Across 15 official meetings in five years, Nacional have seven wins, Liverpool three, and five have ended in draws. The latest eight produced 21 goals, with BTTS in six. Nacional won all three home encounters in that period and took the most recent meeting 3:1 away in April 2026.
- 19.04.2026Liverpool Montevideo1:3Club Nacional MontevideoUruguay. Primera Division (Apertura)
- 20.09.2025Club Nacional Montevideo3:1Liverpool MontevideoUruguay. Primera Division (Clausura)
- 26.03.2025Liverpool Montevideo2:2Club Nacional MontevideoUruguay. Primera Division (Torneo Intermedio)
- 08.09.2024Club Nacional Montevideo1:0Liverpool MontevideoUruguay. Primera Division (Clausura)
- 15.06.2024Club Nacional Montevideo2:1Liverpool MontevideoUruguay. Primera Division (Clausura)
Match news and expert comment
No fresh match-specific news or expert opinions are available.
Nacional’s scoring threshold is the target
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.33. Nacional have scored 12 goals across their last five matches, reaching at least two in four of them. Their three home fixtures in that sequence each produced three goals: the case rests on repeated scoring at Gran Park Central rather than needing to predict the winner.
The matchup supports that threshold: Nacional have scored in seven consecutive meetings with Liverpool, netting six across the latest two. Liverpool’s eight goals conceded in 11 league games warn against expecting another three-goal return, but the hosts need only two to settle this bet as a winner. No fresh injury, suspension or lineup information is available. Predicted score: 2:1 to Nacional.
A two-goal target with a one-goal cushion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.33 keeps the focus on Nacional’s attack rather than the match result: exactly one home goal returns the stake, while two or more win the bet. Liverpool’s defensive record is the main risk, so the selection should not be treated as a certainty.
FAQ
When does Club Nacional Montevideo — Liverpool Montevideo kick off?
The match starts on 25.10.2026 at 18:30 (New York), Gran Park Central (Montevideo).
What is the prediction for Club Nacional Montevideo — Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.33.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Club Nacional Montevideo win — 48%, draw — 27%, Liverpool Montevideo win — 25%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Deportivo Maldonadohome3:2
- Rentistashome3:0
- Central Espanolaway1:0
- Cerro Largoaway2:0
- Defensor Sportinghome3:2
- Cerro Largohome1:0
- Penarolhome1:0
- Deportivo Maldonadoaway1:1
- C.A. Progresohome3:2
- Central Espanolaway2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19:8 | 24 |
| 2 | Club Nacional Montevideo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 23 |
| 3 | Montevideo City Torque | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
Head-to-head
- 19.04.2026Liverpool Montevideo1:3Club Nacional MontevideoUruguay. Primera Division (Apertura)
- 20.09.2025Club Nacional Montevideo3:1Liverpool MontevideoUruguay. Primera Division (Clausura)
- 26.03.2025Liverpool Montevideo2:2Club Nacional MontevideoUruguay. Primera Division (Torneo Intermedio)
- 08.09.2024Club Nacional Montevideo1:0Liverpool MontevideoUruguay. Primera Division (Clausura)
- 15.06.2024Club Nacional Montevideo2:1Liverpool MontevideoUruguay. Primera Division (Clausura)
About the match
- 25 October · 18:30 New York
- Venue: Gran Park Central (Montevideo), Montevideo
- Weather: 13° · precip. 0% · wind 6.3 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 25.10 00:20
Market assessment: home advantage outweighs league position
Nacional’s margin-adjusted win probability is 48.1%, below an outright majority, compared with 27.2% for the draw and 24.7% for Liverpool. The market separation exceeds the one-point league gap, favouring Nacional’s home advantage and head-to-head record over Liverpool’s league position.
Under 2.5 is assessed at 52.2% and BTTS at 51.8%, leaving neither goals market with a clear edge. All listed lines have remained broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 69%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.33
- Potential win
- 33 $
- Status
- pending