Hammarby vs Sirius Prediction: Allsvenskan Match Analysis
Hammarby
SiriusHammarby host Sirius at Stockholm’s 3Arena in round 26 of the Allsvenskan, with six points separating the title contenders. The hosts are second on 49 points; the visitors lead with 55. A home victory would halve that gap, while an away win would extend it to nine points.
Hammarby: defensive control underpins the challenge
Recent results and home advantage
Hammarby have won four of their last five matches across all competitions, scoring five goals and conceding one. That sequence includes a friendly victory over Vasteras SK. Their latest league outings brought away wins at Halmstads and Mjallby, although their most recent competitive home game ended in defeat to Djurgardens.
Where the hosts gain and lose ground
- At home in the league: nine wins, one draw and two defeats, with 34 goals scored and seven conceded.
- Across the season, they concede 0.84 goals per match and have kept 11 clean sheets in 25 appearances.
- Only 12 of their 25 league games exceeded 2.5 goals; BTTS occurred in 11.
- Their latest five matches produced no more than two goals each: recent success has relied on protecting narrow margins.
Availability and selection
According to media reports, Amin Boudri was expected to return from a knee injury by mid-October. That timetable is not confirmation of his availability for this match; a probable lineup, formation and further suspension details are not supplied.
- Mjallbyaway2:0
- Halmstadsaway1:0
- Djurgardenshome0:1
- Vasteras SKhome1:0
- Degerforsaway1:0
Sirius: the leaders travel better than their recent results suggest
Form away from home
Sirius have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their latest five fixtures, including a friendly at Brondby, with seven goals scored and six conceded. Their last two league matches were at home: a draw with Elfsborg and a defeat to AIK. Their two away league games in the same sequence both ended in victory.
Attacking output versus defensive exposure
- The away league record is 10 wins, one draw and one defeat, with a 28–13 goal balance.
- They average 2.24 goals scored per league match, but concede 1.28.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred in 18 of 25 league fixtures, and BTTS in 15.
- Eight league clean sheets contrast with goals conceded in four of their latest five matches across all competitions.
Squad concerns
Neo Jonsson is ruled out with a muscle injury. No confirmed starting XI, formation or additional suspension information is supplied, so his absence cannot be translated into a specific tactical reshuffle.
- AIKhome1:2
- Elfsborghome2:2
- GAISaway1:0
- Brondbyaway1:1
- Orgryteaway2:1
Previous meetings favour Hammarby, with a recent reversal
Hammarby have won six of the 10 official meetings over the past five years, with two draws and two defeats. The eight listed encounters produced 34 goals, and seven exceeded 2.5 goals. That scoring history differs sharply from the hosts’ recent low-scoring matches.
This year, Hammarby won the cup meeting 4–3, but Sirius took the reverse league fixture 2–0. The hosts’ historical advantage therefore sits alongside a direct league defeat this season.
- 13.04.2026Sirius2:0HammarbySweden. Allsvenskan
- 22.03.2026Hammarby4:3SiriusSwedish Cup (Play-off)
- 24.08.2025Sirius3:1HammarbySweden. Allsvenskan
- 14.05.2025Hammarby3:2SiriusSweden. Allsvenskan
- 14.03.2025Hammarby4:0SiriusClub Friendlies
Match context without additional selection signals
No further match-specific news or expert opinions are supplied.
Our pick: Hammarby to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.43. Hammarby have scored 34 goals in 12 home league matches, averaging 2.83 per game. That attacking output is the strongest reason to focus on their scoring rather than the result against the league leaders.
Sirius have conceded twice in each of their last two league games. Hammarby also scored at least twice in all four listed official home meetings with these opponents, including the cup tie in March. The caution is Sirius’s away record: just 13 goals conceded in 12 league trips, so their recent defensive lapses should not be treated as a season-long pattern. According to media reports, Neo Jonsson is out with a muscle injury; Amin Boudri’s expected mid-October return does not confirm his availability. Confirmed line-ups are unavailable. A 2-1 home win is the projected score.
Final betting view
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.43 targets Hammarby’s home scoring strength without requiring them to beat a side with 10 away league wins. Sirius’s travel record is the main risk to the selection.
FAQ
When does Hammarby — Sirius kick off?
The match starts on 29.10.2026 at 13:30 (New York), 3Arena (Stockholm).
What is the prediction for Hammarby — Sirius?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.43.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Hammarby win — 64%, draw — 20%, Sirius win — 16%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Mjallbyaway2:0
- Halmstadsaway1:0
- Djurgardenshome0:1
- Vasteras SKhome1:0
- Degerforsaway1:0
- AIKhome1:2
- Elfsborghome2:2
- GAISaway1:0
- Brondbyaway1:1
- Orgryteaway2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 56:32 | 55 |
| 2 | Hammarby | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 52:21 | 49 |
| 3 | Djurgardens | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 53:24 | 49 |
Head-to-head
- 13.04.2026Sirius2:0HammarbySweden. Allsvenskan
- 22.03.2026Hammarby4:3SiriusSwedish Cup (Play-off)
- 24.08.2025Sirius3:1HammarbySweden. Allsvenskan
- 14.05.2025Hammarby3:2SiriusSweden. Allsvenskan
- 14.03.2025Hammarby4:0SiriusClub Friendlies
About the match
- 29 October · 13:30 New York
- Venue: 3Arena (Stockholm), Stokgolʹm
- Weather: 9° · precip. 0% · wind 3.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 29.10 02:10
Market confidence rests with the hosts
Hammarby are the clear 1X2 favourites, with a margin-adjusted market probability of 63.6%, against 20.3% for the draw and 16.1% for Sirius. Over the past 24 hours, the home-win price has shortened while the other two outcomes have drifted. That is a strong home preference despite the visitors’ league position and away record.
Under 3.5 goals carries a 58.8% probability and has strengthened, while Over has weakened. BTTS is assessed at 59.3%, with no notable movement. The market thus distinguishes between both attacks contributing and the match developing into a high total.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.43
- Odds at prediction
- 1.41
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 65%
- Market estimate
- 65%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match