Segunda Division: Eibar vs UD Almeria Match Prediction
Eibar
UD AlmeriaEibar host UD Almeria at Ipurua in round 12 of the Segunda Division, with three points separating third from second. The hosts have 22 points, while the visitors have 25 and trail leaders Castellon by one. Victory would bring Eibar level with Almeria; the visitors are chasing first place.
Eibar: home strength against a recent slowdown
Recent results and scoring patterns
Eibar have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five, scoring eight goals and conceding nine. After beating Las Palmas and Albacete, they took only one point from three games against Real Oviedo, Mallorca and Cordoba. The latest result was a 2:0 away defeat, their only scoring blank in that five-match stretch.
Strengths and weaknesses
- At Ipurua, three wins, one draw and one defeat have produced nine goals scored and six conceded.
- The season attack averages 1.82 goals per match, with Over 2.5 goals in seven of 11 league games.
- Four league clean sheets contrast with goals conceded in each of the last five matches; BTTS has occurred in six of 11 league fixtures.
Personnel and selection limits
Madariaga, Chzhan and Krespo Garsia F. D. each have one goal in four listed appearances. No confirmed Eibar injury update, suspension list, probable lineup or formation is available, so those names cannot be treated as a verified starting attack.
- Cordobaaway0:2
- Mallorcahome1:1
- Real Oviedoaway1:3
- Albacete Balompieaway3:1
- Las Palmashome3:2
Almeria: productive attack, extensive absences
Momentum at home and away
Almeria are unbeaten in five across all competitions, with four wins and a draw, scoring 13 and conceding six. Their latest outing was a 2:1 Copa del Rey win at UD Castellonense on 27 October, giving them a shorter recovery interval than Eibar, who last played on 24 October.
Where the visitors stand out
- Eight league wins in 11 matches accompany 22 goals scored and nine conceded, a stronger goal difference than Eibar's.
- Away league form reads three wins and two defeats, with seven goals scored and four conceded: less prolific than their overall average of two goals per game.
- Five league clean sheets and BTTS in four of 11 contrast with concessions in four of their last five across all competitions; six league games exceeded 2.5 goals.
Scorers and unavailable players
Miguel de la Fuente leads the listed scorers with five goals in four appearances; Brian Cipenga has two goals and an assist, while Sergio Arribas Calvo has one of each. Injury absentees are Alex Sola, Thalys, Gui, Leonardo Lelo, Andrey Popovich, Fernando, Leo Baptistao, Jon Morcillo, Adrian Embarba, Chumi and Aron Yaakobishvili. The list includes two goalkeepers and several attacking options; no verified starting XI, formation or suspension update is available.
- UD Castellonenseaway2:1
- Real Oviedohome2:2
- Real Sociedad IIaway4:2
- Leganeshome3:0
- Burgoshome2:1
Recent meetings favour Eibar at Ipurua
Eibar have won three of the five official meetings in the past five years, with one draw and one defeat. Both home encounters in that sequence ended 1:0, including the latest in January 2026. The five matches produced 12 goals overall; one featured BTTS and two featured Over 2.5 goals. That history is lower-scoring than either side's current league profile.
- 25.01.2026Eibar1:0UD AlmeriaSpain. Segunda Division
- 01.11.2025UD Almeria3:1EibarSpain. Segunda Division
- 07.03.2025Eibar1:0UD AlmeriaSpain. Segunda Division
- 22.09.2024UD Almeria2:2EibarSpain. Segunda Division
- 24.01.2022UD Almeria0:2EibarSpain. Segunda Division
Pre-match context without a verified expert verdict
No additional match-specific news or verified expert comments are available beyond the team availability information above.
Our pick: Almeria to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.36. Almeria have scored 22 goals in 11 league games and at least twice in each of their last five matches across all competitions. Eibar have conceded in five consecutive outings, allowing nine goals. That makes the visitors' scoring threshold a more focused option than backing them to win at Ipurua.
The main caution is Almeria's away return: seven goals in five league trips, below their overall average of two per game. According to media reports, forwards Leo Baptistao and Adrian Embarba are out injured, so attacking depth is reduced. Nevertheless, Miguel de la Fuente has five league goals in four appearances. The bet needs two away goals to win, while exactly one returns the stake; it does not require Almeria to keep a clean sheet. Predicted score: 1:2.
Final betting view
Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.36 targets Almeria's scoring rather than the match result. Their recent two-goal minimum supports that approach, with the refund at one goal offering protection if their lower away scoring rate persists.
FAQ
When does Eibar — UD Almeria kick off?
The match starts on 31.10.2026 at 11:15 (New York), Ipurua Municipal Stadium (Eibar).
What is the prediction for Eibar — UD Almeria?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.36.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Eibar win — 36%, draw — 27%, UD Almeria win — 37%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Cordobaaway0:2
- Mallorcahome1:1
- Real Oviedoaway1:3
- Albacete Balompieaway3:1
- Las Palmashome3:2
- UD Castellonenseaway2:1
- Real Oviedohome2:2
- Real Sociedad IIaway4:2
- Leganeshome3:0
- Burgoshome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellon | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22:4 | 26 |
| 2 | UD Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22:9 | 25 |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20:13 | 22 |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 22:10 | 21 |
Head-to-head
- 25.01.2026Eibar1:0UD AlmeriaSpain. Segunda Division
- 01.11.2025UD Almeria3:1EibarSpain. Segunda Division
- 07.03.2025Eibar1:0UD AlmeriaSpain. Segunda Division
- 22.09.2024UD Almeria2:2EibarSpain. Segunda Division
- 24.01.2022UD Almeria0:2EibarSpain. Segunda Division
About the match
- 31 October · 11:15 New York
- Venue: Ipurua Municipal Stadium (Eibar)
- Weather: 16° · precip. 0% · wind 1.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 31.10 07:10
A narrow away lean in the market
Almeria are marginal favourites: the margin-free market probability of an away win is 37.2%, against 35.6% for Eibar and 27.3% for a draw. The small gap signals a closely balanced 1X2 market rather than strong confidence in the visitors. No significant movement has occurred over the past 24 hours.
The goals markets lean towards scoring at both ends: BTTS is assessed at 60.1%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 56%. Those expectations sit above the recent head-to-head pattern, but both teams have conceded regularly in their latest fixtures.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.36
- Odds at prediction
- 1.38
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 67%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match