Burgos — Castellon match prediction: Segunda Division analysis
Burgos
CastellonMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.36 lost
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.28 lost
Match result
Burgos 1:1 Castellon (1:1, 0:0)
The Spain Segunda Division match between Burgos and Castellon ended in a 1:1 draw. Both goals were scored in the first half (1:1), while the second half ended 0:0. Our prediction for this fixture was Individual Total 2 Over (1). As Castellon scored one goal, the bet was void.
Our prediction: Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.32 — the bet was void.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.36 — the bet lost.
Burgos host Castellon at El Plantio in round 12 of the Segunda Division on November 1. The hosts are sixth with 20 points, six behind the leaders. Castellon are level on points with Almeria but have played one match fewer; Mallorca are one point behind Burgos.
Burgos: home strength meets an attacking absence
Three wins after consecutive defeats
Burgos followed losses to Almeria and Granada with victories over Sabadell, Andorra and Laredo. Across those five matches they scored nine and conceded seven. The latest cup win produced four goals, but they conceded none against Sabadell and two against Andorra.
Home results and defensive trade-offs
Burgos have four home wins, one draw and one defeat, with 10 goals scored and six conceded. Their league averages are 1.45 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game. BTTS and Over 2.5 have each landed in six of 11 matches, while Burgos have kept three clean sheets.
Absences narrow the options
Jon Karrikaburu is out with a torn hamstring; David Gonzalez and Santiago Lenchina are also injured. Kevin Appin is expected to return. Karrikaburu has two league goals in four appearances, while Javier Llabres has two assists in four appearances.
- Laredoaway4:2
- Andorra Andorra la Vellaaway3:2
- Sabadellhome1:0
- Granadahome0:1
- UD Almeriaaway1:2
Castellon: the leaders combine scoring with control
A response built on clean sheets
After drawing with Ceuta and losing at Andorra, Castellon beat Las Palmas, Sporting Gijon and Conquense without conceding. Their five-match return is 11 goals scored and two allowed. The three successive wins include two league fixtures, extending the defensive sequence beyond the cup tie.
Away efficiency underpins first place
Castellon have won five of six league away games, scoring 10 and conceding three. Their overall record is eight wins, two draws and one defeat, with 22 goals scored and four conceded. They have kept seven clean sheets; BTTS has landed in three of 11 matches, and five exceeded 2.5 goals. Castellon have often scored without conceding.
Returns subject to final fitness checks
Ousmane Camara and Juanjo Nieto are returning after around a month out, while Alberto Jimenez is expected to be available. Fran Castillo remains sidelined with a right hamstring problem. Pablo Hernandez said returning players would be assessed after the final training session. Suero has three goals in four league appearances.
- UB Conquenseaway3:0
- Sporting de Gijonhome4:0
- Las Palmasaway3:0
- Andorra Andorra la Vellaaway0:1
- AD Ceutahome1:1
Recent meetings favour the visitors
Castellon have three wins and one draw from four official meetings over the past five years, with an aggregate score of 7–2. Burgos failed to score in both home encounters, losing 0–2 before drawing 0–0. BTTS landed in both matches at Castellon, making the venue split more relevant than the combined four-game record.
- 18.04.2026Castellon3:1BurgosSpain. Segunda Division
- 10.11.2025Burgos0:0CastellonSpain. Segunda Division
- 01.03.2025Castellon2:1BurgosSpain. Segunda Division
- 01.09.2024Burgos0:2CastellonSpain. Segunda Division
- 05.12.1993Castellon0:0BurgosSpain. Segunda Division
Coaches focus on possession and workload
Sergio Francisco wants Burgos to sustain longer spells on the ball rather than allow Castellon to dictate play. Hernandez highlighted the hosts’ intensity and defensive organisation while acknowledging the effect of the schedule on workload management. Burgos have appealed registration restrictions linked to a disputed international transaction; the club says daily operations continue normally.
Line-ups
Burgos
Starting XI: 2. Alejandro Lizancos Saldana, 4. Pablo Galdames, 8. Gregorio Sierra, 9. Alex Fores, 12. Unai Vencedor, 13. Ander Cantero, 15. Oier Luengo, 16. Francisco Sanchez, 19. Javier Llabres, 22. Brais Martinez, 23. Alberto Dadie Izaguirre
Substitutes: 1. Bruno Iribarne, 3. Ignasi Vilarrasa, 5. Marcelo Exposito Jimenez, 6. Sergio Gonzalez Martinez, 10. Kevin Appin, 11. Victor Mollejo, 17. Mario Cantero Marino, 18. Saul del Cerro, 20. Jose Gragera, 21. Fermin Garcia Murillo, 31. Irian Ribas, 36. Ivan Martinez Ruiz
Coach: Sergio Francisco
Castellon
Starting XI: 4. Agustin Sienra, 5. Alberto Jimenez, 6. Matias Orozco, 8. Diego Barri, 10. Israel Suero, 13. Romain Matthys, 14. Inigo Cordoba, 16. Adam Jakobsen, 18. Pablo Santiago, 21. Alvaro, 22. Jeremy Mellot
Substitutes: 1. Amir Saipi, 2. Juan Pablo Nieto, 7. Raul Sanchez, 11. Federico Ceccherini, 12. Lucas Alcazar, 15. Ilias Kostis, 20. Martin Conde Gomez, 23. Alvaro Garcia, 24. David Muale Nzanza, 25. Jari Vlak, 26. Rodrigo Rego, 27. Antonio Gala
Coach: Pablo Hernandez
Our pick: Castellon to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.32. Castellon average 2 goals per league match and have scored at least three in each of their last three outings across all competitions. The selection targets their attacking output rather than requiring an away win: two goals secure a winning bet, while exactly one returns the stake.
Burgos have conceded twice in each of their last two matches, leaving room for the visitors to reach that threshold. Jon Karrikaburu's hamstring injury also removes an attacking outlet for the hosts, potentially making sustained possession harder. Castellon scored at least twice in three of the four recent meetings, although the goalless exception warns against treating this as certain. A likely score is 1–2.
Final verdict
Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.32 is preferable to tying the bet to the match result. Burgos have won four of six home league games, so the protection at one away goal matters against a competitive host.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Laredoaway4:2
- Andorra Andorra la Vellaaway3:2
- Sabadellhome1:0
- Granadahome0:1
- UD Almeriaaway1:2
- UB Conquenseaway3:0
- Sporting de Gijonhome4:0
- Las Palmasaway3:0
- Andorra Andorra la Vellaaway0:1
- AD Ceutahome1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellon | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 | UD Almeria | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 | Granada | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 | Sporting de Gijon | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 6 | Girona | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 7 | Burgos | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 8 | Mallorca | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 13:6 | 19 |
Head-to-head
- 18.04.2026Castellon3:1BurgosSpain. Segunda Division
- 10.11.2025Burgos0:0CastellonSpain. Segunda Division
- 01.03.2025Castellon2:1BurgosSpain. Segunda Division
- 01.09.2024Burgos0:2CastellonSpain. Segunda Division
- 05.12.1993Castellon0:0BurgosSpain. Segunda Division
About the match
- 1 November · 12:30 New York
- Venue: Polideportivo El Plantio (Burgos)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Away favouritism, but no majority outcome
The 1X2 market favours Castellon, although their 45.5% probability remains below half. Burgos are assigned 26.9% and the draw 27.6%. No notable movement has occurred over the past 24 hours.
Over 2.5 has a narrow market edge at 53.1%, while BTTS is assessed at 57.4%. This expectation of goals at both ends contrasts with Castellon’s low season-long BTTS frequency and Burgos’s scoreless home meetings with these visitors. Burgos’s recent scoring offsets that trend, but their absences weaken the comparison.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.37
- Odds at prediction
- 1.32
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 70%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.37
- Potential win
- 37 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.3
- Status
- void
- Profit
- +0 $