UE Tavernes vs Valencia: Copa del Rey Match Prediction
UE Tavernes
ValenciaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (2.5) 1.27 void
UE Tavernes and Valencia meet at Mestalla in the opening round of the Copa del Rey. The tie pits a lower-division side against a La Liga opponent. Tavernes are playing the biggest match in their history after reaching the round of 128 for the first time. Valencia need a result after a four-match winless run and can restore confidence in the knockout competition.
UE Tavernes: compact defence and growing cup momentum
Tavernes are unbeaten in their last two matches: a draw away to UD Maracena was followed by a home win against the same opponent. They scored in both matches, conceded once across the two games and kept a clean sheet in the latest fixture. Their tournament record is two wins and one draw, with five goals scored and two conceded. At home, the same three-match record shows five goals for and two against.
What Tavernes can use against the favourite
- They have scored in both of their latest matches.
- They kept clean sheets in two of their three tournament games.
- The tournament record contains two wins and no defeats.
- Both teams scored in only one of those three cup matches, while matches above two total goals occurred once.
Tavernes average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per tournament match. Their main strength is defensive organisation, while attacking volume against a much stronger opponent is the concern. The match is officially at Mestalla.
Squad information
The club are making their first appearance at this stage after progressing from the Maracena tie on penalties following two low-scoring matches.
- UD Maracenahome1:0
- UD Maracenaaway1:1
Valencia: superior class, but unstable recent results
Valencia’s last five matches produced one win, two draws and two defeats. They scored in four of those games and conceded in three, with the latest result a home loss to Villarreal. That sequence included a 2:3 defeat to Real Sociedad and a draw away to Racing de Santander. The clean sheet at Alaves and the goalless draw with Athletic Bilbao show that the defence can control matches, but the recent run lacks consistency.
Quality edge and points of pressure
- Valencia scored in four of their last five matches.
- The latest five-match record contains one win, two draws and two defeats.
- In the cup, they have one win and one defeat, with three goals scored and two conceded.
Valencia won their only listed away cup match. Their overall cup average is 1.5 goals scored and one conceded per match; both teams scored in one of two fixtures, and a clean sheet was recorded once. Their greater technical level should bring more possession and territory, while recent defensive concessions point to a controlled start rather than a reckless attacking approach.
Squad information
Midfielder Sergi Canos is unavailable after suffering a cruciate ligament rupture and is not expected back before January. Javier Aguirre is Valencia’s head coach after replacing Carlos Corberan. No further confirmed injuries, suspensions or starting-lineup details are available.
Head-to-head record
UE Tavernes and Valencia have no recorded previous meetings, so there is no head-to-head scoring or win-rate pattern to apply.
- Villarrealhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaohome0:0
- Racing de Santanderaway2:2
- Real Sociedadhome2:3
- Deportivo Alavesaway1:0
Team news, motivation and outside views
Tavernes have reached this stage for the first time in club history. Their route through the earlier round included a penalty-shootout success against Maracena after draws in both meetings, highlighting their defensive discipline and ability to stay competitive in close cup ties.
Valencia are enduring a difficult season and have gone four matches without a win. The cup tie against a lower-division opponent offers a chance to rebuild confidence, but Canos’ absence removes one midfield option. No expert match prediction or additional confirmed squad information is available.
Prediction
UE Tavernes face Valencia at Mestalla in the Copa del Rey first round. The hosts are entering the main draw for the first time; the visitors are seeking a response to a difficult league run. Our selection is BTTS (both teams to score) - No 1.24.
Tavernes have conceded 2 goals in 3 cup matches, keeping 2 clean sheets and scoring 5 goals. Their latest two games against UD Maracena finished 1:1 and 1:0, with neither side scoring more than once in either match.
Valencia have the division advantage and won their only away cup match 2:0. Sergi Canos is out with a cruciate ligament injury. Javier Aguirre’s side are winless in four matches but have kept two clean sheets in their last five, making their defensive record a stronger argument for this selection than their recent results.
The market assigns a 74.6% probability to both teams not scoring. The most likely score is 0:2.
Conclusion
BTTS (both teams to score) - No 1.24 is the selection, with Valencia keeping a clean sheet the expected route to the bet winning.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- UD Maracenahome1:0
- UD Maracenaaway1:1
- Villarrealhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaohome0:0
- Racing de Santanderaway2:2
- Real Sociedadhome2:3
- Deportivo Alavesaway1:0
About the match
- 28 October · 16:00 New York
- Venue: Mestalla (Valencia)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and goal-line signals
The market treats Valencia as the clear favourite because of the division gap, stronger squad depth and the club’s cup away win. The estimated probability of both teams scoring is low, with the opposing outcome the dominant market position. That reading fits Tavernes’ tournament profile: they have conceded only twice in three matches and registered two clean sheets.
The high total-goal line is priced close to balance, with the over side slightly preferred, but its probability has weakened during the last day. The under side has also seen its price move in a direction indicating less confidence, leaving the goal line broadly divided rather than strongly one-sided. The BTTS market has moved more clearly toward “No”, while the price for “Yes” has shortened, signalling a small recent increase in support for Tavernes to score.
Our prediction
- Market
- Both Teams To Score - No
- Odds
- 1.24
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 75%
- Market estimate
- 70%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.24
- Potential win
- 24 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.33
- Status
- void
- Profit
- +0 $