CD Tarancon vs Levante UD Prediction: Copa del Rey Preview
CD Tarancon
Levante UDMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1.5) 1.44 void
CD Tarancon host Levante UD at Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón on 28 October for a place in the second round of the Copa del Rey. Kick-off is scheduled for 14:00 America/New_York time.
CD Tarancon: scoring consistency meets a higher standard
Recent results and the home-away split
Tarancon’s last five matches produced three wins and two draws, with 12 goals scored and six conceded. They beat Guadalajara II, Socuellamos and Quintanar del Rey, drawing with Marchamalo and, most recently, Villarrubia.
Their two home games produced two goals scored and one conceded, against ten scored and five conceded away. That split limits the relevance of their overall scoring return to this home cup tie.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
- Tarancon scored in all five matches, rather than relying solely on the six-goal performance at Guadalajara II.
- BTTS occurred in four games; the sole clean sheet came against Socuellamos.
- Both home matches stayed below three total goals, while every away fixture produced three or more.
Personnel and preparation
Jorge Canete’s side enter on a six-match unbeaten run overall. No confirmed squad list, likely formation, key-player assessment, injury update or suspension information is available for Tarancon.
- Villarrubia CFhome1:1
- Quintanar del Reyaway2:1
- UD Socuellamoshome1:0
- Marchamaloaway2:2
- Guadalajara IIaway6:2
Levante UD: attacking output masks defensive exposure
A mixed sequence against top-flight opponents
Levante’s last five games brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with nine goals scored and ten conceded. They lost at Villarreal, drew with Sevilla and Deportivo de A Coruna, beat Athletic Bilbao and then lost at Real Sociedad.
That La Liga opposition differs sharply from Tarancon’s Tercera Division RFEF schedule: the hosts’ better results do not establish greater team strength. League positions and numerical strength comparisons are unavailable.
Where the recent numbers matter
- Levante scored exactly once in each of their three away games, collecting one draw and two defeats.
- They conceded in all five fixtures, with BTTS occurring every time.
- Three matches exceeded three total goals, while their two home appearances supplied six of their nine goals.
Absences and planned changes
Bardeli and De la Fuente are expected to miss the match through injury. Luis Castro has confirmed plans to rotate because of fatigue and the congested calendar, with only three days separating this tie from Sunday’s Real Sociedad game. Rotation reduces the relevance of recent league performances to the cup lineup; no probable starting eleven, formation or suspension update is confirmed.
- Real Sociedadaway1:2
- Athletic Bilbaohome3:1
- Deportivo de A Corunaaway1:1
- Sevillahome3:3
- Villarrealaway1:3
Match conditions and the limits of pre-match opinion
The forecast is dry at 17°C, with wind of 1.1 m/s and gusts up to 2.8 m/s, suggesting little disruption to passing or crossing. No further match-specific news is available.
Our scoring pick
With a second-round place at stake in Tarancón, our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (2.5) 1.45. Levante scored three against both Sevilla and Athletic Bilbao: they have recently reached this threshold against top-flight opposition. Facing a Tercera Division RFEF side offers a better opportunity to create enough chances, without requiring the hosts to contribute to the score.
The caution is Levante’s away output: just one goal in each of their last three trips. The coach has confirmed rotation, while Bardeli and De la Fuente are unavailable through injury, according to media reports. This is therefore a bet on the drop in opposition level, rather than proven away scoring volume. Tarancon conceded in four of their last five games against lower-tier opponents, leaving a route for Levante to reach three despite the changes. Projected score: 1-3.
Final position
Individual Total 2 Over (2.5) 1.45 is our selection, with the divisional gap outweighing the visitors’ modest recent away returns. Rotation makes this a measured pick, not a certainty.
Team form
- Villarrubia CFhome1:1
- Quintanar del Reyaway2:1
- UD Socuellamoshome1:0
- Marchamaloaway2:2
- Guadalajara IIaway6:2
- Real Sociedadaway1:2
- Athletic Bilbaohome3:1
- Deportivo de A Corunaaway1:1
- Sevillahome3:3
- Villarrealaway1:3
About the match
- 28 October · 14:00 New York
- Venue: Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón (Tarancón)
Odds
odds before kick-off
A clear favourite, with a softer market position
Levante remain the clear 1X2 favourite, with a margin-free away-win probability of 85.9%. Over the past 24 hours, the line has moved towards Tarancon and the draw without reversing the market hierarchy.
Over 3.5 carries a 54% probability, but movement has favoured Under. BTTS has also attracted support, although BTTS — No remains the more likely market outcome. The market is more decisive on Levante’s strength than on a high-scoring game or a clean sheet.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (2.5)
- Odds
- 1.45
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 64%
- Market estimate
- 63%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.45
- Potential win
- 45 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.47
- Status
- void
- Profit
- +0 $