Anaitasuna vs Deportivo Alaves Match Forecast for Copa del Rey
Anaitasuna
Deportivo AlavesMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1.5) 1.27 void
Anaitasuna host Deportivo Alaves at Anaitasuna stadium in Azkoitia on 28 October for a place in the next round of the Copa del Rey.
Anaitasuna: scoring momentum with defensive caveats
Recent results and the home-away split
Anaitasuna beat Tedeon 5:0 at home on 26 September and 5:2 away on 3 October. Their three earlier results were a 1:3 defeat at Deportivo Alaves III, a 2:1 home win over Anorga KKE and a 2:3 loss at Basconia. Those fixtures date from May 2024, so this is not a continuous five-match run of current form. Both home appearances ended in wins; the three away games produced one victory and two defeats.
Attacking output versus defensive exposure
Anaitasuna scored 15 goals and conceded nine across those fixtures, scoring in every game. All five finished with more than 2.5 goals; BTTS (both teams to score) occurred in four, with one clean sheet. The wins against Tedeon show recent attacking output, but the return fixture also exposed defensive weaknesses. That scoring rate cannot simply be extended to top-flight opposition.
Selection and individual roles
No confirmed squad news, injuries, suspensions, likely formation or key-player updates are available for Anaitasuna. Whether the same attacking personnel will start is unconfirmed.
- Tedeonaway5:2
- Tedeonhome5:0
- Basconiaaway2:3
- Anorga KKEhome2:1
- Deportivo Alaves IIIaway1:3
Deportivo Alaves: stronger status, limited recent output
A winless league sequence
Alaves lost 0:1 to Valencia, drew 0:0 at Athletic Bilbao, suffered 1:2 defeats against Atletico Madrid and Celta, then drew 1:1 with Malaga. Their five-match winless league sequence comprises two draws and three defeats, with three goals scored and six conceded. Two away appearances yielded one point and one goal; at home, they collected one point from three games. All faced top-flight opposition, unlike Anaitasuna's recent cup fixtures.
Low scoring and narrow margins
Alaves failed to score in two of those five matches and never scored more than once. BTTS occurred in three, only two games exceeded 2.5 goals, and the Athletic fixture supplied their sole clean sheet. All three defeats came by a single goal: limited attacking output, rather than heavy losses, defines this sequence.
League positions and a numerical comparison of the teams' strength are unavailable, leaving the competitive gap unquantified.
Team-sheet uncertainty
No confirmed injuries, suspensions, probable lineup or formation are available for Alaves. The cup setting alone does not establish that they will rotate, and no named player's availability is confirmed.
- Malagahome1:1
- Celtaaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:0
- Valenciahome0:1
No verified pre-match updates
There are no fresh match-specific news items or expert comments, including confirmed statements about selection priorities or motivation.
Our forecast
Our bet is Handicap 2 (-2.5) 1.29. The key factor is the gap in competitive level: Anaitasuna play in a regional league, while Deportivo Alaves operate in La Liga, with a clear advantage in individual quality, match tempo and physical preparation. Anaitasuna conceded two goals in the away leg.
Alaves have not won their last five league matches, yet they faced Valencia, Athletic Bilbao, Atletico Madrid and Celta during that run. Their six goals conceded across those games are not enough to offset the difference in class against a regional opponent. The market assigns Alaves a 91.4% probability of victory, and support for the away win has strengthened over the last 24 hours. No fresh match-specific information on injuries, suspensions or confirmed line-ups is available. Expected score: 0:3.
Conclusion
Handicap 2 (-2.5) 1.29 is the preferred selection. Alaves should turn their superiority in level and physical resources into a victory by at least three goals, despite their recent winless league sequence.
Team form
- Tedeonaway5:2
- Tedeonhome5:0
- Basconiaaway2:3
- Anorga KKEhome2:1
- Deportivo Alaves IIIaway1:3
- Malagahome1:1
- Celtaaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:0
- Valenciahome0:1
About the match
- 28 October · 14:00 New York
- Venue: Anaitasuna (Azkoitia)
Odds
odds before kick-off
A clear favourite, a less settled goal market
The margin-adjusted 1X2 market assigns Alaves a 91.4% probability of victory despite their league results. Over the last 24 hours, support has strengthened for both an away win and the much less likely home win, while the draw has weakened. The bookmaker's 9.1% margin prevents the unadjusted prices from being read as direct probability estimates.
The Over/Under 4.5 goals market is closer: Under holds 53.1%, although movement has favoured Over. BTTS No remains preferred at 72.3%, while support has shifted towards BTTS Yes.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (-2.5)
- Odds
- 1.29
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 70%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.29
- Potential win
- 29 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.28
- Status
- void
- Profit
- +0 $