K League 1 Forecast: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju SK
Pohang Steelers
Jeju SKMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (0.5) 1.27 lost
Match result
Pohang Steelers 1:1 Jeju SK (1:1, 0:0)
The South Korea K League 1 match between Pohang Steelers and Jeju SK ended in a 1:1 draw. The teams scored both goals in the first period (1:1), followed by a goalless second period (0:0). Our prediction for this fixture was Individual Total 2 Over (0.5), and the bet won.
Our prediction: Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) at 1.31 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (0.5) at 1.27 — the bet lost.
Pohang Steelers host Jeju SK at Steel Yard on November 1 in round 34 of the K League 1 relegation round. Ninth-placed Pohang have 42 points.
Pohang: home scoring remains the obstacle
Recent results and scoring pattern
Pohang are winless in five matches across all competitions, with two draws and three defeats. Their only goals came in the 2:2 draw at Ulsan; the latest outing ended in a 3:0 loss at Kashima on October 28. Their two home games in that sequence produced a defeat against Darul Takzim and a draw against Anyang, without a goal scored.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- Eleven league clean sheets show an ability to keep opponents out, despite the recent defensive slide.
- Only six goals in 14 home league matches leave little margin for conceding first.
- The home record is four wins, four draws and six defeats, with 11 goals conceded.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 have each occurred in just 12 of 33 league matches.
Selection and recovery time
The trip to Japan makes recovery relevant.
- Kashima Antlersaway0:3
- Ulsan Hyundaiaway2:2
- Anyanghome0:0
- Darul Takzimhome0:2
- Incheon Unitedaway0:3
Jeju: regular goals, deteriorating defending
Five away games reveal the imbalance
Jeju have lost three consecutive matches, against Seoul, Jeonbuk and Incheon. Across their last five outings, all away, they recorded one win and one draw alongside those defeats. They scored in every game.
Where the visitors have an edge
- Seven wins in 16 away league matches compare favourably with Pohang's home return.
- Jeju have scored 21 and conceded 19 on their league travels.
- The season attack averages 1.18 goals per match, against Pohang's 0.91.
- BTTS has occurred in 19 of 33 league games; 15 have finished Over 2.5.
Availability and the coach's choices
Negueba is suspended following his dismissal against Incheon on October 24. Kwon Ki-min and Lee Chang-min both appeared in that match. Sergio Costa has stressed choosing players who improve competitiveness rather than focusing exclusively on injured absentees.
- Incheon Unitedaway1:3
- Jeonbuk Hyundai Motorsaway2:3
- Seoulaway1:2
- Gangwonaway1:0
- Bucheon 1995away2:2
Recent meetings temper Pohang's historical advantage
Pohang lead the last 15 official meetings with eight wins, two draws and five losses. This season, though, Jeju have won two of the three encounters: 2:0 at Steel Yard and 2:1 at home. Pohang took the latest meeting 2:1 away in August. Five of the last eight meetings featured BTTS and finished Over 2.5, a more open pattern than Pohang's current league scoring profile.
- 25.08.2026Jeju SK1:2Pohang SteelersSouth Korea. K League 1
- 18.07.2026Jeju SK2:1Pohang SteelersSouth Korea. K League 1
- 11.04.2026Pohang Steelers0:2Jeju SKSouth Korea. K League 1
- 21.09.2025Pohang Steelers1:0Jeju SKSouth Korea. K League 1
- 21.06.2025Pohang Steelers2:1Jeju SKSouth Korea. K League 1
Final B brings a change of emphasis
Costa expressed disappointment after the Incheon defeat consigned Jeju to Final B, while pointing to progress over previous seasons. The immediate task is now protecting their position within the lower group rather than pursuing the championship round. No independent expert assessment of this fixture is available.
Line-ups
Pohang Steelers
Starting XI: 4. Min-Kwang Jeon, 8. Kim Seung-ho, 9. An Jae-joon, 11. Paulo da Rocha Junior, 13. Kang Min-Jun, 16. Kim Dong-jin, 17. Shin Kwang-Hoon, 20. Park Chan-yong, 21. Hwang In-Jae, 25. Jorge Filipe Avelino Teixeira, 77. Wanderson
Substitutes: 1. Pyeong-guk Yun, 3. Kim Ye-Sung, 10. Jakob Tranziska, 18. Chul-Soon Choi, 22. Gwang-won Kim, 31. Kento Nishiya, 33. Jo Sung-Wook, 37. Han-Min Jung, 40. Ki Sung-yueng
Coach: Park Tae-ha
Jeju SK
Starting XI: 1. Kim Dong-Jun, 2. Tobias Figueiredo, 7. Chang-Jun Park, 8. Chang-Min Lee, 18. Shin-Jin Kim, 22. Eraldo Cinari, 33. Su-bin Park, 40. Kim Ryun-Sung, 41. Kim Jae-woo, 47. Jae-min Park, 94. Emerson Ramon Bezerra Oliveira
Substitutes: 6. Gi-min Kwon, 11. Shin Sang-Eun, 13. Jeong Woon, 23. Chang-Woo Rim, 24. Byung-wook Choi, 30. Gu B., 55. Dong-hwi Kang, 71. Kim Tae-Hwan, 81. Ja-ung Heo
Coach: Sergio Costa
Our Prediction
The recommended bet is Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) за 1.31. Jeju SK have scored in all five of their latest matches in all competitions, producing 7 goals in that sequence. Their away record in the league is also productive: 21 goals in 16 matches, an average of 1.31 per game. That output is sufficient for a single-goal team total even against a Pohang side playing at home.
Pohang Steelers have conceded in four of their last five matches, allowing 10 goals overall. Their defensive record across the season is 39 goals conceded in 33 league fixtures, while Jeju have scored 39. The hosts’ recent attacking form is weak, with only 2 goals in those five games, so the stronger angle is Jeju’s ability to find one goal rather than predicting the match winner. In the three meetings this season, Jeju scored twice in two matches, including a 2:0 win at Steel Yard. The likely score is 1:1.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) за 1.31 is supported by Jeju SK’s five-match scoring streak, 21 away goals in the league and Pohang’s goals conceded in four of five recent fixtures.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Kashima Antlersaway0:3
- Ulsan Hyundaiaway2:2
- Anyanghome0:0
- Darul Takzimhome0:2
- Incheon Unitedaway0:3
- Incheon Unitedaway1:3
- Jeonbuk Hyundai Motorsaway2:3
- Seoulaway1:2
- Gangwonaway1:0
- Bucheon 1995away2:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jeju SK | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 40:38 | 47 |
| 8 | Anyang | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 42:49 | 46 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 31:40 | 43 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu | 34 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 34:42 | 35 |
| 11 | Bucheon 1995 | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 33:49 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 31:70 | 22 |
Head-to-head
- 25.08.2026Jeju SK1:2Pohang SteelersSouth Korea. K League 1
- 18.07.2026Jeju SK2:1Pohang SteelersSouth Korea. K League 1
- 11.04.2026Pohang Steelers0:2Jeju SKSouth Korea. K League 1
- 21.09.2025Pohang Steelers1:0Jeju SKSouth Korea. K League 1
- 21.06.2025Pohang Steelers2:1Jeju SKSouth Korea. K League 1
About the match
- 1 November · 01:00 New York
- Venue: Steel Yard (Pohang)
Odds
odds before kick-off
A narrow away lean, with totals priced cautiously
The 1X2 market makes Jeju only marginal favourites: their win probability is 35.5%, against 34.3% for Pohang and 30.2% for the draw. That small separation reflects a contest without a clear market leader. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
Under 2.5 carries a 56.6% probability, while BTTS is almost evenly divided, with Yes at 50.3%. The distinction matters: Jeju's recent scoring sequence does not necessarily imply a high total when Pohang's home attack has been so limited.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (0.5)
- Odds
- 1.31
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 70%
- Market estimate
- 70%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.31
- Potential win
- 31 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.31
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +31 $