Udinese Calcio vs Milan: Serie A Match Prediction
Udinese Calcio
MilanUdinese host Milan at Bluenergy Stadium on 25 October in Serie A’s eighth round. The hosts sit 16th with four points, while fourth-placed Milan are four points behind leaders Inter. Udinese need distance from the lower positions; Milan need to maintain contact with the leading group after a European setback.
Udinese: home attack offers little protection
Recent results and venue split
Udinese’s last five matches brought four defeats and a friendly draw. Their latest league outings were a 2:1 loss at Torino and a 3:0 home defeat by Lecce. At home this season, they have collected one draw and three defeats, scoring twice and conceding seven. Their attacking output away has therefore been considerably higher, without resolving the defensive problems.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- Nine league goals in seven matches show some attacking capacity, but only two have come at home.
- Sixteen conceded means an average of 2.29 per game, with no clean sheets.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have each occurred in five of seven league fixtures; this remains a small sample.
Availability and selection
David Alaba will miss the match with a muscular injury to his right calf, suffered on his Serie A debut for Udinese. Jurgen Ekkelenkamp has one league goal in two appearances.
- Leccehome0:3
- Torinoaway1:2
- Pogon Szczecinaway1:1
- Cagliari Calciohome0:1
- Internazionale Milanoaway3:5
Milan: unbeaten domestically, less decisive away
Form across two competitions
Milan have three wins, a draw and a defeat in their last five matches. The sequence includes a 4:0 victory over Salzburg and a 3:2 win against Atalanta, followed by Thursday’s 3:0 defeat at Bournemouth. The trip to Udine comes three days after that European fixture, making recovery a relevant selection issue.
Where the advantage narrows
- Four wins and three draws leave Milan unbeaten in seven Serie A matches, averaging two goals scored and one conceded.
- Away from home, they have one win and three draws, with six goals for and five against.
- Only two league clean sheets accompany five BTTS results; Over 2.5 goals has occurred four times.
Several absences affect the options
According to media reports, Adrien Rabiot, Diego Moreira, Mario Gila, Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers are unavailable through injury. Rabiot’s absence removes a player with two goals and an assist in two league appearances; Gila has scored once and Moreira has supplied an assist. Ruben Amorim must adjust without several contributors rather than simply rotate after Europe.
- Bournemouthaway0:3
- Atalantahome3:2
- FC Salzburghome4:0
- Sassuolo Calcioaway1:1
- Leccehome3:0
Recent meetings pull in opposite directions
Milan have won five of the ten official meetings over the past five years, against three Udinese wins and two draws. Milan won their last three visits to Udine, but Udinese took the latest meeting 3:0 in Milan in April. The longer record favours the visitors without making the most recent result fit that pattern.
- 11.04.2026Milan0:3Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 20.09.2025Udinese Calcio0:3MilanItaly. Serie A
- 11.04.2025Udinese Calcio0:4MilanItaly. Serie A
- 19.10.2024Milan1:0Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 20.01.2024Udinese Calcio2:3MilanItaly. Serie A
Pressure extends to both benches
Udinese supporters demanded changes after the Lecce defeat, while Ekkelenkamp described the performance as unacceptable and highlighted excessive errors. Kosta Runjaic’s position has come under threat. At Milan, reports describe owner Gerry Cardinale’s dissatisfaction following the Europa League loss. These are pressures surrounding selection and preparation, not evidence of an automatic reaction on the pitch.
Our prediction: focus on Milan’s goals
Our pick for Milan’s visit to Udinese is Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.29. Milan have scored 14 goals in seven Serie A matches, averaging 2 per game, while Udinese have conceded 16, an average of 2.29, without a clean sheet. That pairing makes the visitors’ scoring output a better target than a bet requiring them to win.
The away split calls for restraint: Milan have scored six times in four league trips, below their overall rate. According to media reports, Adrien Rabiot and Diego Moreira are injured and unavailable, reducing their attacking options, while Udinese will be without David Alaba. The hosts have conceded seven goals in four home fixtures, so two Milan goals remain a credible target despite those absences. A likely score is 1:2.
Final betting verdict
Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.29 returns the stake if Milan score exactly once and wins if they score at least twice. That protection matters given their lower away scoring rate and missing contributors.
FAQ
When does Udinese Calcio — Milan kick off?
The match starts on 25.10.2026 at 15:45 (New York), Bluenergy Stadium (Udine).
What is the prediction for Udinese Calcio — Milan?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.29.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Udinese Calcio win — 21%, draw — 26%, Milan win — 53%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Leccehome0:3
- Torinoaway1:2
- Pogon Szczecinaway1:1
- Cagliari Calciohome0:1
- Internazionale Milanoaway3:5
- Bournemouthaway0:3
- Atalantahome3:2
- FC Salzburghome4:0
- Sassuolo Calcioaway1:1
- Leccehome3:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | 17 |
| 5 | Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 6 | Frosinone Calcio | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 15 | Monza 1912 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | 7 |
| 16 | Udinese Calcio | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9:16 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:13 | 4 |
Head-to-head
- 11.04.2026Milan0:3Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 20.09.2025Udinese Calcio0:3MilanItaly. Serie A
- 11.04.2025Udinese Calcio0:4MilanItaly. Serie A
- 19.10.2024Milan1:0Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 20.01.2024Udinese Calcio2:3MilanItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 25 October · 15:45 New York
- Venue: Bluenergy Stadium (Udine)
- Weather: 9° · precip. 0% · wind 1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 25.10 02:20
Milan remain favourites as confidence eases
The margin-free 1X2 assessment gives Milan a 54.8% chance, the draw 25.3% and Udinese 20%. Over the last 24 hours, the away-win line has lengthened while the home-win and draw lines have shortened: Milan retain favouritism, but support has shifted away from them.
The goals markets are almost balanced: Over 2.5 is assessed at 50.5%, while BTTS sits at 52%, with neither line showing a notable move. That pricing separates Milan’s stronger league record from any firm expectation of a high-scoring match.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.29
- Odds at prediction
- 1.27
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 74%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.27
- Potential win
- 27 $
- Status
- pending
