Serie A Match Prediction: Udinese Calcio vs Lecce
Udinese Calcio
LecceUdinese host Lecce at Bluenergy Stadium in Udine in Serie A’s seventh round on 18 October. The hosts are 15th with 4 points, while the visitors are 13th.
Udinese: scoring has not repaired the defence
Recent results and home output
Udinese have lost four of their last five matches, with the only draw coming in a friendly against Pogon Szczecin. That run ended with a 2–1 defeat at Torino.
Their three league home games have yielded a 2–4 goal balance, with scoring in Udine below their season average.
Attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses
- Udinese average 1.5 goals per league match, more than Lecce.
- They have conceded in all 6 league fixtures, averaging 2.17 goals against.
- BTTS (both teams to score) has occurred in 5 of those 6 games, while 4 finished Over 2.5.
Availability for Runjaic
Nicolo Zaniolo, Idrissa Gueye and Vakoun Bayo are unavailable. James Abankwah remains doubtful after a muscular injury and has not trained with the team. Alessandro Zanoli has recovered and could be available to Kosta Runjaic. Ekkelenkamp has one league goal from one appearance, too little involvement to establish a dependable scoring hierarchy.
- Torinoaway1:2
- Pogon Szczecinaway1:1
- Cagliari Calciohome0:1
- Internazionale Milanoaway3:5
- Laziohome1:2
Lecce: a narrow points advantage, uneven finishing
Form and away performances
Lecce have lost four of their last five games. Their sole victory was 3–2 against Monza, followed by defeats to Milan and Bologna.
Their three league away matches have produced one win and two losses, with 2 goals scored and 4 conceded.
Where their results are vulnerable
- Lecce average 1 league goal per match and have scored in 2 of their last 5 fixtures.
- They concede 2 goals per league game and have kept just 1 clean sheet in 6.
- Four league games finished Over 2.5, but only 2 featured BTTS: higher totals have not required both teams to score.
Stulic returns to contention
Nikola Stulic has resumed group training and is available. Medon Berisha and Lassana Scott have trained individually and remain doubtful. Ivan Ilic will miss the match with a muscular injury.
Fatakh has one league goal and Melo Veyga one assist, each from a single appearance; neither has established sustained individual form.
- Bologna 1909home1:2
- Milanaway0:3
- Monza 1912home3:2
- Cagliari Calcioaway0:1
- Romahome0:4
Head-to-head: Udinese lead the longer sequence
Udinese have won four of the eight official meetings over five years, with two draws and two Lecce victories. Udinese are unbeaten in the four home encounters, although Lecce won the latest meeting overall, 2–1 in February 2026. Head-to-head scoring has been lower than either side’s current league totals.
- 08.02.2026Lecce2:1Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 25.10.2025Udinese Calcio3:2LecceItaly. Serie A
- 21.02.2025Lecce0:1Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 05.10.2024Udinese Calcio1:0LecceItaly. Serie A
- 13.05.2024Lecce0:2Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
Pre-match context and preparation
Udinese’s management ordered a training retreat before this fixture following their poor start. Starting lineups and formations remain unconfirmed. The forecast is dry at 20°C, with wind of 0.6 m/s and little weather-related disruption expected.
Our pick: protection against a draw
For Udinese against Lecce, our bet is Handicap 1 (0) 1.28. Udinese have scored in four of their last five matches, compared with two for Lecce. That difference in attacking output favours the hosts, while Lecce’s two away goals across three league fixtures suggest limited scope to punish them consistently.
The draw protection matters: Udinese have no home league wins this season, scoring twice and conceding four times in three games. According to media reports, Alessandro Zanoli has recovered and could be available, while Lecce can call on Nikola Stulic again. Those returns do not erase Udinese’s defensive risk: they have yet to keep a league clean sheet in six attempts. The selection therefore backs their attacking edge without requiring a shutout. Predicted score: 2–1.
Final betting view
Handicap 1 (0) 1.28 keeps the draw covered rather than demanding Udinese turn their home record around immediately. Lecce’s modest away scoring makes that the preferable way to support the hosts.
FAQ
When does Udinese Calcio — Lecce kick off?
The match starts on 18.10.2026 at 06:30 (New York), Bluenergy Stadium (Udine).
What is the prediction for Udinese Calcio — Lecce?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) at 1.28.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Udinese Calcio win — 52%, draw — 26%, Lecce win — 21%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Torinoaway1:2
- Pogon Szczecinaway1:1
- Cagliari Calciohome0:1
- Internazionale Milanoaway3:5
- Laziohome1:2
- Bologna 1909home1:2
- Milanaway0:3
- Monza 1912home3:2
- Cagliari Calcioaway0:1
- Romahome0:4
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna 1909 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:7 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese Calcio | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9:13 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza 1912 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9:15 | 4 |
Head-to-head
- 08.02.2026Lecce2:1Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 25.10.2025Udinese Calcio3:2LecceItaly. Serie A
- 21.02.2025Lecce0:1Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 05.10.2024Udinese Calcio1:0LecceItaly. Serie A
- 13.05.2024Lecce0:2Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 18 October · 06:30 New York
- Venue: Bluenergy Stadium (Udine)
- Weather: 20° · precip. 0% · wind 0.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 17.10 10:10
Market balance: home advantage without strong certainty
Udinese are the 1X2 favourites at 50.6%, against 26.9% for the draw and 22.5% for Lecce: only a narrow majority for a home win. All listed lines have remained broadly unchanged over the last 24 hours.
Under 2.5 has a slight market edge at 52.6%, while BTTS Yes is close to even at 50.8%. These assessments contrast with the frequency of higher-scoring league games but fit the teams’ lower home and away attacking returns; six league matches per side are a small sample.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.28
- Odds at prediction
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 74%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.33
- Potential win
- 33 $
- Status
- pending
