Serie A Prediction: Sassuolo Calcio vs Lazio Match Preview
Sassuolo Calcio
LazioMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.28 won
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.36 won
Match result
Sassuolo Calcio 2:6 Lazio (2:4, 0:2)
The Italy. Serie A match between Sassuolo Calcio and Lazio ended in a 2:6 victory for the away team. The period scores were 2:4 and 0:2. Our prediction was Individual Total 2 Over (1), and the bet won as Lazio successfully scored six goals.
Our prediction: Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.31 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.28 — the bet won.
Sassuolo host Lazio at Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia on 27 October in Serie A’s ninth round. The hosts sit 14th with 8 points; Lazio are second on 22, level with leaders Inter. Sassuolo are trying to halt a slide towards the lower places, while the visitors have the chance to maintain their challenge at the top.
Sassuolo: home resilience against a defensive slide
Recent form and scoring patterns
Sassuolo’s last five matches brought one win, one draw and three defeats. The sequence includes a 3:2 victory over Juventus and a 1:1 draw with Milan, but ends with consecutive away losses to Frosinone and Como. Their home league record is stronger: two wins and a draw, with 6 goals for and 4 against.
Where the balance breaks down
The hosts average 1.5 goals scored and 2 conceded across eight league games. BTTS has landed in seven, Over 2.5 in six, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet. Scoring has often kept them competitive; conceding in every round has left little margin for an attacking blank. Eight matches remain a limited sample.
Changes up front and absentees
Alberto Aquilani is expected to start Armand Lauriente, Sebastiano Esposito and Domenico Berardi in attack. Daniel Boloca, Fede Leysen, Ismael Kone, Jay Idzes, Y. Paz and Pieragnolo are unavailable through injury. After the Frosinone defeat, Arijanet Muric, Cas Odenthal and Josh Doig were dropped to the bench.
- Comoaway0:2
- Frosinone Calcioaway2:4
- Milanhome1:1
- Monza 1912away1:2
- Juventushome3:2
Lazio: a strong away record with gaps in the squad
League momentum versus friendly results
Lazio’s latest three competitive fixtures were wins over Monza, Juventus and Parma. Their preceding results against Arezzo and Juve Stabia were friendlies and carry less weight. Across the league season, seven wins and a draw have yielded 16 goals for and just 5 against.
Efficiency at both ends
Four away fixtures have produced four victories and an aggregate score of 8:1. Lazio have kept four league clean sheets overall, while BTTS has occurred in four games and Over 2.5 in five. Their away defending is the clearest contrast with Sassuolo’s season-long difficulty preventing goals, although four trips cannot establish a long-term standard.
Unavailable players and attacking options
Alessio Furlanetto, Adam Marusic, Nicolo Rovella, Albert Gudmundsson and Andrea Pinamonti are unavailable. Pinamonti’s bronchitis removes a forward with one goal and one assist in two league appearances. Gustav Isaksen has two goals in three appearances; Nuno Tavares has a goal and an assist in three.
- Parmahome2:1
- Juventusaway3:0
- Monza 1912home3:1
- Juve Stabiahome3:3
- A.S.D. Atletico Arezzohome2:0
Previous meetings favour Lazio, but not uniformly
Lazio have won five of the eight official meetings over the past five years, with two Sassuolo wins and one draw. The hosts won the latest meeting there 1:0, before Lazio took the March 2026 return fixture 2:1.
- 09.03.2026Lazio2:1Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 14.09.2025Sassuolo Calcio1:0LazioItaly. Serie A
- 26.05.2024Lazio1:1Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 21.10.2023Sassuolo Calcio0:2LazioItaly. Serie A
- 03.05.2023Lazio2:0Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
Coaches focus on pressure and concentration
Aquilani described the recent defeats as painful and acknowledged that his side had lacked something against opponents. Gennaro Gattuso’s emphasis is on preventing overconfidence and underestimating rivals; he has also questioned whether Lazio truly belong at the summit.
Line-ups
Sassuolo Calcio
Starting XI: 3. Josh Doig, 10. Domenico Berardi, 15. Duje Caleta Car, 26. Cas Odenthal, 35. Luca Lipani, 42. Kristian Thorstvedt, 45. Armand Lauriente, 46. Simone Cinquegrano, 50. Darryl Bakola, 80. Stefano Turati, 94. Sebastiano Esposito
Substitutes: 5. Fali Cande, 6. Sebastian Walukiewicz, 7. Cristian Volpato, 8. Andrea Ghion, 9. Kieron Bowie, 12. Giacomo Satalino, 17. Vasilije Adzic, 18. Nemanja Matic, 20. Ignace Van der Brempt, 21. Jay Idzes, 25. Benjamin Dominguez, 33. Rafael Obrador, 49. Arijanet Muric, 55. Ibrahim Sulemana Kakari, 77. Nicholas Pierini
Coach: Alberto Aquilani
Lazio
Starting XI: 2. Diogo Leite, 10. Mattia Zaccagni, 11. Gustav Isaksen, 14. Tijjani Noslin, 15. Romano Floriani Mussolini, 16. Davide Frattesi, 17. Nuno Albertino Varela Tavares, 21. Reda Belahyane, 24. Kenneth Taylor, 35. Christos Mandas, 37. Josip Sutalo
Substitutes: 3. Luca Pellegrini, 5. Danilho Doekhi, 7. Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, 9. Andrea Pinamonti, 22. Matteo Cancellieri, 23. Alfonso Pedraza, 25. Oliver Provstgaard, 28. Adrian Przyborek, 29. Manuel Lazzari, 32. Danilo Cataldi, 33. Ricardo Bordon, 40. Edoardo Motta, 47. Davide Renzetti, 63. Federiko Serra, 71. Valerio Farcomeni
Coach: Gennaro Gattuso
Our pick: Lazio to score twice
Lazio visit Sassuolo at Mapei Stadium level on points with Serie A leaders Inter. Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.31: the visitors have won all four away league games, scoring eight goals. Sassuolo have conceded 16 in eight rounds without a clean sheet, making Lazio’s scoring output the focus rather than the match result.
According to media reports, Boloca, Kone, Idzes and Paz are unavailable through injury, weakening the hosts’ defensive options and midfield protection. Sassuolo’s difficulty playing through pressure offers Lazio a route to chances from turnovers. The visitors have scored at least twice in six consecutive league matches, although the absences of Pinamonti and Gudmundsson reduce their attacking options. That scoring run supports the selection, but eight rounds remain a limited sample. A plausible score is 1:2.
Betting conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.31 targets two or more Lazio goals. It avoids needing an away win against hosts still unbeaten at home in the league.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Comoaway0:2
- Frosinone Calcioaway2:4
- Milanhome1:1
- Monza 1912away1:2
- Juventushome3:2
- Parmahome2:1
- Juventusaway3:0
- Monza 1912home3:1
- Juve Stabiahome3:3
- A.S.D. Atletico Arezzohome2:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale Milano | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25:10 | 25 |
| 2 | Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22:7 | 25 |
| 3 | Roma | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 23:8 | 21 |
| 14 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 15 | Sassuolo Calcio | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14:22 | 8 |
| 16 | Monza 1912 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 16:22 | 7 |
Head-to-head
- 09.03.2026Lazio2:1Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 14.09.2025Sassuolo Calcio1:0LazioItaly. Serie A
- 26.05.2024Lazio1:1Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 21.10.2023Sassuolo Calcio0:2LazioItaly. Serie A
- 03.05.2023Lazio2:0Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 27 October · 13:30 New York
- Venue: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia), Redzho-Emiliya
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market preference stops short of certainty
Lazio are the 1X2 favourites, with a margin-free away-win probability of 44.1%, against 28.6% for Sassuolo and 27.3% for the draw. That is a clear relative advantage, but remains below an even chance. Over 2.5 is assessed at 56%, while BTTS stands at 59.6%. None of these markets has shown a notable movement over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.31
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 75%
- Market estimate
- 76%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.31
- Potential win
- 31 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.24
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +31 $