Sassuolo Calcio vs Fiorentina Prediction in Serie A
Sassuolo Calcio
FiorentinaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.25 won
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5) 1.28 void
Match result
Sassuolo Calcio 2:4 Fiorentina (1:1, 1:3)
In the Italy Serie A match between Sassuolo Calcio and Fiorentina, the away side claimed a 2:4 victory. The first half ended in a 1:1 draw, followed by a 1:3 scoreline in the second half. Following this outcome, our prediction for Individual Total 2 Over (1) won.
Our prediction: Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.32 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.25 — the bet won.
Sassuolo host Fiorentina at Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia in Serie A’s tenth round. The hosts sit 15th with eight points, three ahead of the visitors in 17th. With Parma also on five points in 18th, this meeting directly affects the gap to the relegation places.
Sassuolo: home returns meet defensive decline
Recent results and venue split
Sassuolo have taken one point from five matches. The latest result, a 6–2 home defeat by Lazio, extended their losing run to three. Their broader home record is stronger: two wins and a draw from four games, with eight scored and ten conceded.
Attacking output and defensive weaknesses
The hosts average 1.56 goals scored and 2.44 conceded in the league. BTTS has occurred in eight of nine matches, seven have exceeded 2.5 goals, and none has produced a clean sheet. Kristian Thorstvedt has two goals in three appearances. Sassuolo retain a scoring threat, but have conceded 12 times across their last three fixtures; nine league games remain a small sample.
Selection changes and absences
Fede Leysen is out with a cruciate ligament injury, Ismael Kone with tibia and fibula fractures, and Edoardo Pieragnolo lacks training fitness. Jay Idzes is also missing, while Sebastian Walukiewicz has recovered. Arijanet Muric could return in goal; Nemanja Matic and Vasilije Adzic are set to return in midfield. Kieron Bowie and Sebastiano Esposito are competing to start up front.
- Laziohome2:6
- Comoaway0:2
- Frosinone Calcioaway2:4
- Milanhome1:1
- Monza 1912away1:2
Fiorentina: regular goals without enough points
Five matches without a victory
Fiorentina’s last five games brought two draws and three defeats. They scored in every match, most recently drawing 2–2 with Atalanta after losing 2–1 at Inter. Their away league record stands at one win and three defeats, with six goals for and ten against: scoring on the road has not translated into reliable returns.
The balance between both penalty areas
Across nine league games, Fiorentina average 1.22 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. Eight matches have gone above 2.5 goals, BTTS has occurred in seven, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet. Alejandro Jimenez and Alieu Eybi Njie each have one goal and one assist in four appearances; the listed attacking contributors have not supplied a high-volume scorer.
Defensive doubts and midfield decisions
Fabiano Parisi is unavailable with a cruciate ligament injury, while Marin Pongracic has a right hamstring injury. Luca Ranieri is doubtful with a knee problem. Arthur Atta is also doubtful with a bone fissure, although there is optimism over his availability. Paolo Vanoli still has midfield decisions to resolve.
- Atalantahome2:2
- Internazionale Milanoaway1:2
- Comohome1:3
- Genoaaway1:2
- Napolihome1:1
Head-to-head: balanced overall, stronger home record
The last eight official meetings produced three wins apiece and two draws, with 25 goals in total. Sassuolo won three of the four played at their ground. Six of those eight meetings featured BTTS, although the latest ended goalless in April 2026. The historical scoring pattern therefore has a recent exception.
- 26.04.2026Fiorentina0:0Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 06.12.2025Sassuolo Calcio3:1FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
- 28.04.2024Fiorentina5:1Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 06.01.2024Sassuolo Calcio1:0FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
- 02.06.2023Sassuolo Calcio1:3FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
Coaching response takes centre stage
Alberto Aquilani has apologised for Sassuolo’s poor defending and demanded a response from his players. That makes defensive organisation the clearest stated priority before this fixture. No independent expert assessment has been supplied.
Line-ups
Sassuolo Calcio
Starting XI: 3. Josh Doig, 5. Fali Cande, 6. Sebastian Walukiewicz, 10. Domenico Berardi, 17. Vasilije Adzic, 18. Nemanja Matic, 21. Jay Idzes, 45. Armand Lauriente, 55. Ibrahim Sulemana Kakari, 80. Stefano Turati, 94. Sebastiano Esposito
Substitutes: 8. Andrea Ghion, 9. Kieron Bowie, 12. Giacomo Satalino, 14. Gabriel Kulla, 15. Duje Caleta Car, 20. Ignace Van der Brempt, 25. Benjamin Dominguez, 26. Cas Odenthal, 33. Rafael Obrador, 35. Luca Lipani, 46. Simone Cinquegrano, 49. Arijanet Muric, 50. Darryl Bakola, 70. Edoardo Pieragnolo, 77. Nicholas Pierini
Coach: Alberto Aquilani
Fiorentina
Starting XI: 3. Radu Dragusin, 4. Marco Brescianini, 17. Joao Mario Neto Lopes, 20. Alejandro Jimenez, 25. Alieu Eybi Njie, 27. Cher Ndour, 30. Franco Mastantuono, 32. Mateo Pellegrino, 33. Viery Fernandes Santos Lopes, 43. David De Gea, 44. Nicolo Fagioli
Substitutes: 2. Domilson Dodo, 19. Luca Lezzerini, 21. Victor Valdepenas, 23. Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncal, 28. Pedro Antonio Pereira Goncalves, 29. Degnand Wilfried Gnonto, 42. Christ Ravynel Inao Oulai, 53. Oliver Christensen, 70. Federico Croci, 75. Dennis Beldenti, 76. Salvatore Cianciulli
Coach: Paolo Vanoli
Our prediction: focus on Fiorentina’s goals
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.32. Sassuolo have conceded 12 goals in their last three games and have yet to keep a clean sheet in nine Serie A fixtures. Their home record offers little protection: 10 goals conceded in four matches. That makes the visitors’ scoring return a more targeted angle than backing them to win.
According to media reports, Sassuolo are without defenders Fede Leysen, Edoardo Pieragnolo and Jay Idzes, although Sebastian Walukiewicz has recovered. Fiorentina have found the net in each of their last five matches, and have six from four away league games. The reservation is that this bet needs two to win, while exactly one returns the stake. A projected score is 2–2.
Final betting view
Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.32 targets Sassuolo’s defensive weaknesses without requiring an away victory. The one-goal refund matters here, given the terms of the bet; two or more away goals remain the winning requirement.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Laziohome2:6
- Comoaway0:2
- Frosinone Calcioaway2:4
- Milanhome1:1
- Monza 1912away1:2
- Atalantahome2:2
- Internazionale Milanoaway1:2
- Comohome1:3
- Genoaaway1:2
- Napolihome1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 | Sassuolo Calcio | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14:22 | 8 |
| 16 | Monza 1912 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11:21 | 5 |
| 18 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5:15 | 5 |
Head-to-head
- 26.04.2026Fiorentina0:0Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 06.12.2025Sassuolo Calcio3:1FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
- 28.04.2024Fiorentina5:1Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 06.01.2024Sassuolo Calcio1:0FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
- 02.06.2023Sassuolo Calcio1:3FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 2 November · 12:30 New York
- Venue: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia), Redzho-Emiliya
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market assessment: a narrow away preference
Fiorentina are slight 1X2 favourites, with a 40.5% market probability against Sassuolo’s 33.5%; the draw accounts for 26%. This is a modest away preference rather than a strong expectation of victory. Under 3.5 goals carries 59.9%, while BTTS is assessed at 63.7%. All listed lines have remained broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.32
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.32
- Potential win
- 32 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.31
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +32 $