Parma vs Udinese Calcio: Serie A Match Prediction
Parma
Udinese CalcioParma host Udinese Calcio at Stadio Ennio Tardini on 28 October in Serie A’s ninth round. Both have four points from eight matches: the hosts sit 19th and the visitors 17th. This is a direct contest near the relegation line, with neither side having kept a league clean sheet.
Parma: home points offer some relief
Recent results and scoring balance
Parma have lost four of their last five matches. The latest sequence runs from a 0–3 defeat at Inter through another 0–3 against Torino to a 1–2 loss at Lazio. Their home return is less bleak.
- Three goals in four home matches underline the limited attacking return.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred in five of eight league games; BTTS in four.
Gilardino’s available options
Alberto Gilardino is now head coach following a managerial change. Pontus Almqvist is out with a calf injury, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia with a thigh injury, and Nesta Elphege after an appendectomy; Lautaro Valenti is excluded by the coach. Adrian Bernabe and Giovanni Fabbian are ready to return, while David Romero is available in attack. Those returns expand the selection options, without establishing a starting XI.
- Lazioaway1:2
- Torinohome0:3
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:3
- Genoahome2:1
- Comoaway1:2
Udinese: away output masks defensive costs
A struggling attack in the latest fixtures
Udinese’s last five games produced four defeats and a friendly draw with Pogon Szczecin. They followed a 1–2 loss at Torino with home defeats by Lecce, 0–3, and Milan, 0–2. Seven of their nine league goals came away, but that attacking output has yielded only one win in three trips.
- Nine goals conceded across those three away fixtures expose the defensive cost.
- The season average of 2.25 conceded exceeds Parma’s 1.88.
- BTTS occurred in five of eight league games, as did Over 2.5 goals.
Runjaic faces several selection decisions
David Alaba, Idrissa Gueye, Vakoun Bayo and Jakub Piotrowski are unavailable through injury. Nicolo Zaniolo, Oumar Solet and A. Zanoli remain doubtful with muscular problems. Goncalo Ramos and Filippo Terracciano have returned to the squad. Jurgen Ekkelenkamp has one league goal from three appearances, but the recent scoring drought makes attacking availability especially relevant for Kosta Runjaic.
- Milanhome0:2
- Leccehome0:3
- Torinoaway1:2
- Pogon Szczecinaway1:1
- Cagliari Calciohome0:1
Recent meetings favour the visitors
Udinese won three of the four official meetings over the past five years. They won both visits to Parma, 3–2 and 2–0, although Parma took the latest meeting 1–0 away in April. The history is lower-scoring than either club’s current league pattern.
- 18.04.2026Udinese Calcio0:1ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 29.11.2025Parma0:2Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 01.03.2025Udinese Calcio1:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 16.09.2024Parma2:3Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 21.02.2021Parma2:2Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
Coaching pressure frames the occasion
According to media reports, Udinese’s management could reconsider Runjaic’s position because of the losing run. His side played Milan on 25 October. No expert opinions, confirmed formations, full probable line-ups, suspension details or comparative strength figures are supplied.
Our prediction
Parma host Udinese Calcio at Stadio Ennio Tardini with both clubs on four points after eight Serie A matches. The recommended bet is Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) за 1.35. Parma have conceded in all eight league games this season, allowing 15 goals, including six in four home matches. Their defensive record has also failed in each of the last five fixtures, with 11 goals conceded during that run.
Udinese’s recent home results are poor, but their away attack has produced seven goals in three league trips. That output is sufficient against a Parma side that has not kept a clean sheet this season. The visitors have also regained Gonzalo Ramos and Filippo Terracciano, while Parma can bring back Adrian Bernabe, Giovanni Fabbian and David Romero. Udinese remain vulnerable themselves, with 18 goals conceded in eight rounds, so the most suitable scoreline is 1:2.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) за 1.35 is supported by Parma’s eight-match run without a clean sheet and Udinese’s seven away goals in three league outings. At least one visiting goal is the expected outcome.
FAQ
When does Parma — Udinese Calcio kick off?
The match starts on 28.10.2026 at 13:30 (New York), Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma).
What is the prediction for Parma — Udinese Calcio?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) at 1.35.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Parma win — 34%, draw — 30%, Udinese Calcio win — 36%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Lazioaway1:2
- Torinohome0:3
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:3
- Genoahome2:1
- Comoaway1:2
- Milanhome0:2
- Leccehome0:3
- Torinoaway1:2
- Pogon Szczecinaway1:1
- Cagliari Calciohome0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | 7 |
| 17 | Udinese Calcio | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:19 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 20 | Unione Venezia | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6:17 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 18.04.2026Udinese Calcio0:1ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 29.11.2025Parma0:2Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 01.03.2025Udinese Calcio1:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 16.09.2024Parma2:3Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 21.02.2021Parma2:2Udinese CalcioItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 28 October · 13:30 New York
- Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)
- Weather: 15° · precip. 3% · wind 0.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 28.10 03:10
A narrow favourite, with restraint on goals
Udinese are slight favourites in 1X2 at 37.3%, against Parma’s 32.3% and a 30.3% draw probability. The five-percentage-point gap between the teams reflects a finely balanced market rather than a strong away preference; the result lines have shown no notable change over 24 hours.
Under 2.5 goals carries a 57.3% assessment, despite both teams recording five higher-scoring league matches so far. BTTS is evenly split at 50%, but movement has favoured “No” and weakened “Yes”. That separates the market’s current direction from the season’s defensive record, across a sample of just eight matches per side.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (0.5)
- Current odds
- 1.35
- Odds at prediction
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 70%
- Market estimate
- 70%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.33
- Potential win
- 33 $
- Status
- pending
