Parma vs Torino: Serie A Match Prediction
Parma
TorinoMatch result
Parma 0:3 Torino (0:2, 0:1)
In Italy. Serie A, Torino secured a 0:3 away win against Parma, leading 0:2 at the break and 0:1 in the second half. Following this clear victory by the visiting side, our prediction of Handicap 2 (0) proved successful and the bet won.
Our prediction: Handicap 2 (0) at 1.64 — the bet won.
Parma host Torino at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A on 19 October. After six rounds, Parma are seventeenth with four points and Torino twelfth with seven, with both seeking distance from the relegation zone.
Parma: home balance and defensive pressure
Recent form and performance profile
Parma have won once, drawn once and lost three of their last five matches. They scored in three of those games and conceded in all five, most recently suffering a three-goal defeat away to Internazionale.
Their Serie A record is one win, one draw and four losses, with four goals scored and ten conceded. At home, they have one win, one draw and one defeat, with three goals for and three against across three league matches.
Strengths, weaknesses and squad situation
Parma average 0.67 goals per league match and have not kept a clean sheet in any of their six league games, leaving little margin for defensive mistakes.
Nesta Elfege will miss the match after an appendicitis operation. Pontus Almqvist and Hans Nicolussi Caviglia are also unavailable and training separately because of injuries. Abdoulaye Ndiaye has returned to group training after a knock, while Adrian Bernabe is fit again and available.
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:3
- Genoahome2:1
- Comoaway1:2
- Monza 1912home1:1
- Cremonesehome0:2
Torino: more productive attack, open defensive record
Recent form and away numbers
Torino have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches. Their latest result was a two-one home win over Udinese, following an away win at Fiorentina and a draw at Bologna.
In the league, they have scored seven goals and conceded nine, with both teams scoring in five of six matches. Away from home, they have one win, one draw and one defeat, with four goals scored and four conceded.
Key qualities and limitations
- Torino have scored in three of their last five matches, and both teams have scored in five of six league matches.
- Their league scoring average is 1.17 goals per game, higher than Parma’s.
- They have conceded in all five recent matches and have no league clean sheet.
- Four of six league matches have finished Over 2.5 goals.
Bragansa D. and Kulenovich S. are Torino’s leading league scorers, with one goal each. Emirhan Ilkhan is ruled out through injury, while Niccolo Fortini remains doubtful as he continues his recovery.
- Udinese Calciohome2:1
- Bologna 1909away1:1
- Romahome0:2
- Fiorentinaaway2:1
- Monza 1912home0:1
Head-to-head record points to narrow margins
The four official meetings over the last five years produced one Parma win, two draws and one Torino win. Torino won the most recent meeting four-one; the previous three results were a goalless draw, a two-two draw and a two-one Parma win.
- 13.03.2026Torino4:1ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 29.09.2025Parma2:1TorinoItaly. Serie A
- 08.03.2025Parma2:2TorinoItaly. Serie A
- 05.01.2025Torino0:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 03.05.2021Torino1:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
Team news and managerial priorities
Alberto Gilardino has called for intensity, defensive compactness and better attacking creation from Parma. Bernabe’s return adds a midfield and attacking option, while the absences of Almqvist and Nicolussi Caviglia reduce depth.
Ignazio Abate wants Torino to repeat their approach against Udinese and play for victory. No further lineup details, suspensions or injury updates are confirmed.
Line-ups
Parma
Starting XI: 9. David Romero, 10. Adrian Bernabe, 14. Emanuele Valeri, 15. Enrico del Prato, 16. Mandela Keita, 19. El Bilal Toure, 27. Sascha Britschgi, 34. Diego Carlos Santos, 37. Mariano Troilo, 40. Edoardo Corvi, 80. Giovanni Fabbian
Substitutes: 3. Abdoulaye Niakhate Ndiaye, 4. Vincent Sierro, 8. Benjamin Cremaschi, 20. Matija Frigan, 22. Simone Ghidotti, 25. Thomas de Martis, 29. Franco Carboni, 30. Giovanni Daffara, 32. Christian Ordonez, 47. Abdou Salam Konate, 70. Djibril Diallo, 72. Dominik Drobnic, 76. Simone Lontani
Coach: Alberto Gilardino
Torino
Starting XI: 8. Rolando Mandragora, 10. Nikola Vlasic, 15. Pietro Comuzzo, 18. Giovanni Simeone, 19. Che Adams, 20. Lucas Perri, 21. Daniel Santos Braganca, 23. Saul Coco, 44. Ardian Ismajli, 45. Rafik Belghali, 77. Alessio Cacciamani
Substitutes: 2. Nathan Patterson, 3. Cristiano Biraghi, 5. Eray Cumart, 7. Zakaria Aboukhlal, 9. Pietro Pellegri, 11. Gaetano Oristanio, 13. Ricardo Rodríguez, 17. Sandro Kulenovic, 22. Cesare Casadei, 26. Diego Mascardi, 28. Kian Fitz-Jim, 66. Gvidas Gineitis, 76. Lapo Siviero, 91. Duvan Zapata
Coach: Ignazio Abate
Our pick for Parma vs Torino
Our bet is Handicap 2 (0) 1.64. Parma have lost four of six league games and conceded in every round. Their return of four goals leaves little margin for defensive errors. Torino have scored seven across the same schedule, making the visitors better equipped to exploit another lapse.
The draw protection matters: Torino have also gone six league matches without a clean sheet, while Parma have lost only once in three home fixtures. According to media reports, Parma will be without Almqvist and Nicolussi Caviglia, although Bernabe is ready to play; Torino are missing Ilkhan. Those absences do not justify treating the visitors as clear winners, but their two victories in five official games support backing them with the stake returned on a draw. Expected score: 1-2.
Final betting verdict
Handicap 2 (0) 1.64 pairs Torino’s stronger attacking return with cover against a level finish. The visitors still need to win for the bet to pay; a Parma victory would lose the stake.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:3
- Genoahome2:1
- Comoaway1:2
- Monza 1912home1:1
- Cremonesehome0:2
- Udinese Calciohome2:1
- Bologna 1909away1:1
- Romahome0:2
- Fiorentinaaway2:1
- Monza 1912home0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 10 | Torino | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10:9 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8:17 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 20 | Unione Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6:16 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 13.03.2026Torino4:1ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 29.09.2025Parma2:1TorinoItaly. Serie A
- 08.03.2025Parma2:2TorinoItaly. Serie A
- 05.01.2025Torino0:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 03.05.2021Torino1:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 19 October · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and expected match pattern
The market makes Torino favourites at an estimated probability of 40.2%, followed by the draw at 31.1% and a Parma win at 28.7%. The moderate gap weighs Torino’s stronger recent results and scoring rate against Parma’s more balanced home record.
Under 2.5 goals carries a market probability of 60.5%, compared with 39.6% for Over 2.5, with no meaningful movement over the last twenty-four hours. BTTS (both teams to score) is assessed at 47%, against 53% for BTTS No. The unchanged line reflects no material reassessment after the latest team news, despite neither side having kept a league clean sheet.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Odds
- 1.64
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 58%
- Market estimate
- 61%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.64
- Potential win
- 64 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.57
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +64 $