Napoli — Roma Match Forecast in Italy’s Serie A
Napoli
RomaNapoli host Roma at the Diego Armando Maradona in Tour 8 of Serie A. The ninth-placed hosts are nine points behind the leaders; third-placed Roma are two points off the top and unbeaten in the league.
Napoli: attacking response with defensive questions
Napoli’s last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with 9 goals scored and 8 conceded. They scored in four of those games and conceded in four. Their latest result was a 4-3 home win over Bodo-Glimt. In Serie A, they have three wins, one draw and three defeats, with 10 goals for and 7 against.
Where Napoli can create an advantage
- Napoli have won two of their three home league matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 2.
- Kevin De Bruyne has contributed a goal in two league appearances, while Giovane Santana do Nascimento has one assist in two matches.
Defensive transitions remain a weakness: Napoli also conceded three at Villarreal and lost away to Unione Venezia without scoring. They have 10 points. Frank Anguissa and Mathias Olivera have returned to full training, while Rafa Marin is doubtful after a blow to the chest. Allegri is still rebuilding the side and addressing its defensive structure. The starting lineup and tactical shape are unconfirmed.
- Bodo-Glimthome4:3
- Unione Veneziaaway0:1
- Villarrealaway1:3
- Frosinone Calciohome3:0
- Fiorentinaaway1:1
Roma: the stronger league platform
Roma have five wins and two draws from seven Serie A matches, scoring 16 goals and conceding 3—averages of 2.29 for and 0.43 against. Away from home, they have two wins and one draw, with 6 goals scored and none conceded.
Their last five matches brought two wins, two draws and one defeat, with 11 goals for and 6 against. They have won their latest two games, against Genoa and Slovan Bratislava.
Balance, clean sheets and missing creators
- Roma kept five clean sheets in seven league matches; BTTS occurred in only two.
- They scored in four of their last five matches, including four goals against Slovan Bratislava.
- They have 17 points.
Lorenzo Pellegrini, Manu Kone and Paulo Dybala are absent, reducing Roma’s options between midfield and attack. Bryan Cristante has returned to training and may be available in Naples. Gasperini has acknowledged shortages in several positions during a congested schedule. The starting XI is unconfirmed.
- Slovan Bratislavahome4:0
- Genoahome2:0
- Real Madridhome3:4
- Comoaway0:0
- Internazionale Milanohome2:2
Recent meetings favour Napoli
Across nine official meetings in the last five years, Napoli have four wins, Roma have one, and four ended level. In the latest eight encounters, Napoli scored 10 goals and conceded 8. They won three of the last seven meetings, while the most recent finished 2:2 in Naples.
BTTS occurred in four of the last eight meetings, and the latest two in Naples finished 2:2 and 1:0. Those results contrast with Roma’s tighter league defence this season.
- 15.02.2026Napoli2:2RomaItaly. Serie A
- 30.11.2025Roma0:1NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 02.02.2025Roma1:1NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 24.11.2024Napoli1:0RomaItaly. Serie A
- 28.04.2024Napoli2:2RomaItaly. Serie A
Team news and the competitive backdrop
According to media reports, Napoli’s victory over Bodo-Glimt offered supporters only partial compensation, with a win against a direct rival still demanded. Allegri called for celebration alongside a precise review of the defensive errors.
Roma have avoided defeat in 14 of their last 15 official matches. Gasperini praised the response to squad changes in the Champions League.
Our Prediction
Roma arrive in Naples with the clearest attacking profile in this Serie A matchup: 16 goals in seven league fixtures, an average of 2.29 per game. Their away record is also efficient, with six goals scored and none conceded across three league trips. Even with Paulo Dybala, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Manu Koné unavailable, Roma have scored four goals in each of their last two matches and have won both.
Napoli’s defensive level is less reliable. They conceded in four of their last five official matches, including three against Bodo-Glimt, while their latest league defeat at Venezia followed a 3:1 Champions League loss to Villarreal. Anguissa and Olivera have returned to full training, but Rafa Marín remains doubtful after a chest injury. Roma’s attacking output, combined with Napoli’s recent defensive concessions, makes our selection Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) at 1.27. The most likely scoreline is 1:2, which keeps the wager aligned with Roma scoring at least once.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) at 1.27 is the recommended selection. Roma have scored 16 times in seven league matches, while Napoli have conceded in four of their last five official games.
FAQ
When does Napoli — Roma kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 12:00 (New York), Diego Armando Maradona (Naples).
What is the prediction for Napoli — Roma?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) at 1.27.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Napoli win — 36%, draw — 29%, Roma win — 35%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Bodo-Glimthome4:3
- Unione Veneziaaway0:1
- Villarrealaway1:3
- Frosinone Calciohome3:0
- Fiorentinaaway1:1
- Slovan Bratislavahome4:0
- Genoahome2:0
- Real Madridhome3:4
- Comoaway0:0
- Internazionale Milanohome2:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14:4 | 19 |
| 3 | Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16:3 | 17 |
| 4 | Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 9 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 10 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10:11 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 15.02.2026Napoli2:2RomaItaly. Serie A
- 30.11.2025Roma0:1NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 02.02.2025Roma1:1NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 24.11.2024Napoli1:0RomaItaly. Serie A
- 28.04.2024Napoli2:2RomaItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 24 October · 12:00 New York
- Venue: Diego Armando Maradona (Naples), Neapolʹ
- Weather: 19° · precip. 0% · wind 3.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 04:10
Market view and probability balance
Roma are narrow favourites, with a 38.3% probability of an away win. Napoli’s home win is assessed at 33.9% and the draw at 27.9%. The line has shown no notable movement in the last 24 hours.
Over 2.5 goals is assessed at 50.8%, against 49.2% for Under 2.5, while BTTS Yes carries a 56% probability. Napoli’s recent concessions and Roma’s scoring output favour goals, but the visitors’ defensive record and Napoli’s three clean sheets limit the case for backing a high-scoring match.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (0.5)
- Current odds
- 1.27
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 74%
- Market estimate
- 74%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.27
- Potential win
- 27 $
- Status
- pending
