Monza 1912 vs Napoli: Serie A Match Prediction
Monza 1912
NapoliMonza host Napoli at Brianteo in Serie A’s ninth round on 28 October. The hosts sit 15th with seven points; Napoli are 10th with 11 points. Monza have earned both their league wins at home, while Napoli have won just once on the road. That contrast makes venue-specific form central to this meeting.
Monza: home scoring offsets defensive weakness
Recent results and the home-away split
Monza’s last three league games brought a 1-3 defeat at Lazio, a 4-0 home win over Cagliari and a 2-3 loss at Torino. Across their last five matches, including two friendlies, they recorded one win, one draw and three defeats, scoring in every game. Their three home league fixtures have produced eight goals for and four against.
Attacking output versus defensive exposure
- Monza have scored 15 league goals, two more than Napoli despite sitting five places lower.
- They have conceded 18 in eight games, averaging 2.25 per match.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have each occurred in seven of eight league fixtures.
- Only one league clean sheet limits the protection their attack receives.
Personnel and availability
Matteo Pessina is out with a knee injury, removing a midfield option. Gustavo Miguel Varela has three goals and one assist in three appearances; Eddy Kouadio and Saba Goglichidze have one goal apiece.
- Torinoaway2:3
- Cagliari Calciohome4:0
- Lazioaway1:3
- Stade Brestois 29away2:2
- Cremonesehome2:3
Napoli: productive attack, uneven away returns
A busy run with defensive costs
Napoli’s latest five fixtures brought two wins, a draw and two defeats. They beat Frosinone 3-0, lost 1-3 at Villarreal and 0-1 at Venezia, then defeated Bodo-Glimt 4-3 before drawing 3-3 with Roma. Their four away league games have produced one win, one draw and two losses, with five goals at each end.
Season strengths and weaknesses
- Napoli concede 1.25 goals per league game, below Monza’s rate.
- Three clean sheets show greater defensive success over the full eight-match sample.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have each landed in four league games, a less open profile than Monza’s.
- Scott McTominay leads the listed scorers with two goals; Kevin De Bruyne and Noa Lang have one each.
Absences on the pitch and touchline
Alessandro Buongiorno is unavailable following knee surgery, Costantino Favasuli has a thigh strain and David Neres has a hamstring injury. Massimiliano Allegri will miss the match through a two-game suspension after his red card against Roma; he has declined to appeal.
- Romahome3:3
- Bodo-Glimthome4:3
- Unione Veneziaaway0:1
- Villarrealaway1:3
- Frosinone Calciohome3:0
Previous meetings favour Napoli
Napoli have won four of the six official meetings over the past five years, with one draw and one Monza victory. Napoli won the latest encounter 1-0 at Brianteo in April 2025, so this history is less goal-heavy than Monza’s current season.
- 19.04.2025Monza 19120:1NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 29.09.2024Napoli2:0Monza 1912Italy. Serie A
- 07.04.2024Monza 19122:4NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 29.12.2023Napoli0:0Monza 1912Italy. Serie A
- 14.05.2023Monza 19122:0NapoliItaly. Serie A
Reaction centres on the Roma draw
Allegri said his main regret concerned the victory lost against Roma rather than his suspension. Napoli’s stated motivation is to respond to recent league setbacks, while Monza are focused on extracting points from each fixture. Arsenal and Napoli have also been linked with an unnamed Monza forward; no independent expert assessment is supplied.
Our pick: protection against a draw
Our bet is Handicap 2 (0) 1.33 for Napoli at Brianteo. Monza have conceded 18 goals in eight league games, a weakness the visitors can exploit without needing to keep a clean sheet. Napoli have won four of the six official meetings, but their away record this season—one win, one draw and two defeats—argues for retaining the refund if this match finishes level.
Napoli need a response to their recent league setbacks, although motivation alone cannot solve their defensive problems. According to media reports, Alessandro Buongiorno and David Neres are injured, while Massimiliano Allegri is suspended; Monza are missing Matteo Pessina. The data does not provide information about the availability of confirmed starting line-ups. Monza's eight goals in three home fixtures make an away clean sheet a poor assumption, so the selection rests on Napoli finding enough attacking reward against a vulnerable defence. Predicted score: 1-2.
Final verdict
Handicap 2 (0) 1.33 backs Napoli's edge while allowing for their uneven away results: a visiting win pays, a draw returns the stake, and a Monza victory loses it.
FAQ
When does Monza 1912 — Napoli kick off?
The match starts on 28.10.2026 at 15:45 (New York), Brianteo (Monza).
What is the prediction for Monza 1912 — Napoli?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.33.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Monza 1912 win — 21%, draw — 24%, Napoli win — 54%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Torinoaway2:3
- Cagliari Calciohome4:0
- Lazioaway1:3
- Stade Brestois 29away2:2
- Cremonesehome2:3
- Romahome3:3
- Bodo-Glimthome4:3
- Unione Veneziaaway0:1
- Villarrealaway1:3
- Frosinone Calciohome3:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cagliari Calcio | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | 13 |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | 10 |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 13 | Bologna 1909 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | 8 |
| 14 | Sassuolo Calcio | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14:22 | 8 |
| 15 | Monza 1912 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | 7 |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | 7 |
Head-to-head
- 19.04.2025Monza 19120:1NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 29.09.2024Napoli2:0Monza 1912Italy. Serie A
- 07.04.2024Monza 19122:4NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 29.12.2023Napoli0:0Monza 1912Italy. Serie A
- 14.05.2023Monza 19122:0NapoliItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 28 October · 15:45 New York
- Venue: Brianteo (Monza)
- Weather: 13° · precip. 0% · wind 1.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 28.10 06:10
Market favours the visitors without a strong margin
Napoli are the 1X2 favourites with a market win probability of 54%, against 24.3% for the draw and 21.7% for Monza. That is a clear advantage, but a modest majority rather than overwhelming confidence. The goal markets lean towards Over 2.5 at 55.1% and BTTS at 56%. No notable movement has occurred over the past 24 hours across the listed markets.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.33
- Potential win
- 33 $
- Status
- pending
