Milan — Bologna 1909 prediction: Serie A match analysis
Milan
Bologna 1909Milan host Bologna at Giuseppe Meazza on 28 October in Serie A’s ninth round. The hosts sit fourth on 18 points, four behind Internazionale; Bologna are 13th with eight. Milan are defending an unbeaten league start, while the visitors seek a third successive away victory.
Milan: home attack sets the standard
Recent results and scoring patterns
Milan’s last five matches brought three wins, one draw and one defeat. They followed a 3–0 European loss at Bournemouth with a 2–0 win at Udinese on 25 October. Their other results were a 1–1 draw at Sassuolo, a 4–0 victory over Salzburg and a 3–2 win against Atalanta.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
- Three league home games have produced three wins and an aggregate score of 8–2.
- The season record of five wins and three draws puts Milan among the unbeaten sides after eight rounds.
- Both teams scored in five league matches, with only three clean sheets: opponents have regularly found a route through.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred in four of eight league games, so attacking output has not consistently produced high totals.
Selection after Udinese
Ruben Amorim may start Davide Bartesaghi and Omari Hutchinson after their performances at Udinese. A full probable XI, formation and confirmed injury or suspension list are unavailable.
- Udinese Calcioaway2:0
- Bournemouthaway0:3
- Atalantahome3:2
- FC Salzburghome4:0
- Sassuolo Calcioaway1:1
Bologna: away results outpace the overall record
Form on the road
Bologna’s last five matches yielded two wins, one draw and two defeats. A 1–0 loss at Napoli and a 1–1 draw with Torino preceded a 2–1 win at Lecce, a 3–1 defeat by Inter and a 2–0 victory at Cagliari. Their latest two away performances were victories, despite the heavy home setback between them.
Where the visitors compete
- Both league victories have come away: four road matches produced two wins and two defeats.
- Only three goals conceded away.
- Eight goals in eight league games leaves little attacking margin when the defence concedes.
- One clean sheet and three matches Over 2.5 goals suggest a low scoring rate rather than consistently secure defending.
Orsolini absent, Enem uncertain
Riccardo Orsolini will miss the match with a right hamstring injury sustained against Lecce. Jay Enem is doubtful with a tendon problem requiring his workload to be managed. No complete probable lineup or formation is confirmed.
- Cagliari Calcioaway2:0
- Internazionale Milanohome1:3
- Lecceaway2:1
- Torinohome1:1
- Napoliaway0:1
Recent meetings favour Milan
Milan have won five of the last 10 official meetings, drawing three and losing two. Milan won the latest two meetings without conceding, 1–0 and 3–0, although Bologna’s cup victory in May 2025 interrupts the broader pattern.
- 03.02.2026Bologna 19090:3MilanItaly. Serie A
- 14.09.2025Milan1:0Bologna 1909Italy. Serie A
- 14.05.2025Milan0:1Bologna 1909Coppa Italia
- 09.05.2025Milan3:1Bologna 1909Italy. Serie A
- 27.02.2025Bologna 19092:1MilanItaly. Serie A
Preparation and the coach’s demands
Palladino has called for greater intensity and commitment from Artem Dovbyk in training. That is a demand over preparation, not confirmation of a selection decision. Bologna last played on 24 October.
Our pick: Milan to make home advantage count
Our bet is W1 1.77. Milan have won all three home league games this season, scoring eight goals and conceding two. That balance matters more than attacking output alone: they have taken maximum points without needing to overcome a large defensive deficit. Against Bologna, the case rests on Milan maintaining that combination rather than producing an unusually high-scoring performance.
Bologna have conceded just three goals in four away league matches, so a comfortable margin should not be assumed. Their own return is four goals across those fixtures, and Riccardo Orsolini will miss this match with a right hamstring injury, reducing their attacking options. With the visitors missing an attacking contributor, Milan's home scoring rate is the stronger basis for the selection. Predicted score: 2–0.
Final betting view
W1 1.77 is our selection: Milan's home balance supports backing them to win, while Bologna's relatively low away concession total argues against requiring a wider margin.
FAQ
When does Milan — Bologna 1909 kick off?
The match starts on 28.10.2026 at 13:30 (New York), Giuseppe Meazza (Milan).
What is the prediction for Milan — Bologna 1909?
Our pick is W1 at 1.77.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Milan win — 56%, draw — 26%, Bologna 1909 win — 18%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Udinese Calcioaway2:0
- Bournemouthaway0:3
- Atalantahome3:2
- FC Salzburghome4:0
- Sassuolo Calcioaway1:1
- Cagliari Calcioaway2:0
- Internazionale Milanohome1:3
- Lecceaway2:1
- Torinohome1:1
- Napoliaway0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19:6 | 18 |
| 4 | Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:7 | 18 |
| 5 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | 17 |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 13 | Bologna 1909 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | 8 |
| 14 | Sassuolo Calcio | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14:22 | 8 |
Head-to-head
- 03.02.2026Bologna 19090:3MilanItaly. Serie A
- 14.09.2025Milan1:0Bologna 1909Italy. Serie A
- 14.05.2025Milan0:1Bologna 1909Coppa Italia
- 09.05.2025Milan3:1Bologna 1909Italy. Serie A
- 27.02.2025Bologna 19092:1MilanItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 28 October · 13:30 New York
- Venue: Giuseppe Meazza (Milan), Milan
- Weather: 14° · precip. 0% · wind 1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 28.10 04:00
Home favouritism, but support shifts towards Bologna
The margin-free 1X2 assessment makes Milan favourites at 58.4%, with the draw at 23.4% and Bologna at 18.3%. Over the last 24 hours, support has moved towards the away win and away from both Milan and the draw. The hosts retain a clear market advantage, but that advantage has weakened.
The goals market leans narrowly towards Over 2.5 at 53%, with support increasing. BTTS is assessed at 52.6% and has remained broadly unchanged. Neither goals market expresses strong conviction; the eight-match league samples also limit how firmly the early scoring patterns can be interpreted.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.77
- Odds at prediction
- 1.69
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 58%
- Market estimate
- 56%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.69
- Potential win
- 69 $
- Status
- pending
