Lazio vs Parma: Serie A Match Prediction and Preview
Lazio
ParmaLazio host Parma at the Olimpico in Rome on 24 October in Serie A’s eighth round. The hosts are second, level with Inter on 19 points; the visitors sit 19th with four. Lazio are trying to keep pace at the top, while Parma need points to move away from the relegation places.
Lazio: strong league form, with a home caveat
Recent results and scoring patterns
Lazio have four wins and a draw from their last five matches, although two games were friendlies. The latest was a 3:0 away win over Juventus.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- Six wins and one draw from seven league games leave Lazio unbeaten.
- Four clean sheets and just 0.57 goals conceded per game underline their defensive strength.
- At home, they have two wins and a draw, but have conceded three of their four league goals.
- Four league games finished Over 2.5; BTTS occurred in only three, so goals have not consistently required contributions from both teams.
Players and availability
Gustav Isaksen has two league goals in two appearances; Andrea Pinamonti and Nuno Tavares each have a goal and an assist from two games. Matteo Cancellieri has returned to Gennaro Gattuso’s squad. Kenneth Taylor’s participation is doubtful after an injury on 18 October.
- Juventusaway3:0
- Monza 1912home3:1
- Juve Stabiahome3:3
- A.S.D. Atletico Arezzohome2:0
- Unione Veneziaaway2:0
Parma: away losses deepen the pressure
Recent results and the away split
Parma’s last five league matches produced one win, one draw and three defeats. The victory over Genoa was followed by consecutive 0:3 losses to Inter and Torino.
Where the imbalance shows
- All three away league matches ended in defeat, with one goal scored and seven conceded.
- Parma have no clean sheets in seven league appearances.
- Their attack averages 0.57 goals per game, against 1.86 conceded.
- Four of seven matches went Over 2.5 despite Parma scoring only four goals across the entire league campaign.
Absences and selection
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia is unavailable with pubalgia, Pontus Almqvist is out with a torn calf muscle, and Nesta Elphege is not ready following an appendectomy. These absences reduce Gilardino’s selection options as he seeks a response to the latest defeats.
- Torinohome0:3
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:3
- Genoahome2:1
- Comoaway1:2
- Monza 1912home1:1
Recent meetings have been evenly balanced
The four official meetings over the past five years produced one win apiece and two draws. The two games in Rome finished 2:2 and 1:1: recent home encounters have not mirrored the current gap in the standings.
- 04.04.2026Lazio1:1ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 13.12.2025Parma0:1LazioItaly. Serie A
- 28.04.2025Lazio2:2ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 01.12.2024Parma3:1LazioItaly. Serie A
- 12.05.2021Lazio1:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
Gattuso keeps the focus on further work
Gattuso is encouraged by Lazio’s start but says the work remains ahead. That measured response contrasts with Parma’s immediate need to arrest their decline under a new coach. No separate expert assessment or additional confirmed team news is available.
Our pick for the Olimpico
Lazio can keep pace at the top against a Parma side that has lost all three league away games, scoring once and conceding seven. Our selection is W1 1.52: the visitors’ limited attacking return makes it harder for them to exploit any lapse from the hosts, while Lazio have won six of their opening seven league fixtures.
The strongest argument is the balance between Lazio’s 14 goals scored and just four conceded. Parma have yet to keep a league clean sheet, so containing the hosts would require a defensive improvement. According to media reports, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia and Pontus Almqvist are unavailable, further reducing the visitors’ options. Kenneth Taylor is doubtful for Lazio, which tempers confidence rather than overturning the selection. The home sample is still small, and two wins from three do not make this a certainty.
Final betting view
W1 1.52 is the pick, with Lazio’s scoring output and Parma’s away record carrying more weight than the recent drawn meetings in Rome. Back the hosts to win, without requiring a large margin.
FAQ
When does Lazio — Parma kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Olimpico (Rome).
What is the prediction for Lazio — Parma?
Our pick is W1 at 1.52.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Lazio win — 65%, draw — 22%, Parma win — 13%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Juventusaway3:0
- Monza 1912home3:1
- Juve Stabiahome3:3
- A.S.D. Atletico Arezzohome2:0
- Unione Veneziaaway2:0
- Torinohome0:3
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:3
- Genoahome2:1
- Comoaway1:2
- Monza 1912home1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale Milano | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21:9 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14:4 | 19 |
| 3 | Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16:3 | 17 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8:17 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 20 | Unione Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6:16 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 04.04.2026Lazio1:1ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 13.12.2025Parma0:1LazioItaly. Serie A
- 28.04.2025Lazio2:2ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 01.12.2024Parma3:1LazioItaly. Serie A
- 12.05.2021Lazio1:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 24 October · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Olimpico (Rome), Rim
- Weather: 16° · precip. 0% · wind 0.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 04:10
A clear favourite, but confidence has eased
Lazio remain the clear 1X2 favourite, with a margin-free market probability of 68.3%. Over the past 24 hours, however, their odds have risen while those for the draw and away win have shortened. The direction reflects reduced confidence in the hosts rather than a change of favourite.
The goals market is much closer: Over 2.5 carries a 51.2% probability, while movement has favoured Under. BTTS No remains more likely at 55.5%, although the line has shifted towards BTTS Yes. Parma’s low scoring rate and Lazio’s defensive record explain the initial lean; the latest movement is less emphatic about a one-sided scoring pattern.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.52
- Odds at prediction
- 1.44
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 65%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.44
- Potential win
- 44 $
- Status
- pending
