Lazio vs Cagliari Calcio Prediction: Serie A Match Analysis
Lazio
Cagliari CalcioLazio host Cagliari Calcio at the Olimpico in Serie A’s tenth round, level on points with the leaders. The visitors sit in the lower half.
Lazio: production, control and a deepening injury list
Recent form and home profile
Lazio have won four of their last five matches and drawn the other. Their current run is four straight wins, including 3:0 at Juventus, 2:1 at home to Parma and 6:2 away to Sassuolo. They scored in all five matches and conceded in four.
They remain unbeaten after nine Serie A rounds. At home, they have 3 wins and 1 draw, with 8 goals scored and 4 conceded.
Strengths and availability
- Attack: at least 2 goals in each of the last 7 Serie A matches.
- Efficiency: 22 goals in 9 league games, or 2.44 per match.
- Defence: 4 league clean sheets and 7 goals conceded.
- Contributors: Gustav Isaksen has 3 goals and 1 assist; Tijjani Noslin has 2 goals and 2 assists; Kenneth Taylor has 2 goals and 1 assist.
Albert Gudmundsson, Nicolo Rovella, Adam Marusic and Dele-Bashiru are unavailable through injury. Mattia Zaccagni is fit after the Sassuolo match. Gennaro Gattuso plans to rotate in central defence.
- Sassuolo Calcioaway6:2
- Parmahome2:1
- Juventusaway3:0
- Monza 1912home3:1
- Juve Stabiahome3:3
Cagliari: away points, but weak recent resistance
Recent form and attacking output
Cagliari have won once, drawn once and lost three times in their last five matches. They scored in three of those games and conceded in four. Their latest defeats came against Bologna at home and Roma away, with the latter ending 4:2.
Their league record is 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with only 8 goals scored. Away from home, they have 3 wins and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 9 in 5 matches.
Where the matchup can turn
- Scoring rate: 0.89 goals per league match.
- Defence: 13 goals conceded in 9 rounds.
- Recent form: three consecutive defeats.
- Daniel Maldini leads the team with 2 goals; Paul Mendy and Adam Obert have one assist each.
Mattia Felici, Harry Winks and Joao Pedro are out. Yael Trepi has returned after a two-month absence, Rodrigo Mora has resumed scoring, and Yerry Mina is expected to return to the defence. Daniel Maldini was unexpectedly omitted from the squad against Roma; he is doubtful.
- Romaaway2:4
- Bologna 1909home0:2
- Monza 1912away0:4
- Juventushome1:1
- Udinese Calcioaway1:0
Head-to-head record favours the hosts
Lazio are unbeaten in the last 7 official meetings, with 6 wins and 1 draw. The latest ended 0:0. The latest three encounters at the Olimpico ended in Lazio wins by 1:0, 2:1 and 2:0.
- 21.02.2026Cagliari Calcio0:0LazioItaly. Serie A
- 03.11.2025Lazio2:0Cagliari CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 03.02.2025Cagliari Calcio1:2LazioItaly. Serie A
- 04.11.2024Lazio2:1Cagliari CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 10.02.2024Cagliari Calcio1:3LazioItaly. Serie A
Team news and the competitive context
Lazio have 25 points, level with Inter at the top and four ahead of Roma, following 9 wins in their last 10 Serie A matches. Isaksen and Romano Floriani Mussolini are in contract talks. Noslin is targeting at least 10 goals this season after becoming the club’s leading scorer with 4.
Cagliari’s losing sequence comprises defeats to Monza, Bologna and Roma. Trepi’s return and Mina’s expected comeback expand their selection options.
Our forecast
Our bet is W1 1.49. Lazio have taken 8 wins and 1 draw in nine Serie A rounds, scoring 22 goals and conceding only 7. Their current four-match winning run includes a 3:0 victory at Juventus and a 6:2 win at Sassuolo, while they have scored at least twice in each of their last seven league matches. Cagliari arrive after three consecutive defeats to Monza, Bologna and Roma. Their league attack has produced just 8 goals in nine games.
The absences of Albert Gudmundsson, Nicolò Rovella, Adam Marušić and Dele-Bashiru reduce Lazio’s depth, but Mattia Zaccagni is fit, and the hosts have sufficient attacking output through Gustav Isaksen, Tijjani Noslin and Kenneth Taylor. Cagliari also face important personnel issues: Mattia Felici and João Pedro are unavailable, Harry Winks is out, while Daniel Maldini was omitted from the Roma squad. Lazio have won 6 of the last 7 official meetings, with one draw. The market assigns a 66.2% probability to a home win without notable line movement. Expected score: 2:0 to Lazio.
Conclusion
W1 1.49 is the recommended selection. Lazio combine the stronger season profile, superior recent scoring numbers and a clear head-to-head advantage, while Cagliari’s defensive decline makes an away upset unlikely.
FAQ
When does Lazio — Cagliari Calcio kick off?
The match starts on 01.11.2026 at 09:00 (New York), Olimpico (Rome).
What is the prediction for Lazio — Cagliari Calcio?
Our pick is W1 at 1.49.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Lazio win — 66%, draw — 21%, Cagliari Calcio win — 13%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Sassuolo Calcioaway6:2
- Parmahome2:1
- Juventusaway3:0
- Monza 1912home3:1
- Juve Stabiahome3:3
- Romaaway2:4
- Bologna 1909home0:2
- Monza 1912away0:4
- Juventushome1:1
- Udinese Calcioaway1:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22:7 | 25 |
| 2 | Internazionale Milano | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 10 | Torino | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14:14 | 13 |
| 11 | Cagliari Calcio | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8:13 | 13 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16:17 | 11 |
Head-to-head
- 21.02.2026Cagliari Calcio0:0LazioItaly. Serie A
- 03.11.2025Lazio2:0Cagliari CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 03.02.2025Cagliari Calcio1:2LazioItaly. Serie A
- 04.11.2024Lazio2:1Cagliari CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 10.02.2024Cagliari Calcio1:3LazioItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 1 November · 09:00 New York
- Venue: Olimpico (Rome), Rim
- Weather: 16° · precip. 35% · wind 3.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 31.10 10:10
Market shape and expected game script
The 1X2 market assigns Lazio a 66.2% probability of a home win, with the draw at 21% and an away win at 12.8%. The line has shown no notable movement over the last 24 hours. The bookmaker’s margin is 1.6%.
The goals market assigns Over 2.5 a 52.9% probability and Under 2.5 a 47.1% probability. BTTS No has a narrow edge at 52.1%, against 48% for BTTS Yes. Lazio’s scoring run and Cagliari’s recent concessions support the Over, while the visitors’ low scoring rate and Lazio’s head-to-head clean sheets support BTTS No.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.49
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 66%
- Market estimate
- 66%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
