Genoa vs Unione Venezia: Serie A Match Prediction
Genoa
Unione VeneziaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.44 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.25 pending
Genoa host Unione Venezia at Luigi Ferraris in Serie A’s eighth round, with both clubs near the relegation zone. Genoa sit 17th with 4 points; Venezia are 20th with 3. Genoa have conceded 13 goals, Venezia 16.
Genoa: home advantage against a fragile defence
Recent form and match profile
Genoa’s last five matches brought 2 wins, both at home, and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 7 conceded. They scored in 3 of those games and conceded in 4. Their latest result was a 0:2 defeat away to Roma, following a 2:1 home win over Fiorentina.
At home in Serie A, Genoa have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 4 goals for and 8 against. Their league averages are 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per match.
Strengths, weaknesses and personnel
- Genoa have kept no clean sheet in 7 league matches.
- BTTS (both teams to score) occurred in 4 of 7 league games, while 3 finished Over 2.5 goals.
- Milutin Osmajic and Junior Messias have each scored once in the league; Mikael Egill Ellertsson has 1 assist.
Genoa’s expected starting eleven and formation are unconfirmed.
- Romaaway0:2
- Fiorentinahome2:1
- Rapid Bucurestiaway0:2
- Parmaaway1:2
- Sudtirolhome1:0
Venezia: a dangerous response after a difficult start
Results and away performance
Venezia have lost 6 of 7 league matches, earning their only victory in the previous round by beating Napoli 1:0 at home. Their last five matches produced 1 win and 4 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 12 conceded. They scored in 4 of those games and conceded in 4.
Away from home in the league, Venezia have 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their season averages are 0.86 goals for and 2.29 against per match.
Playing resources and pressure points
Venezia scored 2 goals against Frosinone, 2 against Fiorentina and 1 against Atalanta, but failed to score against Lazio. Akor Jerome Adams and Antoine Hainaut have 1 goal each, while Simon Sohm has 1 assist.
Davide Nicola is the head coach. Venezia’s expected starting lineup and formation are unconfirmed.
- Napolihome1:0
- Atalantaaway1:3
- Laziohome0:2
- Fiorentinahome2:4
- Frosinone Calcioaway2:3
Head-to-head record favours the hosts
The last 6 official meetings produced 3 Genoa wins, 2 draws and 1 Venezia victory. Genoa scored 6 goals and conceded 4. The most recent meeting at Luigi Ferraris ended 2:0 to Genoa; the previous official encounter finished 0:2 for Venezia on their own ground.
Five of the 6 meetings finished Under 2.5 goals, and BTTS occurred in only 1—a lower-scoring record than either side’s current defensive returns suggest.
- 17.02.2025Genoa2:0Unione VeneziaItaly. Serie A
- 21.09.2024Unione Venezia2:0GenoaItaly. Serie A
- 20.07.2024Unione Venezia1:3GenoaClub Friendlies
- 22.07.2023Genoa1:4Unione VeneziaClub Friendlies
- 16.01.2023Genoa1:0Unione VeneziaItaly. Serie B
Team news before the round
Genoa are without Lorenzo Venturino, Elias Havel, Djibril Sow and Kingsley Ehizibue through injury. The absences affect midfield, attack and defence, reducing rotation options. No information on suspensions is provided.
Venezia have five unavailable players: Bartol Franjic, Marin Sverko, Pasquale Mazzocchi, Gianluca Busio and Armel Bella-Kotchap. Busio has a strain. Four of the absentees are defenders or defensive options, against a Genoa side that has scored 4 times in its 4 home league matches.
Our pick: Genoa to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.41. Genoa scored twice in their latest home league match against Fiorentina; Venezia have conceded 16 goals in 7 rounds, including 8 across 3 away defeats. The visitors’ away defensive record is the main reason to target Genoa’s goals rather than the match result.
According to media reports, Venezia are without defenders Bartol Franjic, Marin Sverko, Pasquale Mazzocchi and Armel Bella-Kotchap through injury, reducing Davide Nicola’s options for repairing that defence. Genoa’s return of 4 goals in 4 home league games calls for restraint: two goals are a credible target, not a certainty. Venezia’s clean sheet against Napoli also warns against expecting an easy breakthrough. No confirmed starting line-ups are available. Predicted score: 2:1.
Final betting verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.41 keeps the focus on the visitors’ defensive weakness without requiring a Genoa win. Two home goals win the bet, while exactly one returns the stake.
FAQ
When does Genoa — Unione Venezia kick off?
The match starts on 25.10.2026 at 10:00 (New York), Luigi Ferraris (Genoa).
What is the prediction for Genoa — Unione Venezia?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.41.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Genoa win — 45%, draw — 29%, Unione Venezia win — 26%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Romaaway0:2
- Fiorentinahome2:1
- Rapid Bucurestiaway0:2
- Parmaaway1:2
- Sudtirolhome1:0
- Napolihome1:0
- Atalantaaway1:3
- Laziohome0:2
- Fiorentinahome2:4
- Frosinone Calcioaway2:3
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Udinese Calcio | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9:16 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8:17 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 20 | Unione Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6:16 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 17.02.2025Genoa2:0Unione VeneziaItaly. Serie A
- 21.09.2024Unione Venezia2:0GenoaItaly. Serie A
- 20.07.2024Unione Venezia1:3GenoaClub Friendlies
- 22.07.2023Genoa1:4Unione VeneziaClub Friendlies
- 16.01.2023Genoa1:0Unione VeneziaItaly. Serie B
About the match
- 25 October · 10:00 New York
- Venue: Luigi Ferraris (Genoa), Genuya
- Weather: 18° · precip. 0% · wind 3.3 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 10:30
Market view and the line’s balance
The market makes Genoa favourites, with a 44.7% probability of a home win, 29.4% for a draw and 25.9% for an away win. Home advantage and the head-to-head record support that preference, but Genoa have only 1 league win from 7 matches.
The totals market assigns 51.9% to Under 2.5 and 48.1% to Over 2.5. BTTS is marginally favoured at 53.5%. No meaningful line movement has been recorded during the last 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.41
- Odds at prediction
- 1.4
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 67%
- Market estimate
- 67%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.4
- Potential win
- 40 $
- Status
- pending
