Genoa vs Juventus: Serie A Match Prediction
Genoa
JuventusGenoa host Juventus at Luigi Ferraris in the ninth round of Serie A. Genoa are sixteenth with 7 points, while Juventus are seventh with 14. Genoa need points to move away from the lower part of the table; Juventus are targeting European positions and sit 8 points behind the leaders.
Genoa: compact home approach with limited scoring output
Recent form and home profile
Genoa have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches. Their latest result was a 1:0 home victory over Unione Venezia, following a 2:0 away defeat to Roma and a 2:1 home win against Fiorentina. Genoa have scored 6 times and conceded 13 in 8 league matches. Their home record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 5 goals for and 8 against.
Genoa rely on defensive discipline and quick attacks through the flanks. Milutin Osmajic, Mikael Egill Ellertsson and Junior Messias have each scored 1 league goal; Osmajic and Ellertsson also have 1 assist each. Genoa have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches, while their league average is 0.75 goals per game.
- Home league record: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats.
- Clean sheets in the league: 1 of 8 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals: 3 of 8 league matches.
- BTTS: 4 of 8 league matches.
Squad situation and tactical choices
Samuel Viafè will be assessed in the final training session after his muscle issue proved less serious than initially feared. Ehisibue and Sou are also doubtful, while Nuredini, Venturino, Havel, Gaël Lafont, Mamedi Doukoure and Marcelo Vaz are unavailable. Alex Amorim is questionable. Coach De Rossi is waiting on potential returns, with Viafè’s availability still uncertain.
- Unione Veneziahome1:0
- Romaaway0:2
- Fiorentinahome2:1
- Rapid Bucurestiaway0:2
- Parmaaway1:2
Juventus: stronger structure, but rotation affects the balance
Results, table position and away efficiency
Juventus have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches. They won 2:1 away at Celta in the Europa League, lost 0:3 to Lazio, drew 2:2 at home with Stade Rennais and then secured a 2:0 away win over Lecce. Juventus have scored 11 and conceded 8 in 8 Serie A matches, keeping 4 clean sheets. Their away league record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with a 6:4 goal balance.
Juventus average 1.38 goals per league match, almost twice Genoa’s rate. BTTS has landed in 3 of 8 league games, while only 2 finished above 2.5 goals. Douglas Luiz de Paulo, Randal Kolo Muani and Weston McKennie have each scored once in the competition. The recent 0:3 defeat to Lazio shows that Juventus’ defensive level can drop sharply.
Absences and expected rotation
Kenan Yildiz, Khéphren Thuram, Manuel Locatelli, Francisco Conceição, Zeki Çelik, Nicolás González, Jeff Ekhator and Kamil Grabara are unavailable. Jérémie Boga and Juan Cabal have returned. Luciano Spalletti is expected to rotate, with Lloyd Kelly, Edon Zhegrova, Boga and Pape Sarr among those likely to feature before the Napoli match. Rotation may reduce continuity, but Juventus retain greater squad depth and individual quality than Genoa.
- Lecceaway2:0
- Stade Rennaishome2:2
- Laziohome0:3
- Celtaaway2:1
- Cagliari Calcioaway1:1
Head-to-head record favors the Turin side
In the last 8 official meetings, Genoa have won once, drawn twice and lost 5 times. Juventus won the last 4 encounters 3:0, 1:0, 1:0 and 2:0. Genoa failed to score in each of those 4 matches. Over the full sequence, Juventus have 10 goals and Genoa 4.
Genoa’s last 3 home meetings with Juventus produced a 2:1 win, a 1:1 draw and a 0:3 defeat. The hosts have resisted this matchup at times but have struggled to sustain attacking output across the series.
- 06.04.2026Juventus2:0GenoaItaly. Serie A
- 31.08.2025Genoa0:1JuventusItaly. Serie A
- 29.03.2025Juventus1:0GenoaItaly. Serie A
- 28.09.2024Genoa0:3JuventusItaly. Serie A
- 17.03.2024Juventus0:0GenoaItaly. Serie A
Team news, motivation and match context
Genoa have won 2 of their last 3 matches, including the 1:0 success over Venezia. At home, they adopt a more aggressive approach against stronger opponents, using defensive protection and wide counterattacks. The possible return of Viafè, Ehisibue or Sou would increase selection flexibility, but several players remain unavailable.
Juventus’ 2:0 win at Lecce keeps them focused on the European places. Spalletti’s planned rotation is the main variable: it can preserve energy for the Napoli fixture but removes several established options from the starting structure. Juventus’ controlled possession, defensive security and set-piece efficiency suit a matchup in which Genoa have produced few goals.
Our Forecast
Genoa face Juventus at Luigi Ferraris with a clear gap in league position and attacking output: the hosts have scored 6 goals in 8 Serie A matches, while Juventus have 11. Genoa have conceded in 4 of their last 5 games, and the Turin side's recent away matches include Celta and Lecce. That combination makes Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.4 the preferred option, with the recent away results also supporting the selection.
The head-to-head record adds weight to the selection. Juventus have won 5 of the last 8 official meetings, including each of the last four. Genoa have several absences, while Juventus are also without Yildiz, Thuram, Locatelli, Conceicao and Gonzalez; Boga and Cabal have returned, and rotation is expected. Even with changes, Juventus have enough attacking depth to reach the required mark. Likely score: 0:2.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.4 is the pick. Juventus’ away results, four straight head-to-head wins and Genoa’s defensive vulnerability make this the strongest outcome.
FAQ
When does Genoa — Juventus kick off?
The match starts on 28.10.2026 at 15:45 (New York), Luigi Ferraris (Genoa).
What is the prediction for Genoa — Juventus?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.4.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Genoa win — 18%, draw — 27%, Juventus win — 55%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Unione Veneziahome1:0
- Romaaway0:2
- Fiorentinahome2:1
- Rapid Bucurestiaway0:2
- Parmaaway1:2
- Lecceaway2:0
- Stade Rennaishome2:2
- Laziohome0:3
- Celtaaway2:1
- Cagliari Calcioaway1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Frosinone Calcio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:8 | 14 |
| 8 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 15 | Monza 1912 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | 7 |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | 7 |
| 17 | Udinese Calcio | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | 4 |
Head-to-head
- 06.04.2026Juventus2:0GenoaItaly. Serie A
- 31.08.2025Genoa0:1JuventusItaly. Serie A
- 29.03.2025Juventus1:0GenoaItaly. Serie A
- 28.09.2024Genoa0:3JuventusItaly. Serie A
- 17.03.2024Juventus0:0GenoaItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 28 October · 15:45 New York
- Venue: Luigi Ferraris (Genoa), Genuya
- Weather: 15° · precip. 0% · wind 3.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 28.10 03:10
Market view and expected match pattern
The market makes Juventus the clear favorite, assigning the away win a 56.6% probability, compared with 18.1% for Genoa and 25.2% for a draw. The 1X2 line has shown no notable movement over the last 24 hours, indicating a stable assessment rather than a late reaction to team news.
The goal markets are more cautious. Under 2.5 goals is rated at 54.6%, while Over 2.5 stands at 45.4%. BTTS No is marginally preferred at 53.3%, against 46.7% for BTTS Yes. The pricing reflects Juventus’ 4 clean sheets in 8 league matches, Genoa’s low scoring rate and the recent head-to-head run in which Juventus repeatedly won without conceding. The main counterargument is Juventus’ rotation and their 7 goals conceded in the last 5 matches across all competitions.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.4
- Odds at prediction
- 1.32
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.32
- Potential win
- 32 $
- Status
- pending
