Frosinone Calcio–Lecce Match Forecast: Serie A Analysis
Frosinone Calcio
LecceFrosinone host Lecce at Stadio Benito Stirpe on 29 October in Serie A's ninth round. The hosts are sixth with 14 points, five ahead of their 12th-placed visitors, and can keep pressure on fifth-placed Milan. Lecce have lost three of their last five league matches.
Frosinone: scoring power with defensive costs
Recent form and the home advantage
Frosinone's last five outings brought three wins, a draw and a defeat, including a friendly against Benevento. Their latest league results were a 3:0 defeat at Napoli, a 4:2 home win over Sassuolo and a 4:4 draw at Atalanta: eight goals scored in the latter two games, but nine conceded across all three.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- Three wins in four home league games, with nine goals scored and five conceded.
- A season average of 2.13 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game.
- Over 2.5 goals in five of eight league fixtures; two clean sheets.
Available players and attacking options
Federico Monterisi and Giorgio Calvani are expected to be available after minor problems. Daniel Birligea returned to the squad against Atalanta and could feature from the bench. Romano Schmid scored twice in that match, while wing-back Gabriele Bracaglia supplied three assists. Antonio Raimondo has three league goals in three appearances.
- Atalantaaway4:4
- Sassuolo Calciohome4:2
- Napoliaway0:3
- Benevento Calciohome2:1
- Comohome2:0
Lecce: away results offer a different picture
Uneven results and limited scoring
Lecce followed a 3:0 victory at Udinese with a 2:0 home defeat by Juventus. Their last five league games produced seven goals scored and nine conceded, with blanks against Milan and Juventus. Away from home, they have two wins and two defeats, with five goals scored and four conceded.
Where the balance lies
- Nine goals in eight league matches leave Lecce below Frosinone's scoring average.
- Fourteen goals conceded and five defeats.
- BTTS (both teams to score) in two of eight games, despite five finishing Over 2.5 goals.
Absences and selection limits
Midfielder Lassana Coulibaly will miss the match through injury, along with several unnamed rotation players. Jamil Siebert, Amar Abdirahman Ahmed Fatah and Konan Ignace Jocelyn N'dri each have one league goal in three appearances.
- Juventushome0:2
- Udinese Calcioaway3:0
- Bologna 1909home1:2
- Milanaway0:3
- Monza 1912home3:2
Previous meetings favour Lecce
Lecce won two and drew two of the four official meetings across the past five years. Those fixtures produced seven goals, with Frosinone scoring three times. Both games at this venue ended level, most recently 1:1 in March 2024. The latest meeting was over two years ago.
- 03.03.2024Frosinone Calcio1:1LecceItaly. Serie A
- 16.12.2023Lecce2:1Frosinone CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 02.04.2022Lecce1:0Frosinone CalcioItaly. Serie B
- 20.11.2021Frosinone Calcio0:0LecceItaly. Serie B
- 20.03.2021Frosinone Calcio0:3LecceItaly. Serie B
The wider pre-match picture
Lecce are unbeaten in seven games against Frosinone, a run extending beyond those four meetings. The forecast is dry at 15°C with light wind, so rain and strong gusts are not expected to affect play.
Our scoring forecast
Frosinone’s attack is the focus at Stadio Benito Stirpe: our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.44. The hosts have scored 17 goals in eight league games, including nine in four at home. That home average of 2.25 goals puts the target below their scoring rate, although this remains a small sample.
Lecce have conceded only four goals in four away fixtures, so their overall defensive record should not be mistaken for persistent trouble on the road. Still, according to media reports, injured midfielder Lassana Coulibaly and several rotation players will miss out. Frosinone offer threats from midfield and wide areas: Romano Schmid scored twice against Atalanta, while Gabriele Bracaglia supplied three assists. Those contributions make the hosts less dependent on a single finisher. Predicted score: 2:1.
The final call
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.44 targets Frosinone’s scoring rather than their ability to protect a lead. Lecce’s away defending is the main risk, but the hosts’ home output supports backing at least two goals.
FAQ
When does Frosinone Calcio — Lecce kick off?
The match starts on 29.10.2026 at 13:30 (New York), Stadio Benito Stirpe (Frosinone).
What is the prediction for Frosinone Calcio — Lecce?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.44.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Frosinone Calcio win — 57%, draw — 23%, Lecce win — 20%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Atalantaaway4:4
- Sassuolo Calciohome4:2
- Napoliaway0:3
- Benevento Calciohome2:1
- Comohome2:0
- Juventushome0:2
- Udinese Calcioaway3:0
- Bologna 1909home1:2
- Milanaway0:3
- Monza 1912home3:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:7 | 18 |
| 6 | Frosinone Calcio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:8 | 14 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | 10 |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 13 | Bologna 1909 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | 8 |
Head-to-head
- 03.03.2024Frosinone Calcio1:1LecceItaly. Serie A
- 16.12.2023Lecce2:1Frosinone CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 02.04.2022Lecce1:0Frosinone CalcioItaly. Serie B
- 20.11.2021Frosinone Calcio0:0LecceItaly. Serie B
- 20.03.2021Frosinone Calcio0:3LecceItaly. Serie B
About the match
- 29 October · 13:30 New York
- Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe (Frosinone)
- Weather: 15° · precip. 0% · wind 1.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 28.10 14:20
Market confidence centres on the hosts
Over the past 24 hours, the home-win odds have shortened while the draw and away-win odds have drifted.
Under 3.5 goals retains a narrow market preference, though movement has been towards Over. BTTS is favoured at 63.7%, with no notable movement; Lecce's eight-match sample is too small to establish a settled pattern.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.44
- Odds at prediction
- 1.48
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 64%
- Market estimate
- 65%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
