Fiorentina vs Atalanta match forecast: Italy Serie A
Fiorentina
AtalantaFiorentina host Atalanta at Artemio Franchi in Serie A Tour 9. The hosts sit eighteenth with four points from eight matches; Atalanta are eleventh with ten points.
Fiorentina: fragile home record and constant scoring
Recent form and home pattern
Fiorentina have lost their last three matches, most recently 2:1 away to Internazionale. Their last five games brought one win, one draw and three losses, with seven goals scored and eight conceded. They scored in all five and kept their only clean sheet against Pisa.
At home in the league, Fiorentina are winless in four matches: one draw, three defeats, three goals scored and nine conceded.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
- BTTS landed in six of eight league fixtures.
- Seven of eight league games finished Over 2.5.
- Fiorentina have conceded nineteen league goals without a clean sheet.
Alejandro Jimenez and Marin Pongracic have one goal each, while Nicolo Fagioli has one assist. Fiorentina have maintained their scoring run, but their defensive record leaves little room for an attack to miss chances.
Squad situation
Riccardo Sottil is ruled out through injury. Franco Mastantuono remains doubtful after a long flight and is training individually, with his condition being monitored until matchday. Neither a starting formation nor a complete probable lineup is confirmed.
- Internazionale Milanoaway1:2
- Comohome1:3
- Genoaaway1:2
- Napolihome1:1
- Pisahome3:0
Atalanta: more attacking output, but severe absences
Recent results and away performance
Atalanta’s last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats. They scored twelve and conceded eleven, scoring in four games and conceding in all five. Their latest result was 4:4 against Frosinone, following a 3:2 defeat at Milan and a 2:0 loss at Ajax.
They have lost all three Serie A away fixtures, scoring three goals and conceding seven.
Where the numbers point
- Atalanta average 1.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per league match.
- BTTS landed in six of eight league matches.
- Six of eight league fixtures finished Over 2.5.
Nikola Krstovic leads the attack with five goals and two assists in three tournament appearances. Eljif Elmas has one goal and one assist but is suspended after a red card, removing a productive option from the attacking rotation.
Injuries and availability
Atalanta have eight confirmed injury absences: Isak Hien, Kamal Deen Sulemana, Odilon Kossounou, Thomas Pompée, Sead Kolasinac, Giacomo Raspadori, Giorgio Scalvini and Franck Kessie. Raul Bellanova is doubtful after a knock against Frosinone. The absences reduce options in defence, wide areas and midfield. No lineup is confirmed.
- Frosinone Calciohome4:4
- Ajaxaway0:2
- Milanaway2:3
- Pafoshome3:1
- Unione Veneziahome3:1
Head-to-head record favours the hosts
Across twelve official meetings over the last five years, Fiorentina have won six, drawn two and lost four. In the eight most recent encounters, they scored twelve goals and conceded fourteen.
At Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina won three of the latest four listed meetings, each by one goal, and drew once. They scored six and conceded three across those games; the latest meeting in Florence finished 1:1. Their current home league record falls short of that head-to-head return.
- 22.05.2026Fiorentina1:1AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 30.11.2025Atalanta2:0FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
- 30.03.2025Fiorentina1:0AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 15.09.2024Atalanta3:2FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
- 02.06.2024Atalanta2:3FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
News, schedule pressure and tactical context
Atalanta coach Maurizio Sarri has criticised the congested calendar, with Serie A and Conference League fixtures played in quick succession. The club has stressed the importance of every league point. Rotation and reduced defensive options complicate that schedule for a side yet to earn an away league point.
Our pick: Fiorentina to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.33. Fiorentina have scored in all five of their latest matches, while Atalanta have conceded in each of theirs. The visitors have also allowed seven goals across three Serie A away games. That defensive record makes the hosts’ scoring total preferable to backing them to win.
According to media reports, Atalanta will be without Isak Hien, Odilon Kossounou, Sead Kolasinac and Giorgio Scalvini through injury. Fiorentina have scored in all four home meetings listed, although three produced just one home goal. Their own return of three goals in four home league fixtures is the main reservation: recent scoring consistency has not yet translated into frequent multi-goal performances. A possible score is 2:1.
Final betting verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.33 targets Atalanta’s depleted defence without requiring a Fiorentina victory. Two home goals win the bet, while exactly one returns the stake—a useful safeguard given the hosts’ limited home output.
FAQ
When does Fiorentina — Atalanta kick off?
The match starts on 29.10.2026 at 15:45 (New York), Artemio Franchi (Florence).
What is the prediction for Fiorentina — Atalanta?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.33.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Fiorentina win — 43%, draw — 26%, Atalanta win — 31%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Internazionale Milanoaway1:2
- Comohome1:3
- Genoaaway1:2
- Napolihome1:1
- Pisahome3:0
- Frosinone Calciohome4:4
- Ajaxaway0:2
- Milanaway2:3
- Pafoshome3:1
- Unione Veneziahome3:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | 10 |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 17 | Udinese Calcio | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:19 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:15 | 4 |
Head-to-head
- 22.05.2026Fiorentina1:1AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 30.11.2025Atalanta2:0FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
- 30.03.2025Fiorentina1:0AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 15.09.2024Atalanta3:2FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
- 02.06.2024Atalanta2:3FiorentinaItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 29 October · 15:45 New York
- Venue: Artemio Franchi (Florence)
- Weather: 14° · precip. 0% · wind 0.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 28.10 16:00
Market view and available prices
The market makes Fiorentina narrow favourites, assigning a 42.9% probability to a home win, 26.1% to a draw and 31.1% to an away win. The margin is 1.6%, and the line has shown no notable movement over the last twenty-four hours.
BTTS Yes is the preferred bet, with a market probability of 60.8%, compared with 57.5% for Over 2.5. Both teams’ scoring and conceding records support that choice more directly than backing either side in 1X2.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
